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Ned W. Schmidt,CFA

 
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  • Agri-Commodities: Price Trend Strength Continues [View article]
    ADM still has a position in GrainCorp, and has a right to raise that stake to more than 20%. ADM also has ownership in Wilmer Intl. They are building a long-term position in the Asian market which few companies have.

    I do not see oil prices having a material impact on corn and soybean prices. One of you is going to have to explain that. Soybean demand is not built on oil prices.
    Dec 20, 2013. 08:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Other 'Oil' Companies [View article]
    Note that ADM owns a significant position in Wilmar International, which I consider a positive.
    Nov 21, 2013. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Other 'Oil' Companies [View article]

    Yes, technology continues to change. But, the time period for a meaningful impact on anything has a horizon well beyond our worry. Technology such as this does not change today's world.

    China and India do not produce sufficient spare anything to have the potential to eliminate oil imports.
    Nov 21, 2013. 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grow It, And They Will Eat It [View article]
    Yes, and thanks for adding those thoughts.
    Oct 30, 2013. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grow It, And They Will Eat It [View article]
    For every type of soil and crop exists an optimal level of fertilizer. A farmer will not put more fertilizer on the soil as it will do absolutely no good. Plants cannot use more fertilizer than is optimal for them. So, fertilizer demand will not rise as farm incomes rise. This view is wrong, and quite common on the Street.
    Oct 29, 2013. 06:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be A Good Year For Agri-Equities [View article]
    Australia is still looking at GrainCorp acquisition to appease some vocal farmers, but little reason not to approve it. ADM cannot move it to another country.

    One has to view the profit margins at ADM and BG as one would the commissions a broker makes or the interest rate margin of a bank. They simply take a "commission" on the large amount of commodities they move. Questions is whether or not the vast volumes of commodities that flow through companies like BG and oil companies should really be reflected in revenues.
    Oct 25, 2013. 08:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be A Good Year For Agri-Equities [View article]
    The whole concept of a commodity cycle is a myth. Commodities is not a homogeneous group. Commodities is composed of mineral ores, gold and iron, energy, oil and coal, and Agri-Food, corn and palm oil.

    Each of these is driven by different factors. I suggest you read my book AgriMoney to understand that the food era of 1850-2000 was the aberration, not the norm.
    Oct 25, 2013. 08:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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