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Neil Feinberg's  Instablog

Neil Feinberg
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Established Hedge Fund with a 10+ year track record, specializing in the intermediate term/swing trading of highly correlated US equities Funds seeks to profit from inefficiencies from macro environment, using mean reversion and fundamental analysis as the main tenets to the strategy
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  • GPOR - Take Advantage Of The Ridiculous Rebound And Sell Sell Sell

    I have been in GPOR for over 3 years (i actually did a secondary at $8 per share) and have seen how this company trades. Up until late last year it was a straight rocket ship up but their last acquisition and switch towards Gas over oil while looking smart in the near term definitely took some shine off the rose

    The one thing you always need to know about GPOR is that they LOVE doing deals, and with deals come Stock Offerings and Debt Offerings which make the people who give price targets to GPOR biased

    It is rare to ever see a downgrade on this stock, especially from an I-bank who has done a deal over the past 2 years (GPOR likes to have 7-10 I-banks as co-writers on their deals), so dont expect a downgrade anytime soon and always expect a defense of the name when it drops down

    BUT, as a holder what you will find is that the stock suddenly hits air pockets on no news, which would represent the smart institutions lightening up or getting out as even the most bullish of analysts will write in their reports that GPOR trades 2 multiple points more expensive than its peers but that is justified by its great UTICA acreage..

    HOWEVER, when the company fails to execute, as it did in Q4 and apparently in Q1, and warns that production will be back-end loaded for 2014, and the stock reverses higher on blind analysts calls backing and defending the company, guess what..... AIR POCKET AHEAD

    I plan to get back in around $55, in the meantime, I can find far better value in the energy space like EOX. EXXI (way cheap to the group with poor execution), and my favorite name GST - which will likely have an activist investor adding value over the next quarter

    Disclosure: I am short GPOR.

    Mar 01 1:13 PM | Link | Comment!
  • GNI Follow-UP $5.75 Dividend will be the Top
    Per the distribution release

    "we anticipate that 2012 wlll be another good year for the Trust, though it is not

    expected to reach the historical record earnings achieved in 2011" .

    Total Dividends were $15 in 2011. If you assume the economy slows a bit - and apply a 20% haircut to 2012  - you get total dividends of $12 -  or $3 per share on average in 2012 -  about half of this latest record dividend

    See the VALE news last week about cutting ore prices and throw in a typical Minnesota blizzard to freeze up the shipping channels

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-ne...

    and we are back to $2 per share dividend in Q1. 

    even though the cost to short might be 20% or more- it the stock pops at all on the lastest dividend annoucement - it will be worth shorting  - as the stock typically trades off much greater than the dividend on the ex date
    Tags: GNI, MSB
    Dec 18 10:06 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Pension ReBalance This Week
    Witn month-end approaching and treasuries having outperformed equity by approx 10% in both August and September (as of 9/23), Pension funds may be planning a major rebalance away from fixed and into equities for month end. 

    If we get any type of bounce in the market -  this will certainly add fuel to the fire
    Tags: SPY
    Sep 25 2:10 PM | Link | Comment!
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