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  • Over its previous opposition, Apple (AAPL) implemented earlier this month a plan requiring executive officers to hold 3x their annual base salary in stock. The CEO is required to hold 10x his salary, and independent directors 5x their retainer. [View news story]
    The follow up should read as follows:

    "...in an effort to conceal their desire to sell the stock at any price."

    why should any apple exec sell their stock when an IB can lend them the value of their shares at below market rates and offer low cost equity collars on the same shares? There is no need for disclosure and no one gets uptight about insider selling, since "officially" the shares haven't been sold.

    Many Silicon Valley execs gladly participated in this product when we offered it. In some cases, it was the only way they could cash out without raising a stink. Still a lot of that going around.

    Too bad they didn't hold SteveJobs to this standard in when he sold massive amounts of stock on June 1997 and April 2001.

    Regards
    Feb 28, 2013. 05:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Add SocGen to the growing list of sell-side shops growing bearish on gold (GLD), calling Fed talk about an exit strategy premature for now, but coming nevertheless. It's a familiar argument to anyone paying attention. The news isn't SocGen's reasoning, but instead the now-fashionable bearishness on the metal. [View news story]
    The bear market in gold began in August 2011. Why the sudden institutional realization is beyond me. Talk about clueless on the topic.
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Value Market In Gold Will Work For Patient Investors: Jocelyn August [View article]
    "TGR: I'm looking at the Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) versus Augusta Resource over one year, six months, three months and one month. Augusta has been significantly stronger, in double-digits, during all periods over the past 52 weeks."

    This is interesting since the stocks mentioned by JA in the August 3, 2012 article (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...) have had the following performance:

    (SA): -10.85%
    (AUMN): -23.66%
    (VGZ): -33.10%
    (AZC): +37.89%
    (MVG): +6.91%
    (GBG): -98.15%
    (RGLD): -14.04%
    (AZK): +4.26%

    The average gain/loss was -16.34% as compared to -7.11% for the XAU and -14.20% for the GDXJ.

    Investors could have just put their lot with either of the two and found that they would have (under)performed better than this "catalyst" driven approach to speculating your money away.

    Regards.
    Feb 28, 2013. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mike Berry's New Secret For Finding Winners -- Optionality [View article]
    Let’s not forget that the same Dr. Mike Berry recommended (MDW) on March 26, 2008 (http://seekingalpha.co... ) when the stocks was trading 154% higher than the current level.

    Of the other recommendation in that TGR article, the performance of those same stocks has been as follows:

    MDW: -60%
    PLM: -60%
    GG: -18%
    Canplats: -80%

    Dr. Berry said that “…I bet my life on it that within a year Goldcorp will ultimately take a lunge at Canplats and take them out.” Dr. Berry was right, Goldcorp did in fact take out Canplats, but almost 2 years later (Bloomberg link found here: http://bloom.bg/Z3xlrm ). The conversion of Canplats into Camino shares has resulted in a decline of -84.36%. I wonder who gets to collect on the bet on the doc’s life.

    As repulsive and counter to the logic of seeking alpha, it would have been better to invest in GDX with a loss of -22% compared to the average loss of -54% with the four stocks recommended by the Dr.,since March 2008.

    Regards.
    Feb 28, 2013. 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: 4 Reasons To Take That $1B Intangible Asset Write-Off Now [View article]
    SE,

    Totally agree with the downside targets. We’ve also had a downside target of $3.50-$5.00 since August 17, 2012 (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...), when the stock was nearly 58% higher.

    Ultimately, the stock is going to zero if the company isn’t bought by some foolish competitor, all too predictable if you know the history of REE companies since the 1950’s to 1980’s.

    Regards.
    Feb 28, 2013. 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: 4 Reasons To Take That $1B Intangible Asset Write-Off Now [View article]
    Greetings Tunaman,
    Our downside targets are between $5 and $3.50, for now.

    Our less than glowing comments about MCP since January 12, 2012:

    http://seekingalpha.co... 1/12/2012 (price: $29.75)

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8/3/2012 (price: $11.49)

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8/17/2012 (price: $9.84)

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    8/29/2012 (price: $12.23)

    Current price: $6.19

    Again, our view is that the next downside target is between $5 and $3.50. Money put into MCP should be considered a total loss until proven otherwise.

    Regards.
    Feb 28, 2013. 01:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Price Of Gold Under The Last 4 Fed Chiefs [View article]
    Wow...that's the shortest post WWII period I'ver ever seen...1978 to 2013.

    Seemed to conveniently leave out Authur F. Burns who was chairman of the Fed from 1970 to 1978. Gold went from the manipulated price of $35 to the free market price of $190, a 542% increase from the start of his tenure.
    Feb 26, 2013. 03:44 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For Feb 22: Precious Metals And Stocks Up  [View instapost]
    Greetings Manuel,

    You are being very generous by entertaining these somewhat redundant questions. Like you, we're students of the market and examine the topic from almost all angles.

    The data that was referenced was based on material posted to Seeking Alpha Instablogs. Our view is that it is an open forum for discussion that is widely available.

    However, it is recommended that you submit your articles for standard article publication. It is your proof that you did not alter your work and it is on record. We know that you stand by your work, just that there is evidence to support your claims. For people like you and I, it is a must since Dow Theory is seen mostly as hocus pocus.

    In your analysis of the gain/loss for the primary stock bull market from June 29, 2012 to November 16, 2012 (based on the links provided above), you said:

    "The entry point was at 136.1 for the SPY. The exit point was signaled on Nov 16. The SPY closed at 136.37. So, before commissions and slippage, those that invested along the primary trend, would have realized a gain of 0.20%."

