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As a contributor to the New Low Observer (http://www.newlowobserver.com/about-this-site), we intend to give new insights on a low risk approach to trading in dividend paying stocks for tax deferred accounts. The New Low Observer (http://www.newlowobserver.com/about-this-site) is not intended for... More
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  • Nasdaq 100 Watch List Review

    Below is the performance of the top five stocks from our Nasdaq 100 list dated November 16, 2012 (found here) to the present:

    SymbolName20122013% change
    BIDUBaidu, Inc.92.68162.9975.86%
    VODVodafone25.2737.1747.09%
    BBBYBed Bath & Beyond56.478.338.83%
    MCHPMicrochip Tech.29.3743.447.77%
    FLEXFlextronics Int'l5.547.5636.46%
     Average49.20%
     
    ^NDXNASDAQ-1002534.163,470.4836.95%

    (click to enlarge)

    Of the top five stocks on our watch list, only one, Flextronics (FLEX), was unable to exceed the Nasdaq 100 after slightly more than one year. However, within the year, Flextronics was able to achieve a gain of more than +70% by September 2013 before the most recent slump.

    Baidu (BIDU) was the clear outperformer with a gain of +75% in the last year. In spite of the gains made by the stock, Baidu was recommended when the stock was trading at $85.02 with the following chart and commentary (found here):

    "The Speed Resistance Lines for Baidu are very compelling at this time as shown below:

    (click to enlarge)

    "The conservative downside target of $93.43 has been achieved and we are now sitting at the extreme downside target of $54.79. All indications, based on the SRL, are that Baidu is worth considering in a two stage purchase plan, once at the current level and again at $67 or lower."

    The remaining watch list from November 16, 2012 also did well with an average gain of +45.87% for the entire watch list and 55% of the entire list exceeding the returns of the Nasdaq 100 Index and only 11% experiencing a decline.

    SymbolName20122013% change
    DELLDell Inc.8.8613.8656.43%
    AMATApplied Materials10.1517.3570.94%
    NVDANVIDIA Corp.11.3815.737.96%
    INTCIntel Corporation20.1923.918.38%
    ALTRAltera Corp.30.4532.526.80%
    TEVATeva Pharma38.2940.76.29%
    EXPDExpeditors Int'l of WA35.7643.5221.70%
    CTXSCitrix Systems59.2158.92-0.49%
    MRVLMarvell Tech.7.414.3193.38%
    NUANNuance Comm20.3513.4-34.15%
    KLACKLA-Tencor44.3364.0344.44%
    APOLApollo Group19.5126.2834.70%
    ATVIActivision Blizzard11.0517.0954.66%
    MUMicron Tech5.4721.17287.02%
    FFIVF5 Networks86.6482.38-4.92%
    WCRXWarner Chilcott plc11.9822.9391.40%
    CHKPCheck Point Software43.6761.7441.38%
    DLTRDollar Tree38.8255.8343.82%
    GRMNGarmin Ltd.37.1848.7431.09%
    XLNXXilinx Inc.32.5644.5336.76%
    FASTFastenal4146.4213.22%
    MSFTMicrosoft26.5237.641.78%

    Disclosure: I am long AMAT, INTC, ALTR, EXPD, DLTR.

    Nov 28 5:18 PM | Link | Comment!
  • U.S. Dividend Watch List Review

    In our ongoing review of the NLO Dividend Watch List, we have taken the top five stocks on our list from November 23, 2012 and have check their performance one year later. The top five companies on that list can be seen in the table below.

    SymbolName2012 Price2013 Price% change
    EDConsolidated Edison54.1055.923.4%
    NJRNew Jersey Resources Corp.39.1945.4015.8%
    INTCIntel Corp.19.7223.8721.0%
    JW-AJohn Wiley & Sons CL 'A'41.7250.9322.1%
    ANATAmerican National Insurance65.41118.9081.8%
       Average28.8%
         
    DJIDow Jones Industrial13,009.5016,064.7723.5%
    SPXS&P 5001,409.151,804.7628.1%

    (click to enlarge)

    Our top five stocks managed to edge out the market by +0.7%. We mentioned in our watch list review that there were better alternative than Consolidated Edison (ED) and New Jersey Resource (NJR) and our assessment appeared to be correct at the time. In this instance, American National Insurance (ANAT) carried the list as it outperformed by a wide margin.

    Disclosure: I am long INTC.

    Nov 25 2:27 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Canadian Dividend Watch List Review

    In the chart below is the complete watch list from our November 15, 2012 Canadian Dividend Watch List (found here).

    (click to enlarge)

    In addition to the actual performance of the stocks in the year that has passed, we've included what the analyst expectations were for the stocks based on the lowest estimated earnings. From this we projected what the price change might be one year later. At the time, we said the following:

    "As can be seen above, only five companies on our watch list are slated to have higher earnings in the coming year, under the assumption that the stocks retain the same P/E ratio that they currently have right now. An alternative view is that if the earnings expectation improve, these same companies could potentially match or exceed expectations. This could mean that the stocks slated to decline in price might have the most potential to increase in value."

    It seems that our assessment that the stocks slated to decline had the most potential was accurate. Among the stocks projected to be lower in price, only one, Emera Inc., did not exceed expectations. Conversely, of the stocks expected to increase in value, only one, Gluskin Sheff, exceeded expectations.

    Nov 25 2:13 PM | Link | Comment!
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