Neal Shanske

Long/short equity, dividend investing, special situations, deep value
Neal Shanske
Long/short equity, dividend investing, special situations, deep value
Contributor since: 2006
The article incorrectly lists the date of the Statue Of Liberty's dedication and Kingstone's founding. Both were 1886, not 1866.
I think the advantage of being based in the Hudson Valley as opposed to a city are overstated. Book value growth was driven largely by a secondary offering, which is not mentioned.
The company has actually increased its exposure over the past few years, not decreased it. This gives the company more profit in a normal year, but increases risk in a megacat event.
The company's combined ratio, which has been consistently below 80% is probably the most interesting data point here. Underwriting has been prudent and risk has been well-priced.
Is the benefit of captive specialty pharmacies so great as to outweigh the damage all of the questions are causing?
Company's debt level is too high. Company's best chance is to follow Tyco's path back to health and separate quality assets loaded with as much debt as they can support.
Tyco didn't go bankrupt. Tyco shareholders didn't lose everything. The nature of Tyco issues was very different from Enron issues. So yes, they should feel better.
Company stated yesterday that there are 24.5 million shares outstanding, roughly in-line with your estimate.
How can it be that the numbers being off by $16 billion doesn't change your conclusion?
Just the Guggenheim Spin Off ETF, but I wouldn't recommend it(http://bit.ly/WoZPcn)
Looks like Seeking Alpha removed the comment this was responding to. Just wanted to clarify this was not a response to marcap, nor was it a bizarre ex nihilo rant.
Given the number of articles published, being the dumbest of the year is no small accomplishment. I thank you for your high praise.
Let me make sure I understand your point: BB 10, a constantly delayed OS that RIM has not been able to get to work is far superior to the next version of iOS, which you alone among analysts have identified as so horrible it will destroy Apple's market share, and the users fleeing Apple will all come to RIM, bypassing Android entirely. Sounds like science fiction to me, but what do I know? Did you type the comment on your superior Wang word processor, or technologically wonderful Commodore Amiga?
So had RIM become just another Android clone manufacturer it would be successful? Sounds like SGI's filed strategy a decade ago. RIM's failure long predates the QNX acquisition.
Difference between price and value. The shares still have a price. They have zero value.
Niko-
Thank you for your thoughtful comment. But I'm with Seeker959. There's no way that retirees will get cut and shareholders will get something. Best hope is for some warrants. Most or all equity will go to creditors. Risk-reward makes holding or buying a losing bet, in my opinion.
I wrote previously about Kodak's real estate value here: http://bit.ly/yXFJ5G and mentioned the community college sale, but was unaware of the Colorado land as Kodak doesn't make it easy to identify its holdings in its filings. The Weld County assessor does not yet list any property sales past 12/30/11, but I'll keep looking. Not sure how much they got, but probably something meaningful. Even so, I don't think they can monetize real estate quickly enough to avoid bankruptcy, and moreso, I don't think it's worth trying. They can be much more efficient about this not selling under pressure in the protection of a bankruptcy process.
I agree, too late to go short, but not too late to sell if you're long. And bonds are a much better bet than equity.
I feel for you, KodKod. Thank you for sharing your experience. I hope that there's a positive outcome for you. I sincerely feel that if bankruptcy is inevitable, that delay is counterproductive. I know that there are many dynamic companies hiring in Rochester and hope you find yourself a better situation.
Apologies for implying you were a guy. There are bright spots within Kodak's operations, as you point out. In my opinion, there's not enough time for them to grow to the point where they can cover the pension liability before the company runs out of cash. I think they will make an excellent business under the Kodak name when they emerge from bankruptcy having shed their huge liabilities and monetized their patents.
I am not a professional. I am an amateur. I have written elsewhere in more detail; the point here was that these two new developments do nothing to change Kodak's situation.
I have neither a personal nor professional interest in Kodak's failure. Kodak already has failed. I'm not gleeful about it, but people buying the common stock now are likely to lose their entire investments. The company may be successful in the future, but only through restructuring in Chapter 11.
Welcome back, InTheMoment! For a guy who thinks stocks are a crap shoot, you spend an awful lot of time commenting on them. Rather than rant about the media, please let us know, based on publicly available information, including Kodak's financials, how they can reasonably be expected to avoid bankruptcy. I have an open mind and am prepared to be convinced- by facts, not by rants.
I'm not sure I follow, or how this is relevant to Kodak. On what basis have you made your own decision that the company will not file for bankruptcy?
jim4444
First, I don't get paid for my opinion. This is a hobby for me, and I have no pretensions. It's an opportunity for me to express and clarify my thoughts and hear the arguments and responses of others. Looking at recent articles on SA about EK, I find the majority of them to be positive rather than negative, certainly not 99% negative. You are correct that the BOD is derelict in allowing Mr. Perez to drive the company to this point, but there is nothing about their departure that indicates it was performance-based, or that they were in agreement with the majority. They have not been replaced. I fail to see how you can call it a positive.
I hope you're right that EK won't have to file for bankruptcy. Bankruptcy would hurt a lot of people. However, I think the odds are very much against them. I can't say with certainty, to address InTheMoment, that they will, but there's enough of a probability that they will that I think the stock should be avoided.
InTheMoment-
If you really believe buying stocks is a crapshoot, then why buy stocks? Play craps, the drinks are better. If you bought EK(and I haven't), and it's likely to go bankrupt, sell and salvage your money. Of course no one knows wht's going to happen, but why not play a game with better odds?
I'm frankly unable to comprehend what jerr11111 is trying to say. I think he's claiming that the patents have huge value, and that also, the company makes great digital cameras and is going to turn around like Apple did.
I think the patents, while valuable, just don't have the upside to keep the company going in this condition. Furthermore, they just don't have compelling products in the marketplace, and even after years of cuts, the workforce is too large.
Why mention this now when it's down to $.65? Because investors are still buying this hoping there's a turnaround, and I believe they're wrong.
I think Mr. Ayoub missed my point. I don't believe this stock is going to double, but a decision to liquidate would result in 20% profits at current prices. On the same token, with cash exceeding market value and no burn rate, I wonder about the downside risk Mr. Ayoub imagines. Obviously any over the counter stock embodies risk, but it seems to me that one could do much worse than this.
Travis is right, I'm not clear why it should be a problem that the bulk of income comes from membership fees. From the very start of the warehouse club industry that was the business model, and the continued growth of these companies is proof of its efficacy. I've posted a more detailed response at Inelegant Investor