Using Yield Spreads To Assess The Relative Value Of The Mesabi Trust [View article]
how can you write any report on MSB without mentioning that CLF decided to temporarily close down 2 of MSB's mines and that might account for todays high yield
if they cannot mine they cannot ship and royalties will be lower - your analysis is flawed unless you can explain this
with that said - iron ore prices have increased over 40% in the past quarter - and CLF may reconsider - which would put MSB above $30
Great Northern Iron Ore: How To Trade Dimes For Nickels [View article]
you should read their 10k - the value is about 8 or 9 dollars upon termination. also - i am guessing your returns above DONT account for the high cost of shorting these kinds of stocks - which in the case of GNI has been around 30% a year which essentially makes shorting this very tough
Great Northern Iron Ore Properties: Investment Or Lottery? [View article]
its actually a bit more dire than you think
You are assuming a $3.50 dividend stream, given the volatility in global steel prices - that is pretty optimistic
More important - you need to PRESENT VALUE the investment plus look at the tax consequences (dividends are taxed at ordinary rates - not the 15% qualified), so the real value today is
Mesabi Trust - Using Seasonal Factors To Make 20%+ On The Short Side [View article]
Hope everyone was able to make some good money on this MSB short - down from 30 to 26.75 in 2 days (yes, you need to adjust for the $1.13 dividend), so really 28.87 to 26.75 - still a very nice move
I do think we have more downside - if you want to stay short in the name and need protection - i would recommend buying the December 30 calls to hedge yourself in case of a pop - they are very cheap
Great Northern Iron's Shareholders Are In For A Lake Superior Bath [View article]
the only caveat i can add to this discussion is that some holders are lucky enough to get paid to loan out the shares - with the annual rate rising to as much as 30% when we are near the dividend record date. Most times - the cost to borrow is around 15% - which means holders (if they loan out their stock) would net 10% - which just about offsets the Present Value that the author mentioned.
I have noticed with this stock - as we get closer to the 2015 date, the value of the stock relative to its real value tends to decrease - last year the stock traded as much as 75% over its fair value - this year its been trading around 50% over its fair value. As the author has pointed out, the prices today are high - even relative to its ridiculous valuation - i would expect the stock to trade in the mid 60's within the next month
Based On Today's Trading Behavior, Natural Gas Could Be Headed Toward A Bear Market [View article]
when you look at projected weather - norms compared to forecast, what specific areas are you looking at. For example, the fact the South Dakota might have record lows wont affect gas prices whereas a few degrees above normal in NY or Chicago could have a big effect
Using Yield Spreads To Assess The Relative Value Of The Mesabi Trust [View article]
Thanks for the explanation James
From everything you said above and from what else i have read - the 4th qtr distribution might be quite good. Shipping (and thus royalties) should be up compared to q42011 and realized price has to be higher
I think a dividend of 70 cents or higher would get the stock back to $27 in short order - any guesses on the payout? Does your analysis assume that even with the CLF shutdown - MSB still ships an equivalent amount in 2013 as 2012
Mesabi Trust - Using Seasonal Factors To Make 20%+ On The Short Side [View article]
MSB was a totally different company 4 years ago - the dividend study was done for the past 2 years since that is more applicable to what will likely happen this time
Great Northern Iron Ore: At Least A 60% Return On The Short Side [View article]
Ken - you are getting a high rate plus - my analysis is already assuming the dividends that need to be paid out. My rate is 15% - so the cost is $15 per year - and if the stock doesnt adjust by the dividend paid out - it just becomes an even better short since there is a Defined Terminal Value
Holland Ware's Takeover Bid for Forestar Looks Questionable [View article]
to be honest, i saw nothing in your article about why to be wary of this deal. What i see is a smart, somewhat opportunistic investor, trying to buy a good long term holding at a fair price (based on current market conditions)..It doesnt matter what Ichan bought FOR shares for, what matters is, where can he invest the cash..Do you think shareholders of Merrill complained at $27 per share, by saying the stock was trading at $40+ just a few months before that..
more importantly, where does FOR go if the bid is dropped. and what are the chances of them NOT accepting the bid. From what i can see, risk seems to be about $1-2 in the stock, with upside of $4.50, so if the odds are better than 33% of the deal happening, then you want to BUY it right here
Apple's Downside Risk: $290 Just Based on Cash [View article]
Using Yield Spreads To Assess The Relative Value Of The Mesabi Trust [View article]
if they cannot mine they cannot ship and royalties will be lower - your analysis is flawed unless you can explain this
with that said - iron ore prices have increased over 40% in the past quarter - and CLF may reconsider - which would put MSB above $30
Great Northern Iron Ore: How To Trade Dimes For Nickels [View article]
Great Northern Iron Ore Properties: Investment Or Lottery? [View article]
You are assuming a $3.50 dividend stream, given the volatility in global steel prices - that is pretty optimistic
More important - you need to PRESENT VALUE the investment plus look at the tax consequences (dividends are taxed at ordinary rates - not the 15% qualified), so the real value today is
WELL SOUTH OF $30
Mesabi Trust - Using Seasonal Factors To Make 20%+ On The Short Side [View article]
I do think we have more downside - if you want to stay short in the name and need protection - i would recommend buying the December 30 calls to hedge yourself in case of a pop - they are very cheap
Great Northern Iron's Shareholders Are In For A Lake Superior Bath [View article]
I have noticed with this stock - as we get closer to the 2015 date, the value of the stock relative to its real value tends to decrease - last year the stock traded as much as 75% over its fair value - this year its been trading around 50% over its fair value. As the author has pointed out, the prices today are high - even relative to its ridiculous valuation - i would expect the stock to trade in the mid 60's within the next month
4 Steel And Iron Stocks With Tough-As-Nails Dividends [View article]
ALSO - COMPANY ANNOUNCED THAT ITS LAST DIVIDEND WOULD BE THE PEAK - DIVIDEND FOR UPCOMING QUARTER IS LIKELY TO BE $2 OR LESS
Based On Today's Trading Behavior, Natural Gas Could Be Headed Toward A Bear Market [View article]
Using Yield Spreads To Assess The Relative Value Of The Mesabi Trust [View article]
From everything you said above and from what else i have read - the 4th qtr distribution might be quite good. Shipping (and thus royalties) should be up compared to q42011 and realized price has to be higher
I think a dividend of 70 cents or higher would get the stock back to $27 in short order - any guesses on the payout? Does your analysis assume that even with the CLF shutdown - MSB still ships an equivalent amount in 2013 as 2012
Mesabi Trust - Using Seasonal Factors To Make 20%+ On The Short Side [View article]
Thanks
Neil
Shorting Atlas Resource Partners Vs. Buying Atlas Energy [View article]
Great Northern Iron Ore: At Least A 60% Return On The Short Side [View article]
Holland Ware's Takeover Bid for Forestar Looks Questionable [View article]
more importantly, where does FOR go if the bid is dropped. and what are the chances of them NOT accepting the bid. From what i can see, risk seems to be about $1-2 in the stock, with upside of $4.50, so if the odds are better than 33% of the deal happening, then you want to BUY it right here