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Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group: This Japanese Bank Has At Least 35% Upside
- SMFG's average target price and discounted dividend value is more than $10 per share, which represents 30%-35% upside.
- Prime Minister Abe is proposing to cut corporate taxes by 8%, which would likely boost SMFG's share price by at least 12%.
- A share buyback of between 50 and 100 billion yen is likely to happen by May, which could boost EPS 2% or more.
- The weaker yen will boost foreign investment from countries like the United States and China because foreign investors can buy more Japanese assets with the stronger currencies.
- The Bank of Japan is set to buy $672.53 billion of government bonds per year; much like the U.S. Fed’s QE began doing in late 2008.
News Corp.: Navigating The Digital Landscape
- News Corp generates more than 70% of revenues from its news and information service businesses which is in an industry-wide print to digital transition.
- Digital distribution should reduce costs because News Corp will not be subjected to rising newsprint prices and will not need to pay distributors to deliver traditional print newspapers.
- News Corp has already seen improvements in its publishing business (HarperCollins) by licensing with tech companies and receiving faster payments for its e-books.
- News Corp owns a 61.6% stake in REA Group which caters to the lucrative Australian real estate market and where demand grew 15% in 2013.
- Digital subscriptions for the Wall Street Journal accounted for 37.5% of the total paper’s subscribers in 2013.
National Oilwell Varco: A Wonderful Company Selling At A Wonderful Price
- National Oilwell Varco is selling for a substantial discount to its sustainable earning power mainly due to fears over a pullback in E&P activities.
- NOV has a dominant market share in every product that it offers, and the company’s brands are well known throughout the oil and gas services industry.
- NOV has the lowest debt-to-equity ratio among its peer group, with debt currently comprising about 15% of total equity.
- NOV is paying a dividend that is 50% higher than its next closest peer.
- NOV’s fair value is likely close to $86, representing a 68% upside.
The Tandy Advantage: A Growing Business In A Niche Market
- Tandy Leather Factory Inc. is the world's largest specialty retailer and wholesale distributor of leather and leather craft-related items.
- No competitor can match the breadth of Tandy's product line, as the company offers 2,500 leather-related items.
- Revenues have grown 44%, from $54MM to $78MM for the period 2009-2013, and 2014 revenues likely will be close to $81MM.
- Even with the increased short-term debt, Tandy's debt-to-equity is still a modest 17%.
- Hybrid wholesale/retail model could generate cost synergies abroad.
Zillow - Trulia Merger: A Low Risk Way To Realize Profits In 2015
- The shareholder approval now makes deal consummation a near certainty.
- Investors will likely realize 10 - 15% unlevered annualized profits if the deal closes in the next 3 -4 months.
- The only remaining roadblock is a pending review by the FTC, which seems likely to approve the deal due to legal precedent.
Rayonier Advanced Materials: It Should Not Take A Genius To Run This Business
- Rayonier AM’s is the world's top producer of acetate tow which is used in the production of cigarette filters and which consumers have a strong preference for.
- Rayonier AM believes there was only one new entrant into the specialty cellulose industry in the last 10 years.
- Rayonier AM has incredibly low customer turnover as evidenced by the fact that it has been doing business with its top 10 customers for an average of 38 years.
- The main end uses of Rayonier AM’s products are recession proof.
- The switching costs of Rayonier AM’s products are very high, the demand is predictable , and as a result Rayonier AM can also raise prices as inflation increases.
Global Water Resources: Regulation Creates Compelling Opportunity
- The Phoenix market is a major U.S. metropolitan area with stable population growth, good weather, prominent universities and a recovering real estate market.
- Global Water Resources offers a compelling opportunity and regulation actually decreases risks associated with this investment because the recent regulatory order mandates a 9.5% ROE.
- Global Water investors have a margin of safety because of the wide gap between DCF projections and current price.
Alaska Communications Surprising Sale Of Wireless Business Creates Two Important Catalysts
- Changes the Alaskan based telecom company from one of the highest levered companies in its industry to one of the lowest, substantially reducing risk for a potential acquirer.
- ALSK is now free to focus on its more lucrative broadband and managed IT solutions business which have historically generated industry leading returns of about 11.5%.
- An acquisition or dividend now seem much more likely over the next 12-18 months - two key catalysts that could unlock the full value of Alaska Communications.
California Resources Corporation Is A Spin-Off With A Substantial Opportunity In The Golden State
- CRC has at least 200% upside if the price of oil can return to the $90-$100 level.
- Commodity price volatility is lessened because of management’s tremendous track record of capital allocation and improved operational efficiencies in the newly formed CRC.
- Monterey Shale reserves offer a lucrative opportunity - at worst likely to double shale reserves, at best access to 2/3 of all recoverable shale reserves in the lower 48.
- Projected oil volume growth of 15% compounded annually through 2016.
- Management thinks California has one of the lowest risk growth profiles in the industry.
Halliburton - Baker Hughes Merger: Likely 13-20% Returns In 2015 And 51% Long Term Upside
- The $2 billion in cost synergies plus $800 million expansion opportunity in North American operations will create sustainable 20%+ margins for the combined company.
- Despite the recent sell-off, arbitrageurs will still ultimately realize 13-20% returns while they wait for closing.
- Ultimate price target is $63-$64 if the merger is consummated, a 51% upside from current levels.
Box Ships Part II: Well Positioned To Withstand The Stormy Seas
- The market has overreacted to the news that the company’s negotiations with a lender are taking longer than expected.
- Investors are not even willing to pay 30 cents on the dollar for the equity left over in Box Ships. (18.2 million market cap/$64.28 million adjusted equity value).
- If charter rates can recover to something like $5-5.50 per TEU/Day, this company can become very profitable very quickly.
Alaska Communications Is A Pre-Packaged LBO With Attractive IRR Scenarios
- ALSK’s capitalization structure has created a pre-packaged LBO opportunity for a potential acquirer.
- Excluding 2013 and expense deductions associated with AWN transaction, ALSK has averaged EBITDA of $110.75 million over the last five years.
- ALSK is an optimal acquisition target because of its consistent earnings power.
- The company will receive a $190 million preferred distribution over the next four years from its interest in AWN which will allow for further accelerated debt reduction.
- 40-84% IRR projections based on a 3-5 year investment horizon.
Box Ships Inc.: Net Asset Value Represents 111% Upside
- The container shipping industry is showing signs of improvement.
- The company's main focus is maintaining liquidity for as long as possible.
- A net asset value of $2.95 represents 111% upside from current levels.
Alaska Communications Systems Group: A Hidden Gem In The Last Frontier
- ALSK has 20% market share in a $1B industry growing at 5% annually.
- ALSK has one-third Interest in a Joint Venture that owns 46% of all cell sites in Alaska.
- 80% discount to earnings power offsets risks associated with debt.
A Purse Or Wallet For Your Portfolio - Try Coach, Inc.
- Coach has created its brand image by a constant consumer-centric focus that creates value and emotional attachment in the consumer’s mind.
- Coach has averaged 74.55% gross margins over the last ten years.
- Coach has been able to average 33.54% operating margins and 45.96% Return on Invested Capital since 2004.
- Coach has generated an average of 23.4 cents of free cash flow for every dollar it generates in revenue over the last ten years.
- Expect increased dividends to continue because Coach's emotional appeal to customers has created a distinctive brand that has consistently produced high returns on capital and excess free cash flow.
- Lear Corp: Driven To Pay It Back
- Cal-Maine Foods: A Morning Delight For Your Portfolio
- SkyWest Inc.: Airline's Value On The Horizon
- Confessions Of A Value Addict: My Next Fix? Universal Corp.