Nawar Alsaadi

Expect Oil Prices to Rise: Three Major Oil Exporters Warn About Production

150m to 250 barrels, means 45m to 75m barrels in extractable reserves, this doesn't even cover the world consumption for one day!. This COP is insignificant.

Some think that since we peaked, no one will find anymore oil, companies will continue to find oil for decades, however the quantity or quality will not match what we discovered in the last 150 years.

Many don't know that oil onshore production peaked in 1982, and most oil today is produced offshore, companies still find oil here and there on shore, but they never reversed the peak.

Regards,
Nawar

Expect Oil Prices to Rise: Three Major Oil Exporters Warn About Production

Actually the fanfare about this BP find is a further confirmation of peak oil, companies now are digging for oil 11 kilometers (35000 feet) under the ground of the ocean!? To find enough extractable oil that would satisfy the world needs based on current consumption levels for 12 days!? … and this is not to mention that the oil is supposed to hit the market in 2020…assuming we don’t have too many hurricanes!

Regards,
Nawar

Expect Oil Prices to Rise: Three Major Oil Exporters Warn About Production

"What is happening Nawar ? Is NEP falling apart ?"

Far from it!, I believe "seasaw" gave you the best answer, the short term fluctuations in the stock price are not necessarily reflective of the company intrinsic value; I believe the most important growth phase for the company will take place in the next 4 quarters, as the company resumes drilling at full speed and as they execute their long term growth initiative in terms of an acquisition or a new lease; all this in the context of a rebounding economy and much better oil prices.

Regards,
Nawar


On Sep 02 12:03 PM cuewen wrote:

> NEP has fallen more than 15% since last week from 5.60 to 4.40 now.
>
> What is happening Nawar ? Is NEP falling apart ?

Iraqi Oil: Black Gold or Black Hole?

The central government does now allow the Kurds to export any oil, thus unless an accord is signed between the Kurds and Baghdad, I don’t see DNO oil going anywhere.

Regards,
Nawar




On Apr 27 12:59 PM D Baker wrote:

> What's your take on Kurdish oil, e.g. DNO? Will the taps ever open?

Iraqi Oil: Black Gold or Black Hole?

What about it? Iraq transparency score dipped from 2.2 in 2003 to 1.3 in 2008, Is that what you are referring to?, by all means you can check the numbers here:

www.transparency.org/p...

Regards,
Nawar



On Apr 26 05:21 PM maj den wrote:

> Mr. Nawar Alsaadi,
>
> Check your data points in chart one.
>
> regards.
>
> de Shon

Who Ends Up With the Oil? We Do.

As long as oil is the backbone for economic growth, and as long as the US economy continue to grow while importing expensive oil, the net effect is a positive for the US economy, the US is exchanging dollars for oil, which is the life blood of the economic growth in this country and the world, those who think in terms of transfer of wealth forget that this oil is not just imported and burned in a statuesque, it is imported to power the growing engine of the US and world economy, perhaps the net benefit from oil is less today compared to when oil was at $20, but the equation is still a positive one.

Regards,
Nawar

Oil Prices, Global GDP, and Net Oil Exports

Your observation Mark is right on target, I believe many analysts focus on oil production rather then oil exports, while it is oil available for export that determine the oil price in the international markets and not oil production.

Often we see a decline in oil exports after a country production peaks, such as in the UK, Mexico and Norway, however a more troubling trend is the decrease of exports in countries with growing production such as Oman, due to high internal consumption, Oman oil production grew by 5.1% in the first five months of 2008, however oil exports dipped by 5.1% due to the economy growing at a fast 12.9% due to high oil prices:

www.tradearabia.com/ne...

A more significant player which experienced a dip in oil exports of late is Russia, Russia now is experiencing a flat to slightly decreasing oil production for the first time in 10 years, Russia has played a key role in supplying the world markets in the last few years, however flat to decreasing production will have a major impact on Russia’s oil exports, as internal consumption roars ahead, an example of that, is Russia becoming Europe biggest car market (ahead of Germany) for the first time ever, due to 40%+ car sales growth in 2008.

Regards,
Nawar

The Oil Bubble Will Meet the Same Fate as Tech, Housing

What the bubble prophets continue to ignore is a simple fact: Oil is a finite commodity, unlike internet stocks (manufactured in wall street), or housing (built and stays there), or Gold (extracted and remains there), or food (grown year after year), oil once used is gone forever, what the fundamental oil guys are saying is that the “easy” oil has been extracted used and burned, what remains is a harder to tap, harder to refine and harder to transport oil, thus a possible oil shortage will happen in the next few years as supply of sweet crude does not catch up with demand.

However the market is doing its trick, the market have risen so much as to align oil supply with crude demand, the goal of a rising oil price is: demand destruction, this is how markets function, this is their function, their function is to match supply with demand, and they have done their magic.

The question now is not about how high oil will go, the question is for how long oil prices will remain elevated?, as long as supply remain tight, prices will remain elevated, since lower prices will lead to more demand and quickly reverse oil prices higher again, for the oil price to push higher $150+ either supply need to decline further, or demand need to increase while supply remain constrained.

The world of sub $100+ is gone and probably gone for ever, as the world continue to consume 3 barrels of oil for each barrel is discovers, thus it is logical that the remaining reserves will continue to gain in value as the scarcity premium grows with time.

Further more it is worthwhile to remember 2 things going forward, world oil reserves in the middle east are questionable, as many countries such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE and Iraq arbitrarily raised their reserves to gain a bigger OPEC production share (in the 1980s OPEC allowed you to produce more oil if you had more reserves), the second issue is that world oil demand in the developing world and oil exporting countries themselves is exploding, for the developing world it is economic advancement and the launch of Ultra Cheap Cars such as the Nano by Tata, while for the oil exporting countries oil demand is cutting exports as more oil is kept to service the internal economy, thus it is vital to look at total available oil for exports and not just production to gauge future oil prices.

Finally, it seems ever the late 90s tech bubble rook place (and the bubble concept become more wide spread), everyone became a bubble expert, whenever something rises, the bubble people go out screaming: it is a bubble, with total disregard to fundamentals, for some reason the bubble logic has replaced basic economic theory.

Regards,
Nawar

Oil Price: $100 Before $150 - But $200 Before $50

Increasing NYMEX margins work both ways, shorts will also have to increase their margin, and since longs are deep into the money, the ones that will have a cash shortage if margins are increased are the shorts, which in turn mean shorts will have to cover as margins get increased, while longs position get strengthened by holding a bigger portion of their longs in cash vs margin.

Having said the above, speculators are responsible for noise in the oil markets, the real trend is driven by oil supply peaking, and as long as demand outstrip supply prices will keep moving higher, so far global demand keep growing (check the IEA July 10th report), this means we need much higher prices for demand to truly stall and reverse.

The easy demand destruction has already taken place, such as cuts on discretionary driving, and cut in airlines excess capacity, however the next wave of demand destruction will hit the their real CORE users of petrol, and this also require much higher prices then current prices.

Regards,
Nawar