NC Trader

The Oil Casino: SEC Heading for Monte Carlo, Part III

Spec-friggin-tacular. Thank you Alan. One of the best-researched, written and useful articles at SA.

Foreign Bond ETFs: Considering Dollar Devaluation and Maximizing Income Stream

As an ETN, PGD is an unsecured obligation of Barclays. If your black swan materializes, what make you think they could or would pay out? Not arguing with your thesis, but I think last fall proved that counterparty risk damn well better be part of your analysis.

BB&T (BBT) shares up 4.9% amid reports it may be the one to buy ailing Colonial BancGroup (CNB -11.9%).

I think "buying" here is a relative term. Probably paying 1/100th the value of the branch real estate. Dont expect BBT to do anything that isnt in BBT's best interest.

Design A Country Rescue Package Here (Comment Competition)

Receivership.
FDIC-type organization (read- federal government) comes in and liquidates assets and guarantees payment of debt at 75 cents on the dollar. (If I owned CA GO bonds, I would take 75 cents all day)

Bond holders, who have the greatest legal title to assets are protected to an extent.

Process is quick, reducing impact on the truly essential services for responsible, tax paying members of the state.

California serves as an example to the rest of the country and reduces moral hazard. (I'm looking at you NJ and NY)

It will never happen, but this is a thought exercise, right?

Obama's TARP 2 Signals an End to Mark to Market

If market participants want to see beyond the current outlook, they are more than welcome to value stocks using 2006 numbers. Give me M2M and let me make my own assumptions. YMMV.

America: Is This the End of an Era?

Thanks Rasing4, I thought I read this article and stream of useless comments for nothing. You nailed it.

Three Christmas Presents from the U.S. Economy

Thanks for reminding us of the good stuff... makes me think of an email I recieved recently-
I want to share a story told by Sister Maria Jose Hobday, a Franciscan nun and author who has written and lectured internationally for 30 years on Native American spirituality, prayer, and simplicity. In the 1930s, her family was living on the edge of poverty:

"One Saturday evening I was working late on my homework. I was in the living room, my brothers were outside with their friends, and my parents were in the kitchen, discussing our financial situation. It was very quiet, and I found myself more and more following the kitchen conversation rather than attending to my homework. Mama and Daddy were talking about what had to be paid for during the week, and there was very little money -- a few dollars.

"As I listened, I became more and more anxious, realizing there was not enough to go around. They spoke of school needs, of fuel bills, of food. Suddenly the conversation stopped, and my mother came into the room where I was studying. She put the money -- a couple of bills and a handful of change -- on the desk. ‘Here,' she said, ‘go find two or three of your brothers and run to the drugstore before it closes. Use this money to buy strawberry ice cream.' I was astonished! I was a smart little girl, I knew we needed this money for essentials. So I objected. ‘What? We have to use this to pay bills, Mama, to buy school things. We can't spend this on ice cream!' Then I added, ‘I'm going to ask Daddy.' So I went to my father, telling him what Mother had asked me to do. Daddy looked at me for a moment, then threw back his head and laughed. ‘You mother is right, honey,' he said. ‘When we get this worried and upset about a few dollars, we are better off having nothing at all. We can't solve all the problems, so maybe we should celebrate instead. Do as your mother says.'

"So I collected my brothers and went to the drugstore. In those days, you could get a lot of ice cream for a few dollars, and we came home with our arms full of packages. My mother had set the table, made fresh coffee, put out what cookies we had and invited the neighbors. It was a great party! I do not remember what happened concerning other needs, but I remember the freedom and fun of that evening. I thought about that evening many times, and came to realize that spending a little money for pleasure was not irresponsible. It was a matter of survival of the spirit. The bills must have been paid; we made it through the weeks and months that followed. I learned my parents were not going to allow money to dominate them. I learned something of the value of money, of its use. I saw that of itself it was not important but that my attitude toward it affected my own spirit, could reduce me to powerlessness or give me power of soul."

Wishing you power of soul in abundance in the New Year.

Bank of America: Optimism Is Unwarranted

M-P, Citigroup tried the supermarket model and proved it doesnt work. A distressed bank like BOA has even less of a chance of making it happen.

Why Is Bank of America So Bad at Picking Its Leaders?

sorry for the triple post

Why Is Bank of America So Bad at Picking Its Leaders?

@bobbybutte
Banks chose mark to market (available for sale portfolio) so they could book huge gains on securites from 2003-2007 as China and the middle east, flush with dollars, paid 102 or 103 of par on garbage ABS. They could have used mark to model (held to maturity) but wouldnt have recieved that one time gain as the ABS was gunned by Fed liquidity. That is why you saw a rush at commercial banks to move securites from the AFS book to HTM in q4 2007 and q1 2008. M2M caused the financial crisis in the same way my calculator did.

Stress Tests: Banks vs. Bond Insurers

Great article, this is why I keep coming back to SA.

Why Gold at $1,200/Ounce Is Likely

Comparing gold's run in the 70's is at best misleading and at worst retarded.
Please cite your sources on China & Russia central bank buying.

Is a Car Produced in Alabama Really an Import?

Does the UAW post links to these articles next to the beer cooler in the break room in flint? Where did all these idiots come from?

Covered Call Option Writing Strategies: Fishing and Cutting Bait

How do you deal with the vega vs. time decay of the option? Your strategy would seem to stop out pretty quickly in a volitile market. I've tried it with little success.

Bank Failures, 2009 Edition: Three and Counting

The reason more banks have not been closed is simply that the FDIC is overwhelmed. There are more than 30 banks with negative capital ratios, not to mentioned hundreds critically undercapitalized. Quick list-
OneUnited
Omni National
Home Federal
Harbor Bank of Maryland
Texas National
Bank Atlantic