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Nealster

 
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  • Buybacks give IBM a big EPS lift; hardware sales continue plunging [View news story]
    See my article about Buffett's IBM investment rationale. It seems that Buffett is ok with the declining revenues as long as EPS goes up. http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 22 12:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Take A Look At Sears Hometown And Outlet Stores Again [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I was thinking about this name earlier in the year, but with the recent decline in stock price, it looks much more interesting. Has anyone been to any of these stores? Are they quality? Regular Sears stores are pretty depressing, but I like the idea of hardware/appliance heavy Sears stores with the franchise model -- it leverages the "harder" side of Sears, which I think is where they are stronger.
    Nov 9 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Consider Rupert Murdoch's 'New' News Corp. [View article]
    This is true, but the REA.AU is trading at a pretty high P/E ratio of about 45 times earnings. So I am not sure if the intrinsic value of the property is as high as the market price.
    Sep 5 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Consider Rupert Murdoch's 'New' News Corp. [View article]
    Genesis --

    Can you explain how you see e-commerce being worked into the newspaper business?
    Sep 5 02:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Consider Rupert Murdoch's 'New' News Corp. [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. Like you said, the newspapers are being valued extremely cheaply here, and these are some of the best newspaper brands in the world. I am actually bullish about high-quality newspaper content going forward. In a world of increasing pay walls, and unreliable blogs, good journalism will be something people start paying for. The scalability of content on the internet is tremendous. For example, the WSJ is leveraging its brand and research throughout the world and offering up the same business content to the worldwide business class. The cost of delivering to an additional person online is negligible, and the fixed costs of a story remain the same. I can see high-quality reporting and delivery to be an almost software-like business due to the internet.
    Jul 26 05:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Can Double In 3 Years [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. I disagree that the ABC move was a bad one. I think if you look back on Pessina's track record, squeezing efficiency from the pharmacy distribution business is his forte. It will increase buying power of the combined alliance and improve the delivery of drugs to the retail locations.
    Jul 25 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Can Double In 3 Years [View article]
    Arthur, thanks for the wonderful comment. I think you make some excellent points and it seems you are very familiar with the company. First, I agree that just because Walgreen can double in 3 years due to the transformational acquisition does not mean that we should not expect the stock up to go up 30% each year for the next three years in a linear fashion. It may well be a very good idea to wait for some negative short-term earnings disappointment to get a better price entry. Second, cost-cutting and employee benefit reduction is an unfortunate trend that seems to be taking place throughout corporate America as CEOs try to squeeze out profits in harder times. Additionally, I think the pessimistic assumptions on return of Express Scripts customers may already be priced into the stock. The loss of power for Walgreen against players like Express Scripts seems to be pushing to them to become larger and more powerful against suppliers so that they can get some of that margin back. My view is that in the long run, Express Scripts and similar companies will become less powerful as corporations cut back on benefits to their employees.
    Jul 25 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Walgreen Can Double In 3 Years [View article]
    Most forecasts are unreliable. The reason that this one is helpful is that in 2016 Walgreen the company will be a different animal than it is now. The earnings and revenues for Walgreen and Alliance Boots have been very consistent over time, and therefore much more predictable than a tech company like Apple. Considering Walgreen's conservative management and Pessina's track record, I give their projections more merit than most others. Any investment contains risks, and this one is no different.
    Jul 24 03:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Follow Warren Buffett's New Investment Gurus Into DirectTV [View article]
    Thanks for the comprehensive reply! You make some very good points.
    Mar 19 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Kohls, Expect Great Gains [View article]
    Hi Robert, I am not saying that an LBO necessarily makes sense for someone, but that there has been speculation about an LBO. This speculation should allow investors to take a second look at Kohls and see its intrinsic value.
    Feb 9 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Kohls, Expect Great Gains [View article]
    Berloe, Thanks for the question. I misstated that language. What I meant was that the Price to Book value has compressed from 3.9 to 1.7. This is a good thing because you are now paying the same price as investors paid 10 years ago, but you are getting a company has that has more than twice the "net worth" or book value as it had 10 years ago.
    Feb 8 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Kohls, Expect Great Gains [View article]
    I think the exclusive brands don't need to be too popular in order to give a competitive advantage. The perception that there are things you can only get at Kohls is sufficient. One or two popular brands (like Vera Wang or Jennifer Lopez or Food Network) might be enough to get people in the store to buy other things. Getting more private label brands also helps in negotiations with branded manufacturers because Kohls is less reliant on branded goods.
    Feb 7 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Kohls, Expect Great Gains [View article]
    Lower prices are always better! I got in around 43, but I have been thinking Kohls was a bargain even over 50. The consumer will be stretched and have less money due to higher taxes, but they will also be looking for bargains. Kohls is well positioned compared to it's mall based competitors to attract bargain minded shoppers. In fact, the reason I started thinking about Kohls was because some of the most thrifty people I know shop there.
    Feb 7 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coinstar Value Trap [View article]
    I view the acquisition of the blockbuster as a positive. They paid quite a premium, but they eliminated their only remaining competitor. They gained access to the retailers that had previously signed up with Blockbuster (like Publix). Also, Redbox now has no competition when negotiating leases with retailers. This keeps their share of profits higher than if they had to compete on each deal.
    Jan 16 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coinstar Value Trap [View article]
    I don't see the falloff in kiosk usage being as dramatic as you outline. My bullish case is at the following link: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jan 16 10:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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