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As a contributor to the New Low Observer (, we intend to give new insights on a low risk approach to trading in dividend paying stocks for tax deferred accounts. The New Low Observer ( is not intended for... More
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  • Downside/Upside Targets For

    Below is the chart representing the best estimate of downside risk for (NASDAQ:AMZN) based on the work of Edson Gould's Speed Resistance Lines.

    (click to enlarge)

    The conservative downside target for AMZN is $244.63. However, going back as far as 2008 shows that AMZN never actually reached the ascending conservative downside target in the past and has successfully bounced at about the same point two times in 2014. We've got to hold out for the possibility that AMZN has actually hit the low.

    The extreme downside target for AMZN is $136.02. We shouldn't be surprised to the see AMZN decline to such a low level as we've seen so many "high quality" stocks achieve the extreme downside target with ease.

    Our take on AMZN is that speculators (as opposed to investors) could take a ¼ position in the stock while adding another ¼ at $244.63, 190.33 and $136.02. The conservative upside target is $366.95 and the extreme upside target is $733.89.

    Tags: AMZN
    Dec 30 1:32 PM | Link | Comment!
  • U.S. Dividend Watch List Review

    On January 16, 2014, we posted a watch list with the analyst estimates for the expected performance for the coming year. Below are the graphs with the estimated price changes…

    (click to enlarge)

    …followed by the actual changes as of December 29, 2014.

    (click to enlarge)

    Again, the stocks with the lowest expectations outperformed the stocks that had the highest expections, according to their analysts.

    Below is a snapshot of the latest analysts low estimated earnings from our recent U.S. Dividend Watch List.

    Disclosure: The author is long TGT, WRB, ERIE.

    Dec 29 3:43 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Nasdaq 100 Watch List Review

    Performance Review

    The December 6, 2013 watch list contained the following companies and resulted in the accompanying 1-year results:

    Symbol20132014% change

    The companies on our watch list from last year gained an average of +21.34% as compared to the Nasdaq 100 which gained +23.11%. Our analyst estimate section of the watch list from last year shows what the stock on our list were expected to do over the following 12 months.

    (click to enlarge)

    All of the stocks were expected to decline in value, overall. However, what is most striking about the one year performance is that while companies on the far left were expected to do the worst those on the far right were expected to the best (sort of). Below is the actual one year performance:

    (click to enlarge)

    A side by side comparison will demonstrate that (again) the trend of performance favors those stocks that have been pinned with the worst expectations.

    Disclosure: The author is long ALTR, CHRW, GOLD.

    Dec 28 12:47 PM | Link | Comment!
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