Gut Check Time For The Junior Mining Investor [View article]
Greetings Jeb,
Regarding your question "...how about you come out and tell us your real name before attacking others track records[?]"
This website is about investing, not a person's name. Part of determining a "good" investment strategy is track record. A good track record helps a person decide what is worth paying attention to. What and when an article is written helps to establish the quality of what is written. Like the motto says "Read. Decide. Invest."
You may not value track record, however there are some who do. You suggest that you have been defamed by pointing out earlier articles. However, it is the earlier articles, and the most recent, that have established your record.
Gut Check Time For The Junior Mining Investor [View article]
Greetings Jeb,
Just a thought on your most recent work. First, about the term "Gut Check"-Definition (Merriam-Webster):
"a test or assessment of courage, character, or determination" (found here: http://bit.ly/WFbwPi)
It seems that this article is a follow-up to your September 9, 2011 article titled "It May Be Time To Buy The Junior Miners" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co... ). The Deliberate Trader's comment were especially prescient at the time (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...).
After a -70% decline in GDXJ, was it really necessary to put investors through continuous recommendations of gold and silver since September 2011 to get to the point of a "gut check?" That's almost two years of pain to test an investor's character. Didn't know you were only testing us all along.
Trading AAPL In 2013 - Bottom Of The 3rd Inning [View instapost]
"...timing is also important and we would not probably look to sell calls until price jumps up to the 460.00 - 470.00 range."
AAPL hit that 463/464 level and created a short-term double top (March 25 and May 8), right on target. Now has short-term 428/420 support level on the downside, before striking that 390 support.
Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
Ahh...but that is the beauty of it all.
The Federal Reserve Note is highly predictable in that we know it will buy you less and less every year. Because this diminishing value is guaranteed, we seek investments (small business, real estate, stocks, etc.) in current dollars for future potential gains, possibly in gold even.
No other "asset" can guarantee the predictability of diminishing value over time, (aside from gold until it becomes an "active" currency). For this reason, I am grateful.
Marvell Technology Group: A Compelling Long-Term Story Tainted By Lawsuit Concerns [View article]
Just a couple of general observations.
On June 1, 2012 the author said to buy (MRVL) with an article titled "Marvell Has Significant Upside Potential" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...).
By December 27, 2012, MRVL had fallen -40%.
On December 27, 2012 (at the exact low in the price), in an article titled "Marvell: Is It Time To Throw In The Towel?" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...), the author said:
"The conclusion is, unfortunately, this: Marvell has proven itself to be untrustworthy and a landmine of negative surprises. Unless you're willing to wait for a long, long time, and unless you're comfortable with the prospects of things getting much worse from here, forget about buying this stock if you are not already trapped."
Since the December 27, 2012 article, MRVL has increased in value by +52%.
Granted, the above articles and quotes may have been taken out of context, however, the timing has not been the most opportune. Additionally, the highly detailed analysis of this article and others by the same author highlights the chasm that exists between understanding the fundamentals and potential movements of MRVL's price.
BroadVision: Profitable, But Selling for Less than Cash [View article]
Great call on this stock. Hope you issued a sell on this after the skyrocket. However, even if you didn't issue a sell the legwork was already in place. Great job.
Broke 20-40 year olds are living with their boomer parents, if they're as broke as indicated. Otherwise, those same 20-40 yr olds are competing for the same resources as the boomers.
Those in the millennials category exceed the number of boomers. Their spending proclivities exceed that of boomers as credit seems to be their method of choice. There seems to be little end in the extension of credit to facilitate demand for consumer goods (job or no job) to this group.
The boomers, if not supporting their jobless 20-30 yr old children, are caring for their parents. A veritable squeeze on the boomer which requires above average spending on the boomers part. Again, that money is as good as spent.
Why does little analysis on gold venture into demographics? Case in point, Demographer Harry Dent, in his 1998 book "The Roaring 2000's" said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be "...at least 21,500, and possibly 35,000, by the year 2008."
Dent's analysis was based on over-extrapolation of a previously existing trend. This may explain why few are willing to jump the shark with demographic data to make the case for, or even against, the future rise of gold prices. Strangely, at the time the book was written, Dent made little mention that gold was at or near a generational low.
