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Nelson Smith

 
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  • In Defense Of The Shiller CAPE Ratio - It Works! [View article]
    I agree wholeheartedly. I've got my core positions that I still think are cheap, and will hold them. I'm deploying some of my cash into debt and keeping the rest ready to start buying when the market does actually correct.
    Sep 3 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In Defense Of The Shiller CAPE Ratio - It Works! [View article]
    I love these types of articles.

    Authors bring up good arguments about why the market is overvalued, using metrics that have traditionally told us that things are getting a little rosy (like CAPE, S&P 500 price to sales ratio, and Buffett's favorite, stock market value compared to GDP). And the comments are decidedly still bullish.

    What a great contrarian indicator.

    (Not so much Dale's article here, but some of the other ones. Comments here seem pretty 50/50.)

    For me, that's the value in these macro articles, to see how bullish the average investor feels. And right now feels a lot like 2006 again.
    Sep 3 02:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Every Dividend Growth Investor Should Own AT&T Right Now [View article]
    AT&T did $128 billion in revenue last year and had a net profit of more than $18 billion. Getting excited about $500 million and $100 million, respectively, is like altering your financial plan based on change you found in the sofa.
    Aug 27 02:22 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investors, Prepare To Boost Your Returns [View article]
    Another great article Dale. I've been slowly selling my winners over the last six months and moving into bonds. I'm keeping my interest rate risk low by... get this... investing in short term bonds. I still have some high yield though, which I bought at lower levels. I'm happy to continue deploying that cash.

    I also completely agree with Mr. Debunker. I'd stay very far away from DG stocks over the next cycle as all the 2008-09 converts move into the next thing. I'm also apparently the only one who remembers DG investors loading up in financials in 2006-07, since they all had a good history of dividend growth and were cheap on a P/E basis. Yep, there was a reason for that.

    I've never understood why DG investors don't just buy VIG mixed with a little BRK and just go golfing instead. If there was an index that replicated my investing strategy exactly I'd go for it.
    Aug 27 02:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Truly Battle-Tested Bank With 8%-9% Growth [View article]
    Was anyone else distracted by the fact that Tim kept calling it the Canadian Imperial Bank when the company's name is actually Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, or was it just me?
    Aug 20 12:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Of Canada Prepares For A Housing Crash [View article]
    The average Canadian owes more than 160% of their income. The average American owes less than 130%. U.S. borrowers deleveraged after the financial crisis, where their debt to income levels peaked at around 160%. Canadians just kept on borrowing.

    It's just not true that Canadians are more conservative than Americans.
    Aug 15 02:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Government Of Canada Prepares For A Housing Crash [View article]
    I did. Although, to be fair, I'm also taking the opportunity to do some long-term traveling in the meantime, taking advantage of a significantly lower cost of living outside of Canada. It just gave me a good excuse to do so (among others).
    Aug 12 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canada's Housing Bubble Is Primed To Pop [View article]
    About a year ago, I came to the same conclusion as Anthony. And like him, I used the January 16 puts to short RY, but also TD, BMO, and National Bank. Anthony, I'd recommend putting your short on National instead, since it's 100% exposed to Canada. But, admittedly, getting options on it might be tough, since I don't think it trades in the U.S.

    Here are the (many) words I wrote about it, if anyone is interested. http://bit.ly/1v6ffcQ

    I also agree with CJP, and that's why I'm out of my position (at a loss, too). I agree with the thesis, I just don't know when it's going to play out. It could take a while.
    Aug 5 09:09 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ITT Educational Services Can Be Bought At Fire Sale Prices Due To Incredibly Overstated Fears [View article]
    I agree with Max. Plus, y'know, the CEO resigning suddenly. Maybe some folks knew that was happening before the rest of us did.
    Aug 5 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    "Maybe in a couple of decades when you have some time under your belt, you will have a better appreciation for not having to worry about market prices....."

    Ah, the "I'm older than you and therefore wiser" argument. You'll forgive me if I don't take it very seriously.

    You say the same thing every time you comment. They're the same arguments made by every DGIer since the beginning of time. But I'm the dumb one? Alrighty then.
    Jul 18 01:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    "But the minions of the investment industry WANT you to sell off your portfolio for income, thus making you afraid of running out of money."

    In Canada (where I'm from), there are hundreds of different mutual funds that pay out monthly distributions. The financial industry wants assets under management. It doesn't want you to sell a thing.
    Jul 18 01:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    Valuation.

    I'll buy whatever is cheap. And DGI stocks are not cheap.
    Jul 18 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    Dave:

    I find your comments on the subject quite reasonable, actually.

    That's what it all comes down to. I've had success buying turnaround stories and unloved small-cap value stocks. You've done well buying KO and others.

    I think it's much easier to convert someone to DGI than it is to my style. DGI involves buying (mostly) household names, which are considered secure, and give someone a "worse case" return scenario of a 3-5% dividend. Especially people who are relatively new to investing.

    I just like weighing in on these debates when I see the author is getting shelled. I was once there, and I know what it's like.
    Jul 18 01:29 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    You let someone's opinion on the internet ruin your whole day?

    "By the way, have you noticed which stocks Warren Buffett buys? Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, Wrigley, Heinz, Exxon Mobil. All high quality dividend paying stocks."

    How about the stocks he bought during his first 30 years as an investor?
    Jul 17 02:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement Either [View article]
    You're right, but some DGIers get the equation backwards.

    It's not because of dividends that the usual suspect DGI stocks outperform. They outperform because the have competitive advantages, terrific management, good brands, good ROE, etc. The dividends stem from the strength of the business, not the other way around.

    These advantages would exist whether the company paid no dividends or all the dividends.
    Jul 17 02:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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