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Neal Razi  

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  • Seadrill Shows Just How Little Insider Buys Can Mean [View article]
    I had a little seadrill, and got out when I saw the CFO's remarks, and realized just how (and by whom) this company was being run. I kept a smattering of RIG, but shouldn't have even bothered. Nice call. Speaking of, good article too, you have a really engaging and humorous writing style. I'll follow you
    Dec 1, 2014. 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3) [View article]
    I'm not exactly fearful, but your greediness should be tempered by some caution. Any real investor will tell you to not dive all into one sector. But hey, it's all good. I've got plenty related to oil, more than I realized, like FSLR.

    It's not just BP. Most of the super majors have been duds compared to the sp500 for awhile now.
    Nov 28, 2014. 08:51 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Sector You Must Own Today (Part 3 Of 3) [View article]
    and what was BP at for the last 5 years? The same price, right? It's been a dud throughout the recovery. Who is to say it won't continue to be a dud? Most of the big oil companies have not been very good investments compared to the SP500 no matter when you bought them anywhere before, during, or after the recession

    I have them, they are good cash generators. But I wouldn't go crazy and unbalance my portfolio to buy more.
    Nov 27, 2014. 11:55 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Johnson Controls - A Strong Business To Buy [View article]
    The lead batteries is the big part of the business, no? I've worked with the JCI guys a few times when it comes to building maintenance, they seem to have their act together. Never really figured out the synergy between those two businesses, but I guess it works.
    Nov 18, 2014. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • We Disagree With Buffett On This Stock [View article]
    I've got a little of both F and GM. US auto seems to be a pretty strong play for the past few years, and with gas prices low, they can sell more higher margin trucks and such. I have to admit being awful when it comes to trading this company though.

    Isn't most of the debt just unfunded pension liability? That isn't that bad.
    Nov 18, 2014. 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Amazon Reports Weak Q3 '14 Earnings [View article]
    I disagree. It's not about earnings for Amazon and it never has been. They can stop the investments any time they choose and book tons of profits. Like google which often invests in useless things, it's about their core business, which in this case is online sales. That is doing very well, and improving, as they are seeing faster and better delivery times from all the money they spent on new warehousing and shipping.

    Revenue translates to earnings anytime they want at amazon. Personally, I'd rather they keep investing in the company at this point. Unlike so many other companies, the money they are spending seems well allocated to me.
    Oct 29, 2014. 09:33 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Deelectrification And Delithification Help GM Become More Competitive? [View article]
    "could put at risk what companies value the most nowadays: their reputation."

    Wait a sec. This statement implies that GM actually has a reputation to be put at risk.
    Sep 12, 2014. 10:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore: A Spin-Off With Minimum 40% Upside Potential [View article]
    I cannot describe how much I hate when people say what you just did. It earns my wrath like nothing else in this world. It's not clever, it's not witty, it's just stupid and aspbergerish
    Sep 6, 2014. 08:05 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore: A Spin-Off With Minimum 40% Upside Potential [View article]
    I have to admit, I'm impressed with your knowledge and comments.

    So question: With everyone Tax Inverting away from the US, why did Paragon choose to HQ in Houston? Why not say Ireland?
    Sep 5, 2014. 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Paragon Offshore: A Spin-Off With Minimum 40% Upside Potential [View article]
    That was my understanding too. NE unloaded all their aging fleet into one ringer company. I got saddled with this stock when NE unloaded, err, i mean unlocked its value, and have been trying to figure out what to do with it.

    Obviously, there is some value in any money making enterprise, even one of low quality, but I can't tell if this is worth even this amount right now. It seems like a company similar to defunct Ocean Freight (owned by a cousin or nephew of the Dry Ships guys); a way to pawn off a bunch of junk onto investors by promising a dividend that was unsustainable with no plans to ever expand the company.

    The more I think about it, I don't even want to put in the risk or even the brainpower into valuing this company. I think I'll just take the loss, and forget it. Thanks Noble for unlocking all this value for me!
    Aug 28, 2014. 10:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Co.: Plowing Its Way To Lower Prices [View article]
    But kellygro, what I'm saying is that already the bad news is clearly factored in the stock price, hence the currently cheap multiple. Everyone knows Deere's A&T business is going to have slowing sales, that's why it is trading at such a discount to similar companies like CAT.

    If sales fall more THAN EXPECTED, Deere will drop more. But it's all about the expectation right now. How much drop will there be? What if C&F keeps picking up (which drove the beat)? If you are wrong, and outguessing all these analysts is not your specialty, your short is going to cost you.

    I almost never short in a general bull market. That's just me. I'm not preaching or picking on you, just concerned. I'd place my money on something you think will do well, not bet on what you think will perform poorly.
    Aug 28, 2014. 10:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Noble Corp.: A Leaner Company Emerges [View article]
    no problem, thanks. I saw some old article about BRK being interested in like Paragon cable or something, kind of funny.
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Co.: Plowing Its Way To Lower Prices [View article]
    Remember, just because sales will go down, doesn't mean the stock will. Markets factor in expectations, like the drop in farm equipment sales.

    I'm not saying Deere won't drop, but you are playing a dangerous and complex game, kellygro. Do you really want to risk money like that? What if, what IF, you are wrong? What if deere doesn't drop much, since it is only 9X earnings, and the SPY hits a rough patch?
    Aug 25, 2014. 10:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Co.: Plowing Its Way To Lower Prices [View article]
    Yeah, I agree, you'd have to be cookoo to short a high quality company like Deere in a bull market like this. I wouldn't advise it
    Aug 19, 2014. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deere & Co.: Plowing Its Way To Lower Prices [View article]
    Deere isn't just tractors.

    You are kind of completely overlooking their construction and forestry business, which has been doing very well. C&F is still in the early stages of recovery, as government budgets are coming back, and is what drove the EPS beat.

    Even in Ag & Turf, their ag machinery is pretty intense actually, and they have a great and recognized brand. If that 85 previous breakout level holds, it might be a decent entry point.

    Believe me, I can appreciate a "common sense" approach to investing, but, no offense, it kind of seems like you didn't do a lot of research on Deere before writing this, or you'd know there is more to them than just A&T.

    Thanks for the article.
    Aug 19, 2014. 02:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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