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Nelson Smith  

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  • 3 Ways To Short The Canadian Real Estate Market [View article]
    How's your Home Capital position doing, Krug?
    Jul 17, 2015. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why PepsiCo Is A Much Better Long-Term Dividend Stock Than Coca-Cola [View article]
    A few months ago I crunched the numbers, and I think Pepsi should split up the company. I think that apart, Pepsi and Frito-Lay are worth about $122 per share.

    I wrote a bunch of words about it here.
    Dec 27, 2014. 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Don't Reach For This Yield Play [View article]
    David -- Because on my side of the border, there are quality names that yield 5-6%. Considering how retail REITs are yield plays, I'd recommend investors maximize yield day 1, assuming it's sustainable.
    Dec 17, 2014. 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Riocan Should Be In Your Portfolio [View article]
    Nice piece. Nothing wrong with RioCan, but I prefer Calloway because I'm nervous about the Canadian consumer. I figure if things get tight more people will end up going to Walmart, which anchors every Calloway development. I also think that the foot traffic Walmart attracts is a big plus when it comes to getting other retailers in a development.

    But I do agree with Frank's point above. RioCan is doing some interesting things development wise. It's just not enough for me to like it over Calloway.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Short II: Why High LTV Canadian Mortgages Are The New Subprime [View article]
    Nigel, what do you think about Home Capital Group? Focused on the GTA, actively moving away from insured loans, and lending to folks regular banks won't touch. I think it's toxic with a capital T.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Big Short II: Why High LTV Canadian Mortgages Are The New Subprime [View article]
    I disagree with the recourse thing.

    U.S. foreclosures after the crisis were highest in Florida and Nevada. Which are both recourse states. That didn't stop folks from those states from mailing back the keys.

    I just googled, and it turns out more than half of U.S. states are recourse states. Sorry user, you've got this one wrong.
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income: Don't Reach For This Yield Play [View article]
    I don't follow U.S. REITs much, so I just typed out a comment about how there are a couple hundred REITs out there and chances are you could find one with a yield of 6-8%. And then I looked. They are few and far between, huh?

    Y'all are nuts for taking under 5% for a retail REIT. I would never do it.
    Nov 12, 2014. 11:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Has Growth, Margin And Capital Deployment Problems [View article]
    Here's what I don't understand about the "Coke can always just use its system to grow other brands" thing.

    When it comes to water, Coke has a much smaller moat than it does with soda. Water is water. The Dasani brand is known to consumers, but it's not nearly as well known as Coke.

    I worked at a grocery store from 2001-06. I did a lot of the ordering. When it came to ordering water, price was most important. You had to stock Coke or else people would revolt. Nobody cares enough about Dasani to revolt. We'd sell Dasani, but wouldn't push it unless the Coke rep gave us a good deal on the 24 packs. I can't imagine it changing since I left the industry.

    There's value in Coke's distribution system. But as brands get further and further away from the Coca-Cola brand, they're worth less. Dasani, Vitamin Water, Minute Maid, etc. all have value, but they pale in comparison to the Coca-Cola brand. And yet, investors value the whole thing as though every brand conveys that same emotional response to customers.

    I'd consider paying 23x earnings for a company that just sold Coca-Cola. But 23x earnings for a company that sells other beverages that are only marginally as strong? Nah. And yet *those* are the beverages that are supposed to take Coke into the next promised land?
    Nov 12, 2014. 12:22 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Has Growth, Margin And Capital Deployment Problems [View article]
    That's okay. There's something like 8,000 publicly traded stocks in North America. I'm sure I can find enough to fill a portfolio without KO.
    Nov 12, 2014. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola Has Growth, Margin And Capital Deployment Problems [View article]
    I think Tom brings up a lot of valid points with Coke. The fact is growth has slowed to practically nothing, management is paying themselves *really* well, and the stock is bid up thanks to retail investors' delusion that the next 50 years will somehow be as profitable as the last 50.

    Like I've said before, $KO would have to fall 50% before I'd look at it. There's just too many headwinds to pay 23x earnings for it.
    Nov 11, 2014. 05:54 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There's No Reason To Own Johnson & Johnson - Sell It, And Buy VHT Instead [View article]
    Hey Buyandhold, we get it.
    Nov 10, 2014. 09:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairfax Financial Holdings: Prem Watsa's Overrated, Underperforming Mutual Fund [View article]
    There's a whole lot wrong here, but others have already beaten me to it. Watsa has been much better than the market for too long for me to doubt him over a couple of years of underperformance (which is easily explained by reading his Chairman's letter). Josh, might I suggest cutting down your volume? 8 articles in 2 days isn't doing you or your readers any favors if you misunderstand companies as wildly as you do Fairfax.
    Nov 6, 2014. 01:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor Not A Compelling Value Despite The Recent Correction [View article]
    I agree with Fordman here that Ford Credit certainly plays a big role in the debt calculations. I believe GM is suffering from the same sort of deal.

    But what's the solution to that? Will either company ever spin out the credit divisions? If not, you run the risk of investors everywhere liking the car company but not liking all the debt on the balance sheet from the finance arms.
    Oct 31, 2014. 12:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Note To Warren Buffett: Dump Coke, Pay Your Taxes, And Get On The Right Side Of History [View article]
    Nice article.

    I'd be happy to own Coca-Cola at 12x earnings. I can't get excited about it at almost double that, even if Uncle Warren is happy to hold at these levels.

    As for everyone criticizing the author about questioning Buffett, take a look at the Oracle's record over the years. He's gotten plenty of stuff wrong.

    Oct 23, 2014. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strategy-Check: Dividend-Based Investing [View article]
    (Clicks "track new comments" button)

    (Waits for the usual suspects to show up and tell you how wrong you are)

    (Rubs hands in glee)
    Oct 20, 2014. 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment