The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
"Four leading merchants, advised by Minomura, agreed that in order to inspire public confidence in the paper money it should be distributed together with the familiar gold and silver currency when it was put into circulation...Such was the precarious beginning of Japan's modern currency system (source: Roberts, John. Mitsui. 1973. page 91.)"
It seems interesting that the government that many people can't trust and want to institute a gold "standard" is the same government that controls the finances while on a gold "standard". What the government gives it easily can and does take away. a "standard" doesn't change the people who run the government.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
Uh AgAu,
To start with, I have "cherry-picked" the period when an attempt at a "central bank" didn't exist at the same time there was a gold "standard." That leaves out 1795-1811 when the First Bank of the United States charter expired and 1817-1836 when the Second Bank of the United States charter expired.
You'll have to excuse taking the period from1840 to 1913, a period when there wasn't a central bank, as the time to consider the impact that a gold "standard" might actually have on the economy without much outside interference.
We'll agree to ignore suspended payments from Aug. 1814 to Feb. 1817, May 1837 to May 1838, Sept 1857 to Dec 1857, and Dec. 1861 to 1879. Not that your willingness to exclude these periods is cherry picking. We'll also ignore any re-pricing of the gold standard by government decree.
We'll also agree to ignore having the bi-metallic standard in April 1792 but then going off of it on Feb 1873. All those people stuck holding the bag of silver (silver, the poor man's gold) watched the rich get richer by government edict as they got instantly poorer.
We won't cherry pick at all.
Interesting that you picked the Civil War that you want excluded as the government selectively took advantage of the higher price of gold to finance the defeat of the south but as soon as the war was over, everyone had to accept the old lower government mandated, propped, fixed, manipulated price of $20.67.
You'd think that anyone who might possibly advocate "free" markets would also like for the price of gold to float freely. What the government gives the government also takes away. This has been the case of the gold "standard." So why should we expect anything different than what the past has shown us?
In regards to Untrusting Investor's question, which top is this in reference to? The only other peaks since this article was early and late 2012.
I understand that from a technical basis, the failures have possibly cancelled out the expectations of a new high or intermediate high. However, with the failures, based on EWT, is the theory suggesting a potential new low target for GLD, at least on a tentative basis?
In response to the spike in volatility, CME Group (CME) says it's raising collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday. Margins to trade Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, silver will increase 18%, palladium 14% and platinum by 19%. Natural-gas futures will also increase 5.6% as well. [View news story]
Time for the collapse in commodities to really get started. With these increased requirements we're going to see a firm go out of business MFGlobal or Peregrine style.
The decline in gold prices could be an opportunity for bulls, quips MBF Clearing commodities trader Mark Fisher. "If you're a long-term believer in gold, then you should love this, what's going on, because it's going to give you a chance to buy a significant position at a much cheaper price." The operative two words in that sentence however, are "long-term." "If you're a short-term speculator, good luck." (Video). [View news story]
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
Greetings Bryce,
If you compare the Barron's 50 Index to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the same period of time (1929 to 1932) you'd find an interesting disparity between the two indexes.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
Greetings Robert,
As can be seen either in the price of gold or value of gold based on a basket of commodities from 1840 to 1913, there was similarly no stability in the stock market or economy nor in the value/price of gold. I can appreciated the "idea" that gold somehow fosters stability, however, when there was a gold "standard" the economy was in flux more that it currently is.
In addition, a gold "standard" as decreed by a government is only as good as it is fitting to the said government's goals. As quickly as a "standard" is implemented it has been taken away. So what good is it to find out the next day that the "standard" has been moved to a new arbitrary level when you've been working and saving on the previous "standard"?
Governments only implement gold "standards" because they want the public to accept paper currency so that they can later easily debase. My outrage is reserved for those who accepted paper in lieu of gold because they mistakenly believed the ruse that the government would make good on that promise which has been broken since the beginning of time. Protesting now is falling into the conspiracy cesspool. My energy is better spent dealing with the current reality.
Again, gold "standards" are only put in place by a government that plans to introduce paper currency to debase. Once the paper is established as a currency, the gold backing is removed and the debasing ensues as previously planned. Somehow, the public falls for the ruse every time.
Don't Get Caught Up In Panic Selling And Capitulation In Precious Metals [View article]
Greetings Jeb,
Sorry about that. Your articles on Seeking Alpha recommending individual gold stocks began on July 6, 2010 with Taseko Mines (TGB) (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...) and is now down -38% since that recommendation.
You've been unceasing in your recommendations of precious metals and the related equities since 2010 especially after the peak in many gold equities in late 2010. In addition, a sell recommendation of gold and silver stocks never came up after the peak in precious metal equities.
However, to your credit, your recommendation of gold is up approximately +10% since your first posting on Seeking Alpha in 2010. Yet again, after the 2011 peak in the price of gold, there were no recommendations to sell.
For these reasons, it is difficult to say that a distinction was made on the way up as opposed to the way down. Could be wrong but we've been following your work on SA from almost the beginning.
Additionally, was unable to find your work on gold from a third party source as early as 10 years ago. So it is difficult to attribute the rise from the 1999-2000 low to recommendation you've made at that time.
Again, we're probably wrong on this topic since we're using only the articles from SA as our source.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
Greetings Robert,
The period from 1857 to 1913 (as indicated in the article earlier) had less economic stability than periods after the institution of the Federal Reserve (source: NBER.org).
Don't get me wrong, the Fed model is a death by a thousand paper cuts.
However, economic stability under the Fed model suggests that we expect diminished purchasing power (3%-4% annually) over time whereas the gold "standard" model requires that participants in the economy suddenly get inflation or deflation out of nowhere.
It gets hard to plan for the future under the gold "standard" model. At least under the Fed model I know I'm getting robbed and I plan accordingly.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
Greetings MacDuggles,
This is another myth of the 1929 market and the subsequent decline, nobody had any money at the 1932 low.
When, on a purely statistical basis, the Dow Industrials fell by 89%, it managed to go higher and never looked back in 1932. Where did the money come from? Who knows?
However, the market did in fact rebound even though most people think that the "Great" Depression lasted until the beginning or end of WWII. This implies that Americans didn't have any extra cash to raise the level of stock prices beforehand. Yet, the market moved higher 22 years before 1954.
Others claim that if the production for the war didn't get the stock market and economy out of the Depression/Panic then it had to be the Roosevelt New Deal spending. However, the New Deal began in 1933 while the bottom in the market was in July of 1932.
Somehow money gets to the financial markets. I don't care if it is through government stimulus or through investors who know and understand values. In this case, the markets correctly anticipated the many values that existed at the time. Whatever money that was available pushed the market higher.
Don't Get Caught Up In Panic Selling And Capitulation In Precious Metals [View article]
In agreement with you on that LPeter. The author has been bullish all the way down. How is it possible to avoid buying at these levels if you've been bullish at significantly higher level before?
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
It seems interesting that the government that many people can't trust and want to institute a gold "standard" is the same government that controls the finances while on a gold "standard". What the government gives it easily can and does take away. a "standard" doesn't change the people who run the government.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
To start with, I have "cherry-picked" the period when an attempt at a "central bank" didn't exist at the same time there was a gold "standard." That leaves out 1795-1811 when the First Bank of the United States charter expired and 1817-1836 when the Second Bank of the United States charter expired.
You'll have to excuse taking the period from1840 to 1913, a period when there wasn't a central bank, as the time to consider the impact that a gold "standard" might actually have on the economy without much outside interference.
We'll agree to ignore suspended payments from Aug. 1814 to Feb. 1817, May 1837 to May 1838, Sept 1857 to Dec 1857, and Dec. 1861 to 1879. Not that your willingness to exclude these periods is cherry picking. We'll also ignore any re-pricing of the gold standard by government decree.
We'll also agree to ignore having the bi-metallic standard in April 1792 but then going off of it on Feb 1873. All those people stuck holding the bag of silver (silver, the poor man's gold) watched the rich get richer by government edict as they got instantly poorer.
We won't cherry pick at all.
Interesting that you picked the Civil War that you want excluded as the government selectively took advantage of the higher price of gold to finance the defeat of the south but as soon as the war was over, everyone had to accept the old lower government mandated, propped, fixed, manipulated price of $20.67.
You'd think that anyone who might possibly advocate "free" markets would also like for the price of gold to float freely. What the government gives the government also takes away. This has been the case of the gold "standard." So why should we expect anything different than what the past has shown us?
Regards.
A Major Fund Is Risking Hundreds Of Millions On Gold And Silver Miners [View article]
That Gold/HUI and HUI/Gold ratio has been blown out the water. it is beyond the 2008 levels.
Regards.
Is It Time To Buy Gold And Commodity Stocks? [View article]
Gold Is Now A Strong Buy [View article]
In regards to Untrusting Investor's question, which top is this in reference to? The only other peaks since this article was early and late 2012.
I understand that from a technical basis, the failures have possibly cancelled out the expectations of a new high or intermediate high. However, with the failures, based on EWT, is the theory suggesting a potential new low target for GLD, at least on a tentative basis?
Regards.