    In your analysis of the gain/loss for the primary gold bull market from August 22, 2012 to December, 2012 (based on the links provided above), you said:

    "The Dow Theory primary bull market signal was given on August 22.

    "The entry price for GLD was 160.54"
    "The entry price for SLV was 28.92"

    The exit price for GLD was 159.73"
    The exit price for SLV was 29."

    "Thus, GLD holders have experienced a -0.5% loss. And SLV holders have experienced a +0.28% gain."

    Your references to GLD and SLV are correct, they did manage gains in the period described. Unfortunately, the gains of <0.30% suggests that the primary trend never really materialized. We openly wondered about what exactly is the primary trend if you gain less than 0.30% in gold and silver, or lose money in SIL or GDX.

    While we disagree about the length of what a primary trend is, if it results in gains of +0.30%, then those who are uninitiated by the breadth of Dow Theory and its benefits may end up thinking (justifiably) that from a cost/benefit standpoint, it may be more work than it is worth to follow Dow Theory for that kind of return. After all, a 1-year CD could have garnered the same annualized return without all the work.

    Regards.
    Feb 26, 2013. 02:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is This The Start Of A Bear Market In Gold? [View article]
    Hey JT,

    The bear market in gold began in August 2011. The range bound nature of the price gold is the equivalent of a crash considering that a non-interest bearing instrument is bordering on nearly 2 years at the same price.

    “Such a narrow fluctuation, to the experienced student of the averages, may be as significant as a sharp movement in either direction.” -Rhea, Robert.
    Feb 26, 2013. 01:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curse Of Being No. 1 [View article]


    Don't forget Apple's previous failed dividend payment history.

    The barbarians are already at the gate to pillage what been touted as a cash hoard. After the cash bulge is drained, what is left over will leave investors wondering what happen.

    Soon enough, what was once the envy of all wall street will be scorned and mocked. A regular GE if you ask me.

    Regards.
    Feb 25, 2013. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dow Theory Update For Feb 22: Precious Metals And Stocks Up  [View instapost]
    Greetings Manuel,

    This is getting back to the question of "what has the average length of the primary trend been historically?"

    As we've maintained, primary trends (bullish) historically last at least 2-4 years (as found here: http://seekingalpha.co...).

    In all the work on the topic of Dow Theory, I have not seen (showing my lack of vision on the matter) a primary trend last only a month or two at a time. Additionally, I have not seen a primary trend where it came out with a negative return in real time (whether acted upon or not).

    Furthermore, your recent work on the "classical" Dow Theory showed exceptional performance compared to buy-and-hold BUT over periods ranging from a year or more.

    Even though I question any interpretation that shows only a year for a Dow Theory primary trend, I cannot argue if the beginning and ending period showed a return that is positive on the representative index.

    As an example, our Dow Theory analysis indicated that the primary trend was bullish on July 23, 2009. At the time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 9,069.29. When the primary trend changed to bearish on August 2, 2011, the Dow was at 11,866.62, an increase of +30% above the July 23, 2009 bullish primary trend. Since August 2, 2011, the Dow has fallen as much as -12% (in two months after that call) and gained +15% as of 2/24/2013 (annualized return of +10.33%).

    However, in the time that you've published on Seeking Alpha you've indicated primary trends, two full bull and bear primary trends for stocks and one full primary trend for gold which have all resulted in negative final numbers.

    Additionally, you readily admit, "I am very aware that recently this Dow Theory ‘flavor’ has signaled too many signals in too short time." Isn't it worth reconsidering the primary trend analysis that results in signals of less than 6 months?

    Dow, Hamilton and Rhea have indicated that the most money is made using the Dow Theory is by "playing" the secondary reactions. I thought, mistakenly, that you were applying that approach to your Dow Theory analysis instead of primary trends.

    Regards.
    Feb 25, 2013. 02:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Miners' Low Correlation To Gold: Are They Cheap Enough Yet? [View article]
    True to form, gold stocks outperformed gold from July 24, 2012 to the peak of September 21, 2012. Gold stocks had gains of +35% while gold clocked "only" a +12%.

    However, when gold started to turn down marginally, gold stocks quickly made up for the disparity by crashing to the current level.

    Now, gold stocks are trading at a -4.75% loss compared to gold at a breakeven since this article was published.

    With the Dow struggling at 14k, the prospect is that gold stocks will get crushed if the market experiences a 10%-15% correction.

    Regards.
    Feb 25, 2013. 12:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How to Play Schiff's $5,000 Gold Prediction [View article]
    Since this article, SYY has gained +12% and CAG has gained +26% while gold stocks as represented by XAU or HUI has declined -31% and -32%, respectively.

    This issue was covered in our article titled "A Strategy is Needed for Lagging Gold Stocks" (found here: http://seekingalpha.co...).

    We have provided a detailed road map for subscribers of when to invest in gold stocks based on our Gold Stock Indicator. Without a well thought out strategy with the understanding of how much better the alternatives did in the 1970 to 1980 gold bull market and/or a specific approach on when and how to buy gold stocks, it will generally be a losing proposition.

    Regards.
    Feb 25, 2013. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silvercorp's Defamation Lawsuit Dismissed, Company Immediately Appeals Decision [View article]
    Zvi,

    SVM is now down -26% since this article was published.

    Gold stocks get crushed in gold bull markets and therefore a strategy is needed in order to successfully navigate these treacherous waters.

    As outlined in the articled titled "A Strategy is Needed For Lagging Gold Stocks" (http://seekingalpha.co...).

    On our site we've outlined the specific strategy in greater detail for the current market in gold stocks.

    Regards.
    Feb 25, 2013. 12:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Curse Of Being No. 1 [View article]
    The bigger they are the harder they fall.
    Feb 25, 2013. 11:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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