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Nelson Smith

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  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    "99% chance they hit at least 500,000 cars/year within the next ten years"

    Pete's not that good at probability. To put his claim in perspective, TSLA is every bit as likely to increase production 20x current levels than a 60 year old man is to make it to 61. It's certainly possible TSLA grows that much, but saying it has a 99% chance of happening is so incredibly wrong.
    Apr 4 06:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Needs To Capture 14% U.S. Market Share To Justify Valuation [View article]
    "I read that some people are like you saying that the stock is only worth 10.00 a share only because they can't afford the present price, so instead they short tsla"

    Uh, no.
    Apr 4 06:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Connecting The Dots: The Iconic Coca-Cola Is A Sell At $38 [View article]
    A few days ago a commenter on a piece about Coke and Pepsi called them contrarian investments and I laughed and laughed.

    I worked for Pepsi back in 2006. And even back in 2006, soda sales were declining. Yes, they were being offset by increasing water and juice sales, but it was still a concern. It's even more of a concern now. Baby boomers are largely moving away from the stuff.

    Coke is expensive at 18x earnings. Like the author mentioned, there's no growth. At least Pepsi has Frito Lay as a growth vehicle. Oh, and they pay their executives too much.

    http://bit.ly/1hKHHIF
    Apr 4 06:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Coke And PepsiCo Have Bright Futures [View article]
    We have very different ideas on contrarian investments then. Mine is "everyone says not to buy it" not "there's a vocal minority against it." There are vocal minorities against every stock.

    Agreed at the moral flack. That's just silly.
    Mar 31 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Coke And PepsiCo Have Bright Futures [View article]
    LOL at thinking that buying KO and PEP makes you contrarian.
    Mar 30 09:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PIMCO High Income Fund Offers 12% Yield, Lots Of Risk [View article]
    "13 more divvies"

    Uh, no.
    Jan 31 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Target While It's In The Penalty Box [View article]
    Most people are underestimating the quagmire that is Target's expansion to Canada. The Canadian consumer is weak, the Canadian economy is weakening (just look at the dollar) and Target's stores are empty of both people and inventory, although the inventory issue is getting better. I'm also a little skeptical of Target's plans to earn $8/share in just a few years. I don't buy the argument that there are so many markets just itching for a Target store that all the company has to do is show up, open up a store, and just vacuum up the profits.

    I'd look at the stock if it fell to $50.
    Jan 22 01:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: A Serious Potential New Risk [View article]
    Dan has some mighty high expectations for analysis he doesn't pay a dime for.
    Dec 21 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orange: Value Or Trap? [View article]
    Good article. Here's my view on Orange, summed up. The stock is down some 65% in the last 5 years. Revenue, profit, etc. aren't down anywhere close to that. I'm in at a little less than $10 a share, and plan on holding until $30.
    Dec 21 07:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One ETF Replaces Your Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    No problem Dave. Thanks for pointing it out.
    Dec 19 03:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • One ETF Replaces Your Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    I received an email from the editors that the excluding dividends return has been corrected to 37.9%. Just so everyone knows.
    Dec 19 03:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One ETF Replaces Your Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Just throwing it out here, but maybe you could sell some of your winners, which would free up cash. Or keep 5% of your portfolio in cash - like a lot of investors do - to take advantage of buying opportunities that come up.

    There are plenty of ways to free up cash that aren't "sell all your stocks during the 2009 lows".
    Dec 19 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One ETF Replaces Your Dividend Growth Portfolio [View article]
    Yeah, that could be. I definitely messed up the excluding dividends part, and I'll be sending in a request to correct that once I'm done this comment. If anyone good at spreadsheets could take a look at mine and let me know if I screwed up, I would appreciate it.

    Even at 53%, it still did better than both the S&P 500 (which shouldn't be the index dividend growth investors compare their returns to, IMO) and the "typical" dividend growth portfolio, which was the point of the post.
    Dec 19 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Misguided Interest In Dividend Paying Stocks [View article]
    I wondered why my ears were burning this morning.
    Dec 17 10:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting The Tesla Engine Fires Into Perspective [View article]
    A comment for those of you pointing that Tesla's can't have an engine fire because it runs on batteries and not an engine:

    Fair point.

    However, thanks for missing the forest from the trees.
    Nov 21 06:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
62 Comments
42 Likes