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  • The Number 1 Reason To Avoid Zynga [View article]
    Thank you for the most constructively critical response on here. I do plan on writing on Zynga in the future, and will elaborate on those points.
    Feb 7 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In an unusually blunt I-told-you-so, China's official Xinhua news agency publishes a commentary demanding the U.S. address its chronic debt problems: "The U.S. government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it could just borrow its way out of messes of its own making are finally gone."  [View news story]
    In an unusually blunt I-told-you-so, The Wall Street Journal publishes an op-ed by Barack Obama demanding that China address human rights violations: "The Chinese government has to come to terms with the painful fact that the good old days when it oppress its people and hides evidence via censorship are finally gone."
    Aug 7 01:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Apple (AAPL) commentary: 1) Horace Dediu estimates the iPhone and iPad's component costs respectively rose 29% and 65% Y/Y in FQ2, well above rev. growth of 3% and 40%. This, along with a mix shift towards iPads, is mostly responsible for Apple's gross margin drop (rather than price pressure). 2) Tero Kuittinen sees similarities between 2013 Apple and 2007 Nokia. "The strongest parallel is in the weird way both companies started fighting the consumer preference for larger displays … and then dug in as margins began eroding rapidly." Tim Cook may have just hinted a bigger iPhone will eventually arrive. But how long will it take? (yesterday[View news story]
    RIP apple
    Apr 27 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Z10 U.S. And Canada Sales Estimate: 1 Million Units Sold [View article]
    i think those are fair back-of-the-envelope estimates but i'd reverse the numbers - i think q10 will outsell z10 as soon as it's out.
    Apr 21 01:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Z10 U.S. And Canada Sales Estimate: 1 Million Units Sold [View article]
    that was indeed some welcome news today, but it honestly doesn't move the needle much. it's less than 0.1% of expected orders this quarter.
    Apr 19 08:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
    in no world is an ipad worth $2,000.
    Jan 31 11:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com's Investment In Fulfillment Can't Be Much Slower [View article]
    they have begun charging FBA merchants higher fees for inactive items and do regular cleanings, etc... so i think they are working on figuring out how to optimize space.
    Dec 19 05:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -3.6%) has sold off in early trading, apparently on news clearing firms are raising their margin requirements for positions due to fears of being too heavily concentrated in the $526B company. One firm, COR Clearing, raised its margin requirement to 60% from 30%. [View news story]
    Samsung GS3 is technologically superior to the iPhone 4 & 5. Sure, if you like iOS and Apple's industrial design there are reasons to buy an iPhone, but based on guts, Apple doesn't win. (There are plenty of other devices that this can be said about as well.)

    Rumor has it that the GS4 will have a 1080p screen. Maybe the next iPhone will get another row of apps?
    Dec 6 01:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The NYT's Adam Davidson takes a train ride from New York to Washington. Inside, "it's all tidy and digital, everybody absorbed in laptops and iPhones," but outside, "traveling south is like moving through a curated exhibit of urban and industrial decay." For much of the line's existence, "New York and DC were subordinate to the roaring engines of productivity in between," but that model has been flipped. [View news story]
    i lived in delaware for a summer and i swear at least once a week the news headlines were about groundwater pollution or something of that nature
    Nov 4 09:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Pick: Amazon Financials Understate Growth [View article]
    unreal that this article made the front page.

    for you to assert that GAAP is wrong is crazy here because it is an area where GAAP clearly makes sense.
    Oct 23 10:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Analyzing Companies Is A Complex Affair: Don't Use EBITDA [View article]
    I think this article is written to a reader intelligence lower than what (i perceive) to be the level of financial knowledge of SA. Saying "don't trust EBITDA" is the same thing as saying don't trust a yahoo finance-generated PE ratio or dividend yield at first glance - of course it may not reflect important items or the overall prospects of the business.

    however, EBITDA (when things like CAPEX and one-time items) are taken into account is still the gold standard for financial evaluation of companies. period.
    Oct 20 01:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Positive Uncertainty: Universal Remote iPad [View article]
    In my opinion, the percentage of people willing to buy a $250 TV remote is very small. And the fact that Android/WP8/etc will replicate this for free on the cell phone that consumers already own in short order will make such a product even less necessary very quickly.
    Oct 10 07:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Nexus 7: A Threat To Apple's Current Business Model? [View article]
    the last line in your first paragraph does capture my point. it's not that Google is going to win, it's just that Apple is going to lose.
    Jul 23 08:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Finally Time To Short Chipotle, Part II [View article]
    My pleasure. It took a while, but the big action today helped get it out the door (and credit is due to the SA editors for getting it up quickly).
    Jun 27 10:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Finally Time To Short Chipotle, Part II [View article]
    i think that's a good estimate of a moderately-disappointing scenerio... that would still be >25x forward earnings. if (and that's a big if) a perfect storm comes to fruition (meaning a couple missed q's in a row), 200 wouldn't be out of the question.
    Jun 27 09:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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