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Nick Clayton

 
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  • Box Ships Inc.: Net Asset Value Represents 111% Upside [View article]
    Got it, thank you for your contribution.
    Sep 19 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box Ships Inc.: Net Asset Value Represents 111% Upside [View article]
    Tajer, where are you getting $188 million? Box Ships values its fleet at $217 million. As for the shares outstanding, I used the weighted average common shares figure for the period ending June 30, 2014 which is just over 27 million.
    Sep 19 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Box Ships Inc.: Net Asset Value Represents 111% Upside [View article]
    Ocean 2026,

    I do not know Mr. Bodouroglou and I am not going to speculate as to what his motives are exactly. However, with a close to 17% ownership interest, Mr. Bodouroglou has incentive to maintain liquidity for as long as possible until the shipping industry recovers and charter rates return to normal levels. Moreover, Mr. Bodouroglou has over 35 years experience in the shipping industry and Box Ships have operating margins and debt levels that are more favorable than industry averages.
    Sep 19 03:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications Systems Group: A Hidden Gem In The Last Frontier [View article]
    Pole65,

    Thank you for your comment. I would hang on to your position. This is definitely a long term play where patient investors could be rewarded substantially. Again, like I said in a previous post, I believe the major catalyst is institutional buying. The telecom business may not have the most attractive economics (especially Alaska) but the industry has high barriers to entry and once debt is manageable, these companies tend to have stable free cash flows and can kick out solid dividends. ALSK is no different. I don't know if I see $4-$8 in the near future, but it's a definite possibility by mid 2016. That's over 100% upside from current levels.
    Aug 7 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications Systems Group: A Hidden Gem In The Last Frontier [View article]
    Thank you Matthew. You know I have not read much Seth Klarman but I will be sure to check him out. Have you read his book Margin of Safety: Risk-Averse Value Investing Strategies for the Thoughtful Investor?
    Aug 7 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alaska Communications Systems Group: A Hidden Gem In The Last Frontier [View article]
    Jr Pace,

    I am not in this stock for the short term and I must admit I am not great as to predicting WHEN the market will recognize inefficiencies and value a company closer to its intrinsic value. That being said, I believe it is very reasonable to assume that ALSK's debt will be around $360 million by Dec. 2015, assuming ALSK uses its quarterly AWN distribution of $12.5 million to pay down its senior credit facility. At that point management would be able to pay out dividends. However, they are under no obligations to do so. Let's say at that point they used just half of their estimated residual equity interest of about $10 million in the AWN deal (after $50 million preferred distribution) to pay out dividends, you could be looking at a 5-6% yield ($5M / $88M equity value) assuming the price of ALSK didn't significantly move over the next year and a half. This is important because in my opinion the biggest catalyst for appreciation of ALSK's equity is institutional buying and I believe ALSK's necessary decision to slash the dividend is what caused the institutions to bail. But I am sorry jrpace. I can't answer your question. I do not know when the market will recognize ALSK's intrinsic value. I only know that the stock is significantly undervalued and that eventually the market will recognize the inefficiency.
    Aug 6 08:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Purse Or Wallet For Your Portfolio - Try Coach, Inc. [View article]
    Thank you for your comment Frrizzo380. I agree that the luxury goods industry does not support the favorable business economics of the consumer goods industry. Just about everyone has shopped at Wal-Mart, tasted a Coke or Hershey Bar or used Old Spice, Gillette, or Crest toothpaste (Proctor & Gamble products). These are the kinds of companies that Warren Buffett buys because they have an essential piece in the consumer's mind. I think Coach has a narrow moat because they definitely have built a strong emotional connection with their consumers. One could make an argument that it is impossible to build a wide moat in the luxury goods industry. However, I think because Coach does not carry a lot of debt and because they have shown a consistent ability to increase free cash flows and earnings, they will be able to defend their narrow moat and stay afloat during economic recessions.
    Mar 20 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Purse Or Wallet For Your Portfolio - Try Coach, Inc. [View article]
    I should clarify that I believe Coach has a narrow moat. They definitely do not have a wide moat like say Wal-Mart, Proctor & Gamble, Oracle, or Microsoft. Wal-Mart is a low cost producer that benefits from huge economies of scale while software giants Oracle and Microsoft benefit from high switching costs. I think Coach has carved out a narrow moat because of their brand. Customers are willing to pay a little more for the name. However, competitors like Michael Kors or Kate Spade could erode Coach's moat and eat away at its profit margins if management does not continue to invest in marketing initiatives or does not diversify its product line.
    Mar 20 12:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Purse Or Wallet For Your Portfolio - Try Coach, Inc. [View article]
    Thank you for your comment AnAvgJoe. I agree KORS has come on strong as of late. However, given Coach's consistent cash generating ability and management's capital allocation decisions, I believe it is a great opportunity to buy Coach on the cheap. I definitely think Coach is entering a maturity stage where it will see its cash start to pile up. Expect increased dividends and share buybacks. KORS will definitely chip away at Coach's margins, but I think right now its price multiples make KORS a less attractive growth play.
    Mar 19 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cal-Maine Foods: A Morning Delight For Your Portfolio [View article]
    Agreed. Investors must be willing to stomach periodic fluctuations in the market price. That being said, Cal-Maine has a dominant market share, is expanding its customer base and management has delivered strong returns for the last few years. Investors must be willing to buy and hold for the long run. It will pay off!
    May 10 01:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Confessions Of A Value Addict: My Next Fix? Universal Corp. [View article]
    You are most certainly welcome! I enjoy finding undervalued companies with sustainable competitive advantages that have stood the test of time. I am glad you decided to keep them. I think it will pay off for you.
    May 7 11:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cooper Tire & Rubber Co.: Should Investors Load Up Or Tread Carefully? [View article]
    Great analysis! After running my numbers using your projections, I have the stock valued at $47.56. I used owner's earnings so that is most likely why our fair values differ slightly. I always prefer to invest in companies that are easy to understand. I will definitely be looking closer at Cooper Tire. Thanks for the knowledge!
    May 6 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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