How The Fed Directly Subsidizes Corporate Profits And Why The Game Is Over [View article]
Intermediate target (less than three months) is 1500. Longer term is in the 900-1100 range which I think will happen within 18 months. I'm not sure what my end of year target will be since there will plenty of chop along the way, but I think we will definitely finish lower than current levels for 2013.
This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
The fact that gold is falling because of some "bullion banker" conspiracy is complete garbage (and I'm long term bullish on gold). What triggered this sell off the forced sale of Cyprus' reserves. That caused the sell off on Friday and the combination of fear and margin calls have sent it down the rest of the way. I'm looking to buy once technicals calm down.
The Fundamentals Don't Matter Anymore [View article]
There are plenty of bearish fundamentals for China such as a credit bubble, corruption, and the lack of basic property rights. Fundamentals work if given long enough of a time frame and the S&P 500 will crash hard once the QE rally ends.
Bank Of Japan Losing Control Of Bond Market Spells End Game For Japan [View article]
Your thesis assumes that the BOJ will successfully keep bond yields at/near all time lows and that the that yen will fall without food/energy inflation will not exceed 2%. Why do you think that this is the case?
Also Japan's products are not fundamentally superior to competition in Korea, china, the US, and Europe like they used to be. Price is not the only determining factor in why people by high end manufactured goods.
The Singapore Dollar: A More Valuable Alternative To Greenbacks? [View article]
The reason SGD is classified as an emerging currency because its not part of the most commonly traded G7 pairs (USD, CAD, AUD, EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF). From my experience of living there last year, it is a developed economy (and arguably more modern than many Western countries), but like Hong Kong the degree of inequality is much higher than anywhere in the West.
The Singapore Dollar: A More Valuable Alternative To Greenbacks? [View article]
I agree with this assessment on the Singapore dollar. With the Swiss franc pegged to the Euro, I would say that the Singapore is the best store of value among any currencies.
For readers who have interest in the Singapore dollar and other emerging currencies, check out my new book on the subject, The Definitive Guide to Emerging Market Currencies.
I agree that Lights in the Tunnel is an eye opening book about the social problems caused by automation and I recommend that investors read it. Like Lawrence said, his solutions are kind of weak. Ever since I read the book, I have tried to think of possible solutions to technological unemployment as well as it will be a big determinant of the 21st century.
Earnings are getting a boost not from revenue growth, but from keeping revenues relatively constant and by cutting costs (mostly via layoffs). Normally this would cause consumer demand to go down, but with extensions of unemployment benefits and disability claims, the unemployed still have a break even income to buy goods without a job. This extended safety net is being paid for by borrowing and spending that is only feasible with low rates being held down by the Fed. Earnings would be much lower if the state (indirectly through the Fed) did not inflate profits through subsidizing the social cost of cutting staff.
I never said that low rates would remain forever (although the Fed would like that to be case to protect the bond market). Rates will rise, but it will not be by Fed mandate. Market forces will ultimately overwhelm the Fed from continuing to suppress rate.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist, so I doubt that the government is planning to create hyperinflation to pay its debt and deliberately impoverish people so they rely on welfare. However, when governments get desperate to pay the bills without offending anyone, there are unintended consequences. Hyperinflation is just as bad if not worse for the rich than the poor because it destroys political stability, so I think its actually unlikely.
Finance minister Michael Sarris orders all Cypriot banks to remain closed until Thursday, AP reports. Reuters originally indicated only Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular would not reopen Tuesday morning. [View news story]
When will they open? Maybe they won't. Anybody with deposits in Italy, France, or Spain needs to get their money out ASAP.
How The Fed Directly Subsidizes Corporate Profits And Why The Game Is Over [View article]
How The Fed Directly Subsidizes Corporate Profits And Why The Game Is Over [View article]
Turmoil In Egypt Creating A Buying Opportunity [View article]
This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
The Fundamentals Don't Matter Anymore [View article]
Bank Of Japan Losing Control Of Bond Market Spells End Game For Japan [View article]
Also Japan's products are not fundamentally superior to competition in Korea, china, the US, and Europe like they used to be. Price is not the only determining factor in why people by high end manufactured goods.
How Can Americans Invest In Samsung? [View article]
The Singapore Dollar: A More Valuable Alternative To Greenbacks? [View article]
The Singapore Dollar: A More Valuable Alternative To Greenbacks? [View article]
For readers who have interest in the Singapore dollar and other emerging currencies, check out my new book on the subject, The Definitive Guide to Emerging Market Currencies.
http://bit.ly/17d8QOz
Quantitative Easing Will Never End [View article]
Flying High On Borrowed Wings [View article]
Quantitative Easing Will Never End [View article]
Quantitative Easing Will Never End [View article]
Quantitative Easing Will Never End [View article]
Finance minister Michael Sarris orders all Cypriot banks to remain closed until Thursday, AP reports. Reuters originally indicated only Bank of Cyprus and Cyprus Popular would not reopen Tuesday morning. [View news story]