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New Century

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  • Top 10 Pick: Amazon Financials Understate Growth [View article]
    unreal that this article made the front page.

    for you to assert that GAAP is wrong is crazy here because it is an area where GAAP clearly makes sense.
    Oct 23 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Naming names: The picture on Supervalu (SVU +30.6%) comes into focus with Debtwire reporting that Cerberus Capital Management wants to line up $4B-$5B in debt financing to take over the grocery store operator. [View news story]
    EBITDA, EV/EBITDA, etc...
    Oct 22 11:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monster Beverage (MNST -9.7%) dives after incident reports released by the FDA cite the company's energy drink as a possible link in five separate deaths over the last few years. The agency doesn't draw any conclusions, but an increased focus on the sector seems likely. [View news story]
    Perhaps more importantly, the alternatives to monster continue to increase; energy pills ( http://bit.ly/QOhNmB ) seem to be the next big thing.
    Oct 22 02:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chipotle: Still More Room To Fall? [View article]
    "The company said that it would most likely raise prices next year to offset those cost increases."

    Management said the exact opposite - that they currently have NO plans to raise prices next year.
    Oct 21 11:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Companies Is A Complex Affair: Don't Use EBITDA [View article]
    I think this article is written to a reader intelligence lower than what (i perceive) to be the level of financial knowledge of SA. Saying "don't trust EBITDA" is the same thing as saying don't trust a yahoo finance-generated PE ratio or dividend yield at first glance - of course it may not reflect important items or the overall prospects of the business.

    however, EBITDA (when things like CAPEX and one-time items) are taken into account is still the gold standard for financial evaluation of companies. period.
    Oct 20 01:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Chipotle (CMG), down 10.4% AH, are now off 37% from where they traded just three months ago as the momentum finally wears thin for the stock. Whether Einhorned or not, the restaurant chain's comparable restaurant guidance for 2013 - set at flat to low-single digit growth - doesn't square away to traders with CMG's lofty earnings multiples. [View news story]
    Hoping that downgrades and end of year selling take this to $200
    Oct 18 08:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Positive Uncertainty: Universal Remote iPad [View article]
    I haven't, but interesting. In the wild, I've seen plenty of spiderweb-cracked iPhones (though obviously prior versions). and i do not know that such a test (using two out of hundreds of millions of phones produced - what if the results are atypical?) is the determining factor for a phone buyer.
    Oct 10 11:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Positive Uncertainty: Universal Remote iPad [View article]
    you're right, i don't. but for this to be an important product, apple has to sell tens or hundreds of millions of them. and i do not think that the market for high end remotes is that big...
    Oct 10 10:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Positive Uncertainty: Universal Remote iPad [View article]
    As it seems that your comment was at least partially directed to me, I will reply.

    If you have used a GS III or Galaxy Nexus, you would know that the Android experience is no longer inferior. I've used an iPhone 5 in real life as well; sure, it's impressively thin and light, but iOS hasn't changed since the original iPhone and it is no longer leading the way - it is getting dragged along. Every "milestone" iOS6 update was a feature that existed in Android (and or other OS's) already.

    And if you'd like to be able to use the native maps/navigation act to plan mass-transit directions, Android is vastly superior.
    Oct 10 09:02 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Positive Uncertainty: Universal Remote iPad [View article]
    In my opinion, the percentage of people willing to buy a $250 TV remote is very small. And the fact that Android/WP8/etc will replicate this for free on the cell phone that consumers already own in short order will make such a product even less necessary very quickly.
    Oct 10 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yum Brands' Earnings Supports Einhorn's Chipotle Mexican Grill Short [View article]
    They aren't the same - or even comparable. But $6 for something acceptable may become someone's staple, while $9 is an occasional treat.
    Oct 10 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook does a mea culpa over Apple's (AAPL) iOS 6 Maps app. "We strive to make world-class products that deliver the best experience possible ... With the launch of our new Maps last week, we fell short on this commitment." While reiterating Apple's commitment to the app, he suggests frustrated users try App Store and Web alternatives. A Google Maps (GOOG) app for the App Store appears to be months away. (more[View news story]
    This is certainly a new era for Apple...
    Sep 28 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research In Motion (RIMM): FQ2 EPS of -$0.27 beats by $0.19. Revenue of $2.87B (-31% Y/Y) beats by $370M. 7.4M BlackBerry shipments, 130K PlayBooks. Shares +14% AH. (PR[View news story]
    so unless a business is as big as apple, it should just give up?

    there's nothing wrong with a smaller, leaner RIMM - current market cap is about 1% of apple's. if it can manage to stabilize and make 5 or 10% as much money as apple, current RIMM shareholders will be fine.
    Sep 27 06:43 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Annie's Stock Is Bound To Drop [View article]
    While I do not disagree with the overall premise, I think that your critique of the balance sheet is weak, and should have been point #5, not #1, if on here at all.

    Yes, there is no PP&E, but there's nothing wrong with their contract manufacturing business model. Current cash basically covers all liabilities, and cash + receivables (which I would consider to be almost as good as cash) cover liabilities by more than 2x, even applying a discount to AR.

    Your point on goodwill is fair, but you should go into detail about why it may be written down... i.e. if it is related to an acquisition of some weak brand that isn't doing well. If not, then worrying about it may not be that appropriate.

    But again, good article, and the stock appears to be overvalued. However, there's always a chance that this runs like Monster energy or Chipotle... it's really difficult to short a stock like this so early in its life cycle.
    Sep 25 07:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Coinstar Investors Should Thank Jim Chanos [View article]
    I generally agree and am thinking about picking up CSTR shares at this level, but Amazon Prime is a growing threat - content continues to improve and marginal cost for someone that would have prime anyway is $0. However, there is no B&M competitor so CSTR will be fine - it is just whether the market will give CSTR a sub-10 multiple forever because of the perceived unsexiness of the business.
    Sep 25 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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