In response to the spike in volatility, CME Group (CME) says it's raising collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious metals futures contracts, effective at the close of business Tuesday. Margins to trade Comex 100-troy ounce gold futures will be increased by 19%, silver will increase 18%, palladium 14% and platinum by 19%. Natural-gas futures will also increase 5.6% as well. [View news story]
The decline in gold prices could be an opportunity for bulls, quips MBF Clearing commodities trader Mark Fisher. "If you're a long-term believer in gold, then you should love this, what's going on, because it's going to give you a chance to buy a significant position at a much cheaper price." The operative two words in that sentence however, are "long-term." "If you're a short-term speculator, good luck." (Video). [View news story]
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
If you compare the Barron's 50 Index to the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the same period of time (1929 to 1932) you'd find an interesting disparity between the two indexes.
Regards.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
As can be seen either in the price of gold or value of gold based on a basket of commodities from 1840 to 1913, there was similarly no stability in the stock market or economy nor in the value/price of gold. I can appreciated the "idea" that gold somehow fosters stability, however, when there was a gold "standard" the economy was in flux more that it currently is.
In addition, a gold "standard" as decreed by a government is only as good as it is fitting to the said government's goals. As quickly as a "standard" is implemented it has been taken away. So what good is it to find out the next day that the "standard" has been moved to a new arbitrary level when you've been working and saving on the previous "standard"?
Governments only implement gold "standards" because they want the public to accept paper currency so that they can later easily debase. My outrage is reserved for those who accepted paper in lieu of gold because they mistakenly believed the ruse that the government would make good on that promise which has been broken since the beginning of time. Protesting now is falling into the conspiracy cesspool. My energy is better spent dealing with the current reality.
Again, gold "standards" are only put in place by a government that plans to introduce paper currency to debase. Once the paper is established as a currency, the gold backing is removed and the debasing ensues as previously planned. Somehow, the public falls for the ruse every time.
Regards.
Don't Get Caught Up In Panic Selling And Capitulation In Precious Metals [View article]
Sorry about that. Your articles on Seeking Alpha recommending individual gold stocks began on July 6, 2010 with Taseko Mines (TGB) (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...) and is now down -38% since that recommendation.
You've been unceasing in your recommendations of precious metals and the related equities since 2010 especially after the peak in many gold equities in late 2010. In addition, a sell recommendation of gold and silver stocks never came up after the peak in precious metal equities.
However, to your credit, your recommendation of gold is up approximately +10% since your first posting on Seeking Alpha in 2010. Yet again, after the 2011 peak in the price of gold, there were no recommendations to sell.
For these reasons, it is difficult to say that a distinction was made on the way up as opposed to the way down. Could be wrong but we've been following your work on SA from almost the beginning.
Additionally, was unable to find your work on gold from a third party source as early as 10 years ago. So it is difficult to attribute the rise from the 1999-2000 low to recommendation you've made at that time.
Again, we're probably wrong on this topic since we're using only the articles from SA as our source.
Regards.
Can Gold Plummet To $400/Ounce? [View article]
Of course.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
The period from 1857 to 1913 (as indicated in the article earlier) had less economic stability than periods after the institution of the Federal Reserve (source: NBER.org).
Don't get me wrong, the Fed model is a death by a thousand paper cuts.
However, economic stability under the Fed model suggests that we expect diminished purchasing power (3%-4% annually) over time whereas the gold "standard" model requires that participants in the economy suddenly get inflation or deflation out of nowhere.
It gets hard to plan for the future under the gold "standard" model. At least under the Fed model I know I'm getting robbed and I plan accordingly.
Regards.
The Dirty Secret About The 1929 Stock Market Crash [View article]
This is another myth of the 1929 market and the subsequent decline, nobody had any money at the 1932 low.
When, on a purely statistical basis, the Dow Industrials fell by 89%, it managed to go higher and never looked back in 1932. Where did the money come from? Who knows?
However, the market did in fact rebound even though most people think that the "Great" Depression lasted until the beginning or end of WWII. This implies that Americans didn't have any extra cash to raise the level of stock prices beforehand. Yet, the market moved higher 22 years before 1954.
Others claim that if the production for the war didn't get the stock market and economy out of the Depression/Panic then it had to be the Roosevelt New Deal spending. However, the New Deal began in 1933 while the bottom in the market was in July of 1932.
Somehow money gets to the financial markets. I don't care if it is through government stimulus or through investors who know and understand values. In this case, the markets correctly anticipated the many values that existed at the time. Whatever money that was available pushed the market higher.
Regards.
Don't Get Caught Up In Panic Selling And Capitulation In Precious Metals [View article]
It's Gut Check Time For Gold And Silver [View article]
Sadly, it could be a gold ETF that prompts such an accurate news forecast.
Best regards.