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Nicholas Pardini

 
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  • Double Top For Apple?
    Mon, Aug. 18 AAPL 163 Comments

    Summary

    • Apple's financials are still in excellent shape, which means we do not recommend shorting the stock.
    • However, Apple's product pipeline is not inspiring enough of a catalyst for gains from here.
    • $100 is a major technical resistance which creates a split adjusted double top.
  • Death Cross For S&P 500 And Russell 2000 Taking Place
    Tue, Aug. 12 IWM, SPY 51 Comments

    Summary

    • Monthly momentum indicators are bearish on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 for the first time since 2011.
    • The last bearish phases in monthly MAC-D's were 2011, 2007, and 1999.
    • Rich valuations, and a tense macro environment provide fundamental basis.
  • Mexican Stocks Still A Good Buy
    Thu, Jul. 31 EWW 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Mexican economy is improving due to a variety of political and economic reforms such as free trade and energy reform.
    • Growth of consumer society and more competitive manufacturing to China are long term catalysts.
    • Technical picture for Mexican ETF is weakening.
  • Trade Decline Of Golf Through These 2 Stocks
    Tue, Jul. 29 MYCC, ELY 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Golf participation has been in decline since 2003.
    • Main causes are generational preferences and falling real incomes.
    • Ways to trade this trend are shorting Callaway and Clubcorp.
  • GoPro IPO Worth The Hype?
    Mon, Jun. 30 GPRO 8 Comments

    Summary

    • GoPro has formed a niche following within the action camera market.
    • GoPro has some fad like tendencies, but growth is likely sustainable for the next two years.
    • IPO performance not historically strong after first trading day, so patience before entry is warranted.
  • Top 6 Mexican Stocks Worth Buying
    Wed, Jun. 25 ASR, GMK, KOF 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Mexico's reforms and growth prospects makes investing in the country attractive.
    • Consumer sector provides the best opportunities in the country.
    • This article lists the best stocks in Mexico listed on and off the NYSE.
  • Ambev: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Fri, Jun. 20 EWZ, ABEV 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Ambev is leading beverage company in Brazil.
    • Ownership of leading beer brands in Brazil and distribution rights for Pepsi products are competitive advantages.
    • Rising Incomes, the World Cup, and upcoming Olympics are catalysts for stocks.
  • EBay- Bullish Or Bearish
    Tue, Jun. 17 MELI, EBAY 15 Comments

    Summary

    • eBay's weekly close below $50 breaks eighteen month critical support line.
    • eBay underperformance has come in spite of positive signs within the company.
    • Mercardolibre is a better alternative at current prices.
  • Chile: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Wed, Jun. 11 ECH 3 Comments

    Summary

    • The Chilean economy is dependent on copper production, but is making efforts to diversify.
    • Chile's pro-market environment and growth potential make it a long term buy.
    • The best way to invest in Chile is via ETF.
  • Sirius XM Radio: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Fri, Jun. 6 SIRI 122 Comments

    Summary

    • Sirius has clear advantages over terrestrial radio.
    • But adoption of Bluetooth and related smartphone applications in cars makes core product unnecessary.
    • Technical patterns inconclusive.
  • Madison Square Garden: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Thu, Jun. 5 MSG 1 Comment

    Summary

    • The recent purchase prices of the Los Angeles Clippers and Milwaukee Bucks have changed valuations of NBA teams.
    • This shift is not priced in.
    • Rangers' recent success makes up for Knicks' failures.
  • 2 Richly Valued Tech Stocks With Actual Long-Term Value
    Wed, Jun. 4 TYL, CUDA 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Most of the high P/E tech stocks in the current sector's bubble have little long-term growth viability.
    • Tyler Technologies and Barracuda Networks both fill niches with substantive macroeconomic catalysts.
    • For Tyler, this is automating government services.
    • For Barracuda, it's mid-size business cybersecurity.
  • United Airlines Bullish Or Bearish?
    Fri, May. 30 UAL 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Airline industry outperformed over the past 12 months, but it is still fundamentally unsound.
    • Low oil prices and a strong economy must occur concurrently for airlines to do well.
    • United is the weakest company amongst the airlines.
  • European Periphery Debt Overvalued
    Thu, May. 29 EWQ, EWI 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Bond yields in Italy, France, and Spain inconsistent with macro fundamentals.
    • Cause of disparity is misplaced hope in Mario Draghi's promises.
    • Opportunity in situation is shorting specific stock and bond markets in the region.
  • Buying Opportunity In The VIX
    Tue, May. 27 VXX 29 Comments