Sadly, many gold bulls (not all) have been unwilling to acknowledge that this current decline was coming. Since 2008 (http://seekingalpha.co...), we have warned that gold experiences large declines and gold stocks get crushed, all within a gold bull market, as was the case from 1969 to 1980. Those who were unwilling to acknowledge this fact kept recommending gold and gold stocks from their respective peaks to the most recent lows.
So what appears to be the end for gold, due to the decline from $1,900, is really a small blip compared to the -50% decline from 1974 to 1976. Yes, there is more downside risk, however, it is not due to the "economic/demographic" trends. The die was cast in 1999, and the actions to reinflate will push the pendulum very much to the extreme.
It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out. Being neither a gold bull or bear, our work on the topic has suggested that you'll be proven right only if the price of gold (the relic that it is) declines below the 1999 low of $252 an ounce. Otherwise, we're still in a secular bull market for all commodities.
"Mr. Market may be a manic-depressive, but he is also patient," says Britt Harris, CIO of Texas' $117B Teacher Retirement System. "He always waits to move until he has just about all of us on the train." The market cycle is getting ripe, says Harris, but he's not worried long-term. "Unlevered debt (AGG, BND) is virtually useless now as a long-term wealth management accumulator ... The probability that equity (VTI) will outperform bonds over the next 10-20 years is probably unusually high." A great read for allocation fans. [View news story]
"A great read for allocation fans."
Regarding Britt Harris an his allocation strategies, here is another great read:
"Texas teachers’ pension fund invests in casinos, loses $99 million" (source: McGonigle, Steve. Dallas Morning News. May 12, 2012. http://dallasne.ws/11c...)
Harris' team put in $100 million and lost $99 million.
Gut Check Time For The Junior Mining Investor [View article]
Regarding your question "...how about you come out and tell us your real name before attacking others track records[?]"
This website is about investing, not a person's name. Part of determining a "good" investment strategy is track record. A good track record helps a person decide what is worth paying attention to. What and when an article is written helps to establish the quality of what is written. Like the motto says "Read. Decide. Invest."
You may not value track record, however there are some who do. You suggest that you have been defamed by pointing out earlier articles. However, it is the earlier articles, and the most recent, that have established your record.
Regards.
Gut Check Time For The Junior Mining Investor [View article]
Just a thought on your most recent work. First, about the term "Gut Check"-Definition (Merriam-Webster):
"a test or assessment of courage, character, or determination" (found here: http://bit.ly/WFbwPi)
It seems that this article is a follow-up to your September 9, 2011 article titled "It May Be Time To Buy The Junior Miners" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co... ). The Deliberate Trader's comment were especially prescient at the time (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...).
After a -70% decline in GDXJ, was it really necessary to put investors through continuous recommendations of gold and silver since September 2011 to get to the point of a "gut check?" That's almost two years of pain to test an investor's character. Didn't know you were only testing us all along.
Regards.
Dividend Investors: Beware Of Payments In Gold [View article]
Also, the price of GLD has declined -22%, showing no price above the August 2011 period.
Finally, the XAU and HUI gold stocks indexes have registered losses of -51% and 54%, respectively.
Dividend Investors: Beware Of Payments In Gold [View article]
Since our August 23, 2012 sell recommendation, AEM has declined -30%.
Trading AAPL In 2013 - Bottom Of The 3rd Inning [View instapost]
AAPL hit that 463/464 level and created a short-term double top (March 25 and May 8), right on target. Now has short-term 428/420 support level on the downside, before striking that 390 support.
Great article.
Regards.
Why Iamgold Is A Good Long-Term Buy [View article]
Dr. Doom Has Gold Going Below $1,000: Why His Thesis Is Spot On [View article]
The Federal Reserve Note is highly predictable in that we know it will buy you less and less every year. Because this diminishing value is guaranteed, we seek investments (small business, real estate, stocks, etc.) in current dollars for future potential gains, possibly in gold even.
No other "asset" can guarantee the predictability of diminishing value over time, (aside from gold until it becomes an "active" currency). For this reason, I am grateful.
Regards.
