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Nick Gagnon

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  • What To Do With Tesla's Stock [View article]
    It would be great for all these authors that publish sensational headlines, such as, 'what to do with?', present some sort of trading insight.
    Here's a partial list that of something that could add some value to this article: pivots, moving averages, standard deviations, stop losses, trailing stops, scaling in/out, ATR percentages; there's zero technical analysis; and nothing regarding money management, R/R, or executing a trading plan whatsoever.
    Jul 17 05:40 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor On Goldman Sach's Call On Netflix [View article]
    I'd also like to point out that this is a perfect time to manufacture a move in the stock. A holiday week with some of the lowest trading volumes of the year, perfect low-liquidity conditions. Who thinks this particular timing is coincidence?
    Jul 2 08:36 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Tesla Go To $180 Or $239 After Earnings? Doesn't Matter To Me [View article]
    Isn't this the same strategy you used on NFLX, which obviously didn't work out? And then you plan on following up a long straddle with straight long OTM calls? Combined I question the validity of this approach long-term.

    Disclosure: Short vertical OTM calls.
    May 5 08:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Steps On Shorts' Heads After Stomping Out Earnings Expectations And Moving Toward $400 [View article]
    And their off-balance sheets continue to rise...over 7 billion and counting....In the earnings call Hastings completely dismissed the question. I would like to see greater transparency there, why does it continue to balloon, what liabilities are being shuffled off the balance sheets.
    Jan 22 09:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash Cartel Shatters Profitability [View article]
    A few things...1) It takes a minimum seven years to establish a potash mine, there's a reason why BHP wanted to buy POT instead of looking to explore their own mining options. The barriers to entry are not as simple as you make them out to be.

    2) The price of potash tonnage has a strong correlation to crop yields, and as crop yields in corn remain high, the price will not drop anywhere near the $100-200 level some authors suggest. I worked on a Canadian Agricultural Census, and can tell you that every farmer uses Potash. The demand will keep the price stable.

    3) I've traded this sector for many years; in fact it was one of the primary reasons for my trading success bringing an account from less than 10k to well into the 6 figures. I will be looking to add as a buying opportunity. If you consider to enter a short here Redrut, you're crazy. You also offered a 'shorting' opportunity when TSLA was hovering around $110, but it never dropped much below $100.
    Furthermore, If you short POT, by prepared to eat that nearly 5% dividend yield.
    Jul 30 05:58 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Caveat Emptor On Goldman Sach's Call On Netflix [View article]
    Paulo, I saw a chart of someone that had posted the analyst history of NFLX over the last few years, and almost all calls included targets around current price (and not a major upward/downward move in target price from the previous price).
    This is what makes this latest target so absurd, it seems the analyst picked a pie-in-the-sky number then worked toward 'justifying' it.
    Jul 2 08:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strong Revenue Growth Predicted, Tesla Unlikely To Drop To $180 Post-Earnings [View article]
    This isn't a momentum stock? Wow. I have 15k equity hours trading, and this is definitely a momentum stock.
    May 7 06:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Believer In Netflix... It's Not Too Late [View article]
    bobelouis - I'm very disappointed this article came from a CFA charterholder.
    Mar 2 01:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Believer In Netflix... It's Not Too Late [View article]
    I might have to contact the CFAI to check the status of your credentials, that was a very weak article; non-existent financial analysis and insufficient editing.

    I think part of the reason TWT separated their segments in reporting, was to demonstrate the lack of a viable business model NFLX is engaged in. A middle man, with nothing proprietary that has already reaped the easy growth. We'll continue to see an increase in the declining rate of subs, and with increasing stiffer competition.
    Mar 2 09:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Content Expenses Continue To Skyrocket [View article]
    Gary, you don't seem to have a lot of trading experience so I'll clue you in on a few market realities. When a stock which is very heavily concentrated, and has very, very high trading volume relative to outstanding shares, it's fair to say the market price is misleading, borderline manipulated. Check out the institutional ownership, if just one of those major holders start to sell-off you will see a massive sell-off.

    If you don't believe me, look at what happened with Volks when it shot up 300% overnight.
    Feb 13 01:39 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Is Still Wildly Undervalued [View article]
    There is zero possibility of NFLX acquiring sports streaming rights. Rogers just paid 5 billion for NHL broadcasting rights; NFLX and it's negative FCFE can't compete with the big boys. It will be interesting to see how NFLX will pay their off-balance sheet liabilities due this year...
    Feb 12 05:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Progress From Amazon In 2013 [View article]
    Gary, I would really like to see you structure a trading plan, with clear risk/reward parameters, based on some sort of analysis (technical, fundamental, quantitiative).
    Feb 10 05:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Justify Netflix's Current Market Price? [View article]
    Netflix isn't disputing anything, it's a middle man hoping on the backs of the infrastructure established by ISPs, and provides a medium of content developed elsewhere. It's just a cheap service, a lot of people use (not me), but will never be anything proprietary outside of their search engine (which isn't even that spectacular)
    Jun 24 12:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Bears May Want To Hibernate [View article]
    I would argue the opposite Bill (and I'm sure I could drum up some valid technical indicators), but I would see the low short interest as a bearish sign. A high short interest on a stock trending up is definitely a bullish data-set. I wouldn't want to a be among a crowded short.
    Apr 23 07:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Even More Dangerous [View article]
    Of course trading data is relevant, what do you think valuations are based on - the price of trades! Why don't you enter a long position since you like the company so much...ridiculous these 'bulls' that don't invest or present any form of a trading strategy. Must be easy to say it's a great investment when you don't invest, were you touting Enron back in the day?
    Apr 4 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment