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Nawar Alsaadi

 
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  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for your comment Douglas, while I believe rising propane prices (due to rising exports) will pressure PDH margins, I am less convinced that PGP prices will have a similar rise mainly because of the switching from naphtha to ethane as a feed-stock in ethylene cracking which reduces the production of PGP, I believe this is a key reason why PGP prices have held up while propane prices took a dive, thus the weakness for PDH is likely to come from propane pricing rising faster than an offsetting reaction in PGP prices.

    Unfortunately, I don't have access to a public source for PGP prices.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 22 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Propane Prices Are Set To Rebound Sharply In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks Scul. Adam just finished an updated model assuming a modest 2.5% growth in production, under such model the starting dividend would be $1.06 a share in a normalized pricing environment (NG $4.25, NGL $50, WTI $90), meaning within 5 years the dividend would grow to $1.2 if increased at 2.5% per year.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 21 02:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Protected Principal Retirement Strategy: Eagle Energy Trust [View article]
    I don't believe Eagle has a finite life, they have the option to buy new assets, something they have done earlier this year with their acquisition in the Permian.

    By all means, thank you for shading light on this growing sector, I am quite familiar with it due to my activism at Equal Energy (EQU), where I have encouraged the management to adopt this model for their US assets. So far there has been three trusts that followed this model (Eagle, Parallel and Argent), a forth one is in the way by the end of the month (Meranex Energy Trust), with the current thirst for yield, I believe those trusts will continue to gain in appeal.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 17 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    Thanks for the update Scul, I am expecting an excellent price for Equal's Lochend Cardium assets due to the interest of multiple buyers, and once that piece of the puzzle is done, Equal can move to the final phase of converting into an income entity. If the sale is expected this week as Alta is claiming, Equal trust/income conversion and subsequent upward valuation adjustment should be forthcoming very shortly.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 15 10:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Management Alignment: Equal Vs. Zargon Energy [View article]
    Global, they do read them, prior to the start of the strategic review I published a series of articles exposing the management shortcomings and arguing for a strategic review. Shortly after I received an email from the CFO/CEO and the ex-Chairman highlighting that my "blogging" was not helpful!.

    I can assure you that they are certainly not happy with shareholders getting organized and voicing their concerns, no management of any public company likes this kind of exposure.

    I do believe however that the company new Chairman Mr. Botterill has a genuine interest in righting what is wrong with this company, and I feel comfortable that he will deliver at the conclusion of the strategic review. I met with the man personally and communicated with him on several occasions, his approach with shareholders is vastly different from what I have experienced with this company in the past.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 10 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Costs reportedly are ballooning for several Norwegian field development projects as the tight supply market takes its toll on budgets. Talisman Energy's (TLM) stalled Yme project faces a 188% cost overrun, BP is confronting major cost challenges to its Skarv and Greater Valhall projects, and Eni’s (E) Goliat field shows a 20% cost increase. [View news story]
    The cost of the marginal oil barrel continue to creep up, this is why oil prices can't decline too much, the era of cheap oil is over.

    Regards,
    Nawae
    Oct 10 02:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Moved My Peak Oil? [View article]
    I think this articles misses the point of peak oil, yes peak oil can be defined by production reaching a maximum and declining, but it can also be defined by the lack of affordable oil, the world is well supplied today because global prices are at $110 in the midst of a very weak economy, the marginal barrel today cost $80 to $90 a barrel; with that in mind, it is safe to say that sub $80 oil has peaked. I am sure we can squeeze even more supplies at $150 or $200, this is why a peak oil discussion should take into consideration the pricing aspect of the equation, from that vintage point we are well past the peak.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 9 10:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Management Alignment: Equal Vs. Zargon Energy [View article]
    Scul,

    Indeed, if they can't get a good price for the Cardium, it is envisageable to keep the Cardium a bit longer, while proceeding with a sizable buyback. Your idea makes a lot of sense in that scenario, even though I do believe that they will get an excellent price for the Cardium, my understanding is that there are a lot bidders for this asset.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 9 10:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Management Alignment: Equal Vs. Zargon Energy [View article]
    Thank you Patrick, indeed this management team has demonstrated a total disregard for the shareholder base, unfortunately this is not unique to Equal, you often find public company managers who pray on the fact that public shareholders are too small and too fragmented to make a difference. However, the "free ride" is over, as long as this company remains independent Klapko will be held accountable and if he doesn't deliver he will be replaced along with all the board members who allowed this situation to persist.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 9 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Management Alignment: Equal Vs. Zargon Energy [View article]
    You bet rj, but this was the past, as long as shareholders remain vigilant the mistakes of the past wont be repeated, this management needs to understand that the "free ride" is over, shareholders are here to stay and wont rest until their demands are met and the management held accountable.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 8 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Management Alignment: Equal Vs. Zargon Energy [View article]
    Thanks ghrcap. Indeed I believe Botterill deserves the benefit of the doubt, I believe he is indeed working and genuinely trying to unlock shareholder value, and I doubt that he would allow the Klapko mess to continue for much longer under his chairmanship. I have informed him personally that shareholders will continue to back him as long as he keeps moving in the right direction.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 8 12:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gasfrac Energy Needs Strategic Options  [View instapost]
    Propane requires 20% of the quantity, and it also can be recovered, if the propane is recovered the cost is about 18% more, if it not the cost could be 50% to 100% more.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 7 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    herepog, yes launching a buyback as soon as possible is a sensible policy, the company assets are trading at a major discount to their net asset value, such a buyback will be very beneficial for the shareholders. I do think however, they wont go ahead with a buyback until Canada is completely sold and a final decision is taken on the Central Oklahoma assets. By proceeding as such they retain optionality on their use of cash until a clear path is established.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 6 07:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    Thanks Global, certainly NGL & NG prices will play a key role in Equal ultimate valuation, I am optimistic about the outlook for NGLs specifically propane as I have written in August:

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 6 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equal Energy & The Theater Of The Absurd [View article]
    Dean,

    Here is my last update on Gasfrac:
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I believe the technology continue to have merits, however the management team certainly has been a disappointment, and unlike Equal where investors are protected by the intrinsic value of the oil and gas reserves, a company like Gasfrac doesn't have this type protection.

    At this stage & after the shakeup, it is hard to make a call on that company, they could go both ways, either be acquired for a decent premium by a larger service provider, or they may recapitalize and significantly dilute existing shareholders.

    Since this is an Equal article, you are welcome to message me about Gasfrac, if you have other pressing questions.

    Regards,
    Nawar
    Oct 6 10:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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431 Comments
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