Nick Gogerty

So You Want to Run a Hedge Fund?

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I would assume they do, but don't have the detailed source data to verify that. I used summary data from a (iijournals.com) paper. Madoff and other giant funds are the reason I focus on median versus mean in terms of what a typical manager experiences running their fund business. Madoff's returns reported were around 11% and as a single non-AUM weighted variable shouldn't skew the median returns much. From a median AUM size perspective with thousands of funds Madoff shouldn't swing the median AUM figure too much either.

Black Swan Author Is an Awkward Bird

Here is a good Taleb presentation to congress, he is reasoned and focused. nickgogerty.typepad.co...

Black Swan Author Is an Awkward Bird

I understand and agree with the black swan concept. I just wish it was being pushed forward in a more functional way. The hysterics and personality etc. seem to cheapen the debate of the concept and its potential for being developed and then applied in a meaningful and considered way.

Beware Unquestionable Financial Beliefs

Here is the report on median house prices in detroit. www.ritholtz.com/blog/.../

What if Governments Are Directly Buying Stock ETFs?

I certainly hope govt's aren't buying shares. Buying extra tickets to the show, doesn't necessarily make the performance better.

Reset the Fed

I agree, with your thesis and do think the liquidity efforts have been overdone both qualitatively and quantitatively, but don't feel qualified to say how much or in what manner. In regards to inflation in the future, isolating the causitive impacts of current liquidity efforts versus fiscal weakness due to other debts will be difficult. like most complex issues, there could be main causitive agents, many of which can't be guessed at today.

U.S. Yield Curve: 3 Month to 30 Year

I have all the spreads in the movie, 3m, 1yr, 2y, 5yr, 7yr, 10yr and 30yr vs. all points on the curve, plenty of choice for everyone, assuming they have a taste US debt of course. If there isn't a maturity to suit you, they will probably dream on up. I Wonder what those California IOUs will look like?

Risk Managers' Skills or Lack Thereof

A fat panda. That is pretty interesting. Social motivations, shame, greed, fear, short term incentive structures etc. can often trump economically more rationally behaviours. I have always considered Leadership in action as the ability to make a short term awkward or costly decision for the long term better good.

Solar Could Fall 8% Per Year, Be Competitive in Italy by 2010

Solar typically is priced as a realized cost of energy over 20 years. Grid parity is a financial expectation over the life time of the Solar project and the grid rates.

Depending on your expected Fuel/Grid inflation assumptions going forward the grid parity point can vary significantly (think compounding effects). Given low Euro zone inflation the potential for higher inflation in the future could make solar approach financial grid parity sooner.

More on the Scarcity of Land Debate

Real Estate derives its value from its economic catchment basin, and has value relative to income available and perceived value as a positional good. 3:1 is the historical ratio in the US: nickgogerty.typepad.co...

What Color Will the Next Tax Increase Be?

I guess I should have qualified my "it looks like 1932-1933" statement. It was in regards to national mood and policy respone: AKA new Democrat president in office and Green Shoots being seen while the country slowly realizes what is going on. The mood of the country as described in the book "Since Yeserday" also seems to parallel today's media in general.

IP Video: King of the (Media) World

The 40% profit margins and 30% cash flow in this scenario for providing a commodity service (bit pipe) might be considered optimistic. Most utility service provider have margins that are a shadow of those figures.

The cable companies and Telcos provide walled garden services (voice and limited video channels) which are products of a fast fading era. Some other countries with less monopolistic offerings and regulatory regimes point the way forward and it is not 40% profit margins.

An Open Letter of Concern to ETN Sponsors

thanks for the article. There has been some good work done on ETNs tracking errors and potential credit risk you may find interesting. www.cxoadvisory.com/bl.../

Can Mass Megawatts Wind Power Secure Its Niche?

just a quick question. The $1.1m sale for 550KW works out to $2m per MW installed. This doesn't quite square with the less than $0.045/kwh unless the wind yield utilization cost is much higher than towers. Could you help clarify as Towers are going for $1.8-$2.1m/MW installed. Also interested in how much field time these things have had in terms gear life and repair. Fewer moving parts etc. helps lower TCO over 20 years span. One last question, how long will the company garuntee gear box etc. for as many big order are based on Project finance profiles with low tolerance for risk or a need to insure against mechanical failure. Getting a manufacturer warranty or solid field proven MTBF on gearboxes etc. will really be crucial milestones for the technology and the company. thanks.

Is 2009 Following a Great Depression Scenario?

The great depression was an economic and political process that unfolded over many years. The surprising thing is the similarity in solution (environmentalism), state centralization and even the green shoots speech. The similarities are amazing. I would suggest reading Fredrick Allen Lewis's Since Yesterday book. It will provide deep insight into the cultural, economic and political actions and beliefs that are very similar to today. rcm.amazon.com/e/cm?t=...