    Summary

    • VIX closed on Friday May 23rd at 52 week lows.
    • Current economic outlook and market risk levels do not warrant such complacency.
    • Even in a minor correction the risk:reward ratio for going long volatility is 7:2.
  • Shorting SeaWorld: The Blackfish Trade
    Fri, May. 23 SEAS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • SeaWorld Entertainment is overvalued and has high operating leverage.
    • Company being heavily sold by insiders.
    • Controversy from Blackfish documentary catalyst to drive stock down.
  • Canadian Imperial Bank Of Commerce: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Thu, May. 22 FXC, CM 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Canadian real estate bubble overshadowing US housing bubble from 2003-2007.
    • Catalysts of Canadian bubble already present and will weigh down CIBC.
    • CIBC has most exposure amongst major Canadian banks in local mortgage market.
  • Google: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Wed, May. 21 GOOGL, GOOG 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Google is the best of breed company in search and online advertising.
    • Due to a price run up in tech/social media sector, ROI and valuations are not as favorable as in the past.
    • High profitability and strong economic moats make me long term bullish on stock.
  • Molycorp- Bullish Or Bearish?
    Mon, May. 19 MCP 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Molycorp is down over 95% from 2011 highs.
    • Outcome for MCP is likely either bankruptcy or major turnaround.
    • Rare earth minerals are not that rare, but there are geopolitical reasons to prevent Molycorp from failing.
  • Bottoming Out Of Brazilian Stocks?
    Thu, May. 15 ABEV, CZZ, PBR 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Scandals with state-owned companies may cause Dilma Rousseff to lose her bid for re-election.
    • Political change along with rebounding commodity prices are catalyst for turning around Brazil.
    • Increased media attention from World Cup will improve awareness of Brazilian stocks by investing community.
  • Gold, Silver, And Platinum Are Testing Narrow Trading Ranges
    Wed, May. 14 PPLT, SLV, GLD 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Geopolitical instability and easy monetary policy still favor gold, silver, and platinum markets.
    • Gold is negatively correlated to credibility of the Fed to tighten until real interest rates return to positive territory.
    • Technically gold silver, and platinum are all range bound in channels, trade set up upon breakout of major supports or resistances.
  • 3D Systems: Bullish Or Bearish?
    Mon, May. 12 DDD 20 Comments

    Summary

    • 3D Printing stocks have sold off hard recently as 3D systems is down over 50% from highs.
    • Even after sell off, company is still overvalued.
    • Shorter-term traders can benefit from countertrend rally, but longer-term investors need to wait for stock to fall below $30 per share.
  • Short E-Trade Due To Creative Destruction From Robinhood App
       • Thu, May. 8 AMTD, IBKR, ETFC 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Silicon Valley Start-Up Robinhood will offer completely free trading for cash stock positions.
    • This is an existential threat to E-Trade whose business is competing mainly on price.
    • E-Trade's valuation and competitive position make it a better short than other discount brokers.
  • Bearish On The Market? Russell 2000 Better Short Than S&P 500
    Tue, May. 6 IWM 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Our outlook remains bearish on the US market.
    • Overvaluation of Russell is more extreme than S&P 500.
    • Composition of Russell 2000 companies are more sensitive to business cycle than S&P.
  • High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunity With Mercadolibre
    Mon, May. 5 MELI 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Mercadolibre is the eBay of Latin America and one of the best growth companies in the region.
    • Depressed prices are due to fears of effect of Venezuela turmoil on earnings from that country.
    • We recommend hedging any long positions with a protective put.
  • Is It Time To Invest In The Philippines?
    Thu, May. 1 EEM, EPHE 19 Comments

    Summary

    • The Philippines have a stronger current account balance and FOREX reserves than other emerging markets.
    • Bright spots in economy include labor competitiveness and increased tourism, but dependence on remittances a concern.
    • Technical breakout supports fundamental strength in Philippines stock market.
  • Video: Interview With Tres Knippa On Japanese Government Bond Market
    Thu, Apr. 24 Comment!

    Summary

    • Japanese Government Bond Market will collapse either in absolute terms or worthless yen.
    • Best way to short Japanese Government bonds are through Tokyo and Singapore listed futures and options.
    • Buying gold in yen may be the best way for retail investors to play this trade.
  • Value Stock Opportunities In Argentina
    Wed, Apr. 16 AGRO, ARCO, ARGT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Argentina's economy is in bad shape and in process of bottoming out.
    • This time of weakness and negative sentiment is buying opportunity for Argentine stock market.
    • Arcos Dorados, Mercadolibre, and Adeco Agro are three companies that stand out.
  • Platinum Has Most Potential Amongst The Metals
    Wed, Apr. 9 GLD, PPLT 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Platinum is cheap on relative basis historically versus gold.
    • Platinum is rarer and more uses than gold, and therefore has more upside.
    • Geopolitical risk in Russia and South Africa also will support platinum prices.
  • Turmoil In China Setting Up Buying Opportunity For Southern Copper
    Tue, Apr. 1 SCCO 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Depressed copper prices provide a buying opportunity for Southern Copper.
    • Despite weak prices, financial fundamentals for Southern Copper solid.
    • Southern Copper is the largest pure-play copper miner on the NYSE.
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different
    Editors' Pick • Mon, Mar. 24 IWM, SPY 178 Comments

    Summary

    • US market is overvalued due to non-fundamental factors involving Central Banks.
    • Current Fed policies are causing stagflation which has eliminated disposable income for the average consumer.
    • Valuations are rich even in an environment of weakening earnings.
  • Corruption Scandal Creates A Buying Opportunity For CNOOC
    Mon, Mar. 17 CEO 12 Comments

    Summary

    • CNOOC is among the emerging market oil majors that is near mulit-year lows despite high oil prices.
    • Corruptions scandal amongst management and China hard landing concerns have hurt stock price, but not core business.
    • Stock is trading at bargain P/E and oversold technically, so buying opportunity is coming shortly.