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Nicholas Pardini

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  • Argentina Is Replaying Another Inflationary Collapse [View article]
    They are partially priced, but not completely as global risk sentiment has put somewhat of a bid in all markets. I would say that $4-5 is a reasonable target, but a full out currency crisis who knows how low it could go (zero if large scale nationalizations take place).
    Feb 14 12:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina Is Replaying Another Inflationary Collapse [View article]
    For more emerging market content that involves more specific trade recommendations for stocks off the NYSE, check out Emerging Market Insider.

    http://bit.ly/U6kLHB
    Feb 14 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What I'll Be Watching In 2013 [View article]
    Interesting column. The question is can the communist party maintain social order during this transition? Giving more purchasing power to individuals may weaken the power of the state and the losses that will be required to restructure could potentially cause unrest if mishandled.
    Feb 14 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Congress Could Fix Its Budget Woes, Permanently [View article]
    Great book. Shows how dirty dealing involved in the creation of the Fed.
    Feb 13 07:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Congress Could Fix Its Budget Woes, Permanently [View article]
    Iceland recovered because they let their banks fail and the market clear. They did not subsidize insolvent banks or an forced cuts in what would have become an insolvent government. They did not recover because of more money printing. Keynesians seem to never learn from history. Money printing has been tried since the ancient Roman times and currency debasement always results in either high-hyper inflation and/or a massive asset bust and weakened economy.
    Feb 13 07:32 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Politics Trump Economics [View article]
    The market has dominated by politicians (and central bankers) since 2009. QE is subsidizing rampant government spending and creating an asset bubble along the way. If the Fed was not protecting the bond market, we would have a debt crisis stateside. The question is how long can the government prop up the economy and how much politicians delay the bust through more easing and stimulus. 60 elections and the transition of China took place last year, and the risk of politician job loss motivated the passing of all the current band-aids on the economy. Once investors realize the shaky foundation of the global economy and fiat currencies major currencies and/or equity markets will crash,
    Feb 13 07:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Navigate Argentina's Black Market In Foreign Exchange [View instapost]
    Great post on Argentina and the black market for pesos (higher rate than I thought it was). I think the hyperinflationary collapse is likely as they have a track record of doing this.

    The better question is why do these countries never learn their lessons, when it comes to the cost of buying votes? Or maybe I should just be more cynical towards populist politicians.

    http://bit.ly/14T9dvz
    Feb 13 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks More Overvalued Than 1929 [View article]
    It's nice to see data that puts performance and valuations in context of 80+ year time periods versus just post 1982 which is the horizon for most investors. I tend find generational theories interesting as 80 years is regularly when the generation that suffers the last crisis dies off. I will give the Fourth Turning a read.
    Feb 12 06:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • James Hamilton looks at why oil and gas prices are rising even as production climbs: "It makes no economic sense to add gallons of ethane or propane to gallons of crude oil to try to summarize global oil supply. But growth of natural gas liquids has been a key factor in the reported increases in world oil supply... But if you’re waiting for it to lower the price you pay for gasoline at the pump, you may have to wait a while longer.” [View news story]
    It's rising because of QE and money printing.
    Feb 11 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget inflation targets, Japan now has a stock market target and it's Nikkei 13K by the end of March, according to Economy and Finance minster Akira Amari. If Japan has its own David Tepper, we're pretty sure we know what he's doing. Tokyo was closed overnight, but DXJ gains 1.2%. The yen slides, FXY -0.6%[View news story]
    I said to short JGB's not buy them as yields go higher. I have no faith that the government will be able to make equity targets or can prop up economies. It has failed just about every time in the past, and will again when the Japanese economy collapses. Why does everyone think that this target will be met and even if it is, it's likely that the yen will depreciate at a equal or faster rate than the Nikkei rises.
    Feb 11 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget inflation targets, Japan now has a stock market target and it's Nikkei 13K by the end of March, according to Economy and Finance minster Akira Amari. If Japan has its own David Tepper, we're pretty sure we know what he's doing. Tokyo was closed overnight, but DXJ gains 1.2%. The yen slides, FXY -0.6%[View news story]
    Short JGB's, the Yen, and Japanese companies with weak fundamentals in non-Yen terms. Inflationary collapse is likely with the current policy. If rates go up just 2% on the ten year JGB, interest payments exceed tax revenues and the country is bankrupt. 2-3% inflation will drive rates to these levels.
    Feb 11 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long Hong Kong Dollar: Breaking Of Peg Provides Asymmetrical Payouts [View article]
    Looks like I was right about the Bolivar, was devalued by over 33% This weekend.
    Feb 11 12:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Housing Market "Recovery" Is A Complete Myth [View article]
    I agree that homebuilders have risen to the point that has far exceeded even the most optimistic projections of improvements in the housing markets. As for a large housing market decline, I do not think it's likely (at least on a national level). I think only markets where there are not enough high paying jobs to support the mortgage market such as Miami, Phoenix, or Las Vegas will pull back, but I think markets like the SF Bay Area, Washington DC (whether it right or wrong, government bloats salaries here), or Boston will hold gains.
    Feb 2 01:28 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
    I choose what to trade or invest in based on fundamentals, which are more than enough of a reason to short this market. Technical analysis just provides the best entry points that maximize risk adjusted returns. Lack of technical confirmation of the short kept me out of the short for most of this January euphoria. Not having risk controls is just reckless and has no effects on my conviction towards a position. Part of being a responsible and effective fund manager is using risk management so I do not blow up with my clients' money.
    Jan 31 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The S&P 500 Will Likely Fall By 40% [View article]
    I am short the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000 (while considering shorting the CAC 40). I will take a small hit, but my fund will not blow up if I'm wrong in the short term due my risk management measures. Unless if fundamentals drastically change (which is highly unlikely) if I get stopped out for some reason, I will short again when my technical indicators break down as they have now.
    Jan 31 05:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
397 Comments
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