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Nawar Alsaadi  

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  • Poseidon Concepts: Storms Ahead [View article]
    Thanks Scul, my guess a lot of those guys are in hiding right now; I really feel bad for the income investors who were sold the story as a safe income stock.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 16, 2012. 05:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    from JP Morgan this morning:

    We expect propane supply growth from field production to continue in 2013 at a pace of approximately 10% yoy, but increasing volumes of exports out of the US Gulf Coast will likely help rebalance inventories to bring total stocks back to a normal range by 2Q2013. Assuming North America experiences a normal
    winter, seasonal heating demand could shift the fundamental balances enough to bring propane prices back toward the historical relationship with WTI crude oil from recently depressed levels. Propane prices could rebound to a range of $1.10 to $1.35/gallon—approxima... 50% to 60% of WTI—given our
    forecast for a $95/bbl average for WTI in 1Q2013. While we are not overly optimistic on the future outlook for NGLs in general, some support from seasonal and export factors could provide upside for propane prices in the first half of 2013.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 15, 2012. 06:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • France Telecom: An Opportunity To Buy This 10% Dividend Yielder At 52-Week Lows [View article]
    Great article, I fully agree France Telecom is an excellent yield investment in the current environment, their growth markets should certainly counter the current weakness in the core, it is worth noting that France Telecom has an excellent triple play offering (IPTV, High speed internet and phone service), I have tried their IPTV product while I was living in Paris, it is certainly far better than what I have seen in North America.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 14, 2012. 07:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Aharon. Indeed, events are unfolding to the benefit of shareholders. I believe many investors remain unaware of the upcoming income stream from Equal Energy and the associated upside from having a yield stock in the current low rates environment; buying at those levels certainly makes tremendous sense.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 6, 2012. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    This morning the EIA reported very bullish propane demand/supply numbers and a further shrinkage in the storage differential vs 2011:

    Propane demand:

    Weekly number: 1.33m vs 978K or 36% increase vs 2011
    4 weeks average: 1.32m vs 1.03m or 28.7% increase vs 2011

    Propane supply:

    Weekly number: 1.267m vs 1.155m or 9.6% increase vs 2011
    4 weeks average: 1.285m vs 1.141m or 12.6% increase vs 2011

    Storage:

    73.9m vs 60.3m or 22.7% more than 2011, however this presents a decrease from 26% excess storage last week.

    http://1.usa.gov/QX1O8f

    It is worth noting however that Enterprise expanded export terminal will enter into service in January 2013 instead of December 2012 apparently due to slight construction delays.

    It is also worth noting that the upcoming EIA report could also turn out to be a bullish report due to the effects of Sandy, propane refinery production in the east coast probably slowed down due to the refinery shutdowns, meanwhile propane demand probably increased due to propane generators demand, and increased propane demand for heating due to colder weather.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Nov 1, 2012. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Samura, you might be right about this, I am trying to confirm this but Merrill Lynch has not included it in their net export capacity increase estimate for 2013, thus it is possible that has been delayed. The delay of Vitol puts further onus on the weather, if we get a normal winter not having Vitol would not have a material impact on the article conclusion.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 24, 2012. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Anchorite, if the goal is to have a hedge than you need to go long both of them since those stocks react differently to rising/declining propane prices, if you short PDH and go long EQU you would be double long, so you need to choose going short PDH or long EQU if you don't wish to have a hedged position.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 23, 2012. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Interestingly enough today Merrill Lynch issued a research note confirming the findings in my article, from the Merrill note:

    In a note to investors, the bank said the US propane market would rebalance in 2013 from its current excess of supply as greater export opportunities opened up and winter heating demand recovered.

    The bank added that while propane in the US has a broad production base, which would ensure amply supply, a normal winter would support demand growth on a year-over-year basis.

    Beginning in 2013, the spread between ethane and propane will likely widen compared with current levels, as propane renews its correlation with crude oil, and traders meet export-led demand.

