Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Nick Gagnon  

View Nick Gagnon's Comments BY TICKER:

Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is Netflix Overvalued? [View article]
    200 million subs is ridiculous.

    Netflix bulls don't understand the high price elasticity of users; I know a number of people that don't use Netflix at all but pay because 'its cheap enough not to cancel'. What happens when Hulu, Prime and all the other competitors continue to take new original shows from Netflix, do you really think at that point in time after all this expansion they'll have the pricing power to raise prices and not lose subs, while continuing to build expensive content to keep whatever subs they have?

    You should be very concerned at the amount of cash Netflix is burning, try comparing the CFO statements of Netflix to HBO and you'll see how broken their business model is.
    Aug 6, 2015. 09:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan Sits On A Gold Mine [View article]
    It's the interest expense that matters, not the total debt. If FCX can get to cash flow positive and manage the interest payments, they can roll the debt over and gradually increase balance sheet leverage in time.
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan Sits On A Gold Mine [View article]
    Why tax-loss selling only in November? I can be done at any time...
    Aug 6, 2015. 08:51 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix Overvalued? [View article]
    Him and the rest of the board will continue to exercise their options at the quickest possible moment. Diluting the stock and taking retail investors along with it.
    Aug 5, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix Overvalued? [View article]
    I'm hoping it can stay at these levels so I can buy more 2017 puts on the cheap.
    Aug 4, 2015. 08:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Uses TCA Presence To Re-Establish Messaging And Strong Industry Presence [View article]
    I guess you've missed the point of monetizing proprietary content. Netflix bulls argue that their own content is better than other companies, which is ludicrous. Netflix is already in a dogfight with competitors for new content, it will have to spend more and more just to remain competitive, leading to higher prices for consumers. Then we'll see whether people care about price increases and leave, or don't and stay.
    Aug 4, 2015. 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Uses TCA Presence To Re-Establish Messaging And Strong Industry Presence [View article]
    What does that have to do with comparing proprietary content of HBO vs Netflix?
    Aug 3, 2015. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Uses TCA Presence To Re-Establish Messaging And Strong Industry Presence [View article]
    You have got to be kidding me...HBO has a ton of quality shows.

    I guess you have never heard of True Detective, or watch John Oliver (Bill Maurer when he was on)? HBO has a laundry list of quality shows with their own very strong cult following: VEEP, Silicon Valley, Ballers and fairly recent shows: Entourage, Flight of Concordes, East Bound and Down, Rome, Boardwalk Empire, Band of Brothers, The Wire, etc. etc. I actually watch very little TV, there's a lot of quality stuff on HBO that I would probably watch if I did spend more time on the couch.

    I've enjoyed Daredevil from what I'm seen, but for anyone that says the content is better on Netflix than HBO is seriously out to lunch.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Uses TCA Presence To Re-Establish Messaging And Strong Industry Presence [View article]
    Netflix has some good quality, but their content is about on par with AMC (Mad Men, Breaking Bad, The Walking Dead) or Showtime (Homeland, Dexter) and nowhere in the same ballpark as HBO. It's hard to believe they can have a better success rate than the industry.
    Discloser: Bearish position and looking to add LEAP OTM puts in the next few weeks.
    Jul 30, 2015. 08:14 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Just Happened To Freeport-McMoRan? [View article]
    I think FCX management made some comments regarding lowering Capex and bringing down costs. They've been relatively muted so far, giving investors no confidence in their capability. It's the first step toward de-leveraging and cleaning up the balance sheet mess they left the company with.
    Jul 29, 2015. 08:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan -10% as "all options are on the table" [View news story]
    For the record I think the company will be around long-term, although I admit I haven't done much digging into the financials yet. I may do some research next week....as I mentioned before I froze my position because I don't see the point in selling here, but I don't recommend a purchase of FCX either as there are many other alternatives in the basic materials space.
    Jul 24, 2015. 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan -10% as "all options are on the table" [View news story]
    I think the bulk of the negativity is the 'deer in headlights' approach by management. Commodity cycles will rebound and smart companies will be fine, the issue with FCX is that being so levered and so heavy in debt really limits their flexibility.

    Coming out of 2008 this company should have learned something.
    Jul 24, 2015. 08:14 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan -10% as "all options are on the table" [View news story]
    Hey Obi,
    Please provide some insight into a first hand look at that restructuring when FCX bought them. I remember they took on massive debt with that purchase but had worked hard to quickly pay it down afterwards.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan -10% as "all options are on the table" [View news story]
    I think FCX has been far too aggressive, it seems to be their mandate and now the company is in a very precarious situation. Too much leverage and going after one acquisition after another while maintaining high debt levels, and this oil and gas buy is clearly a massive mistake and could be the cause of a class-action lawsuit down the road. I have a frozen position that I'm holding in FCX (small) and I won't be adding anymore in the future, there's many other better commodity options out there.
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EWC: Consider Choosing Canada [View article]
    LOL? Are you serious....I don't know where you live, but winters have definitely not become any more mild to attract visitors willing to spend time here. I think 1000 year time-period is a bit much for most investors....
    Jul 23, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
374 Comments
374 Likes