Marvell Technology Group: A Compelling Long-Term Story Tainted By Lawsuit Concerns [View article]
On June 1, 2012 the author said to buy (MRVL) with an article titled "Marvell Has Significant Upside Potential" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...).
By December 27, 2012, MRVL had fallen -40%.
On December 27, 2012 (at the exact low in the price), in an article titled "Marvell: Is It Time To Throw In The Towel?" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...), the author said:
"The conclusion is, unfortunately, this: Marvell has proven itself to be untrustworthy and a landmine of negative surprises. Unless you're willing to wait for a long, long time, and unless you're comfortable with the prospects of things getting much worse from here, forget about buying this stock if you are not already trapped."
Since the December 27, 2012 article, MRVL has increased in value by +52%.
Granted, the above articles and quotes may have been taken out of context, however, the timing has not been the most opportune. Additionally, the highly detailed analysis of this article and others by the same author highlights the chasm that exists between understanding the fundamentals and potential movements of MRVL's price.
Regards.
CARBO Ceramics: Competitive [View article]
Regards.
Astea's Shares Could Be Set to Triple [View article]
Regard.
BroadVision: Profitable, But Selling for Less than Cash [View article]
Regards.
Voltaire: Set to Benefit from IBM's Server Sales [View article]
Regards.
Lionbridge: Small Cap Value Showing Strong Earnings Growth [View article]
Regards.
Gold Update - A Plague Of Experts [View article]
Broke 20-40 year olds are living with their boomer parents, if they're as broke as indicated. Otherwise, those same 20-40 yr olds are competing for the same resources as the boomers.
Those in the millennials category exceed the number of boomers. Their spending proclivities exceed that of boomers as credit seems to be their method of choice. There seems to be little end in the extension of credit to facilitate demand for consumer goods (job or no job) to this group.
The boomers, if not supporting their jobless 20-30 yr old children, are caring for their parents. A veritable squeeze on the boomer which requires above average spending on the boomers part. Again, that money is as good as spent.
Why does little analysis on gold venture into demographics? Case in point, Demographer Harry Dent, in his 1998 book "The Roaring 2000's" said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be "...at least 21,500, and possibly 35,000, by the year 2008."
Dent's analysis was based on over-extrapolation of a previously existing trend. This may explain why few are willing to jump the shark with demographic data to make the case for, or even against, the future rise of gold prices. Strangely, at the time the book was written, Dent made little mention that gold was at or near a generational low.
Sadly, many gold bulls (not all) have been unwilling to acknowledge that this current decline was coming. Since 2008 (http://seekingalpha.co...), we have warned that gold experiences large declines and gold stocks get crushed, all within a gold bull market, as was the case from 1969 to 1980. Those who were unwilling to acknowledge this fact kept recommending gold and gold stocks from their respective peaks to the most recent lows.
So what appears to be the end for gold, due to the decline from $1,900, is really a small blip compared to the -50% decline from 1974 to 1976. Yes, there is more downside risk, however, it is not due to the "economic/demographic" trends. The die was cast in 1999, and the actions to reinflate will push the pendulum very much to the extreme.
It will be interesting to see how this situation plays out. Being neither a gold bull or bear, our work on the topic has suggested that you'll be proven right only if the price of gold (the relic that it is) declines below the 1999 low of $252 an ounce. Otherwise, we're still in a secular bull market for all commodities.
Regards.
"Mr. Market may be a manic-depressive, but he is also patient," says Britt Harris, CIO of Texas' $117B Teacher Retirement System. "He always waits to move until he has just about all of us on the train." The market cycle is getting ripe, says Harris, but he's not worried long-term. "Unlevered debt (AGG, BND) is virtually useless now as a long-term wealth management accumulator ... The probability that equity (VTI) will outperform bonds over the next 10-20 years is probably unusually high." A great read for allocation fans. [View news story]
Regarding Britt Harris an his allocation strategies, here is another great read:
"Texas teachers’ pension fund invests in casinos, loses $99 million" (source: McGonigle, Steve. Dallas Morning News. May 12, 2012. http://dallasne.ws/11c...)
Harris' team put in $100 million and lost $99 million.