    The expected surge in exports will also narrow the difference between prices of propane at Mont Belvieu, Texas, and in Northwest Europe, it added. Currently, Mont Belvieu propane is trading at a 49% discount to European levels, compared with a discount of 1% between 2002 and 2009.

    http://bit.ly/Tcdiqj

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 22, 2012. 11:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nexen (NXY) shares -10% premarket following Canada's decision to nix the Petronas/Progress Energy deal over the weekend. Opportunity? "You've got to look at each deal on its own," writes Michael Babad, suggesting the government could see the Cnoonc/Nexen takeover in a different light than other recent high-profile rejections. [View news story]
    I actually think this is bullish for the Nexen deal, I think the government is using the Progress review as a way to show that those deals are not rubber stamped, now the media will cover this rejection for the next couple of weeks and thus communicating to Canadians that the government is “doing its job”, Petronas already had a JV with Progress to build the LNG terminal and develop their Montney acreage so they are taking little risk by blocking the deal, even if Petronas doesn’t come back with better terms, the JV should still go through.

    Rejecting both the Progress and Nexen deal would send a terrible message to the investment community that can halt the development of Canada energy resources, this is another reason why this rejection is bullish for the Nexen deal, they decided to play hard ball with Malaysia and will likely give a pass to China, even though if Petronas comes back with better terms they will likely approve that deal as well.

    It is shameful however that Progress and its investors are being used and abused in this manner, but this is politics at its finest!.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 22, 2012. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Douglas, while I believe rising propane prices (due to rising exports) will pressure PDH margins, I am less convinced that PGP prices will have a similar rise mainly because of the switching from naphtha to ethane as a feed-stock in ethylene cracking which reduces the production of PGP, I believe this is a key reason why PGP prices have held up while propane prices took a dive, thus the weakness for PDH is likely to come from propane pricing rising faster than an offsetting reaction in PGP prices.

    Unfortunately, I don't have access to a public source for PGP prices.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 22, 2012. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks Scul. Adam just finished an updated model assuming a modest 2.5% growth in production, under such model the starting dividend would be $1.06 a share in a normalized pricing environment (NG $4.25, NGL $50, WTI $90), meaning within 5 years the dividend would grow to $1.2 if increased at 2.5% per year.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 21, 2012. 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protected Principal Retirement Strategy: Eagle Energy Trust [View article]
    I don't believe Eagle has a finite life, they have the option to buy new assets, something they have done earlier this year with their acquisition in the Permian.

    By all means, thank you for shading light on this growing sector, I am quite familiar with it due to my activism at Equal Energy (EQU), where I have encouraged the management to adopt this model for their US assets. So far there has been three trusts that followed this model (Eagle, Parallel and Argent), a forth one is in the way by the end of the month (Meranex Energy Trust), with the current thirst for yield, I believe those trusts will continue to gain in appeal.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 17, 2012. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    Thanks for the update Scul, I am expecting an excellent price for Equal's Lochend Cardium assets due to the interest of multiple buyers, and once that piece of the puzzle is done, Equal can move to the final phase of converting into an income entity. If the sale is expected this week as Alta is claiming, Equal trust/income conversion and subsequent upward valuation adjustment should be forthcoming very shortly.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 15, 2012. 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Management Alignment: Equal Vs. Zargon Energy [View article]
    Global, they do read them, prior to the start of the strategic review I published a series of articles exposing the management shortcomings and arguing for a strategic review. Shortly after I received an email from the CFO/CEO and the ex-Chairman highlighting that my "blogging" was not helpful!.

    I can assure you that they are certainly not happy with shareholders getting organized and voicing their concerns, no management of any public company likes this kind of exposure.

    I do believe however that the company new Chairman Mr. Botterill has a genuine interest in righting what is wrong with this company, and I feel comfortable that he will deliver at the conclusion of the strategic review. I met with the man personally and communicated with him on several occasions, his approach with shareholders is vastly different from what I have experienced with this company in the past.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 10, 2012. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Costs reportedly are ballooning for several Norwegian field development projects as the tight supply market takes its toll on budgets. Talisman Energy's (TLM) stalled Yme project faces a 188% cost overrun, BP is confronting major cost challenges to its Skarv and Greater Valhall projects, and Eni’s (E) Goliat field shows a 20% cost increase. [View news story]
    The cost of the marginal oil barrel continue to creep up, this is why oil prices can't decline too much, the era of cheap oil is over.

    Regards,
    Nawae
    Oct 10, 2012. 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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