Neil Feinberg's  Instablog

Per the distribution release

"we anticipate that 2012 wlll be another good year for the Trust, though it is not
expected to reach the historical record earnings achieved in 2011" .

Total Dividends were $15 in 2011. If you assume the economy slows a bit - and apply a 20% haircut to 2012  - you get total dividends of $12 -  or $3 per share on average in 2012 -  about half of this latest record dividend

See the VALE news last week about cutting ore prices and throw in a typical Minnesota blizzard to freeze up the shipping channels

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne...

and we are back to $2 per share dividend in Q1. 

even though the cost to short might be 20% or more- it the stock pops at all on the lastest dividend annoucement - it will be worth shorting  - as the stock typically trades off much greater than the dividend on the ex date

Witn month-end approaching and treasuries having outperformed equity by approx 10% in both August and September (as of 9/23), Pension funds may be planning a major rebalance away from fixed and into equities for month end. 

If we get any type of bounce in the market -  this will certainly add fuel to the fire

Is it 2008 all over again???

Just ask James Gorman at MS -  who ordered his traders to buy back MS bonds in the open market on Friday and called two influential bank analysts to tell them he was doing so and that the investment bank was in great shape with no French exposure and no major withdrawal of assets

Does a CEO go thru all these motions if he is not worried about a run on the bank - ala Lehman or Bear Stearns....Certainly - the Euro short ban has made MS and other global financial stocks a convenient target - but we all know how fragile the psyche can be and how a short raid can quickly turn into a run on the bank

Watch Morgan Stanley in the upcoming weeks - it should give a good clue as to where stocks are headed