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Nick Gogerty  

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  • Swatch's Moat [View article]
    Thanks Geoff. Nice presentation and structure. Appreciate your sharing the data.
    May 20, 2015. 09:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Parity: What It Is, How It Works, And Why It Matters [View article]
    That sound interesting. A walk forward using the approach would be interesting as the covariance matrix shifts.
    Jan 22, 2015. 06:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk Parity: What It Is, How It Works, And Why It Matters [View article]
    Just curious about the data across other countries. going back to the 1950's in the US is helpful but effectively represents 2.5 major credit cycles in a single country. A more robust data set would be helpful. The assumptions in MPT and risk parity imply a relationship between credit, cash and equities that should function in similar fashion across functioning open economies.

    it would also be interesting to see further discussion of how to cope with the inherent instability of the covariance matrix over time and the impacts of rebalance choices all of which are variables not quiet fully addressed in MPT. If one had choosen a risk parity portfolio in 1980 for example using only historical data, how would the walkforward look vs. 1970? etc.
    Jan 22, 2015. 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Jeremy Grantham Is Right About Corporate Profit Margins [View article]
    Considering that 40% of the S&P 500 is activity outside of the US, the "long-term" boost may be a China etc. story under the hood. I would expect reversion to the mean based on my work I would be interested in others opinions on the emerging markets contribution. The thesis being early stage rapid growth may allow for higher margins before competition and more mature markets cause a reversion to the mean.
    Jan 4, 2015. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Book Review: Money - Master The Game [View article]
    Thanks for the review of this book, it was very helpful.
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farmland Values Decreased With Falling Grain Prices [View article]
    This may be helpful farm land returns 1911-2011.

    Farmland is bet on cash rent (yield) which is levered against commodity demand for soybeans and corn in the US. 40% of the corn crop goes to ethanol production and a significant share of Soybeans go to feed chinese chickens (protein demand). Both of these factors have pushed demand and new acre supply up globally. The prices for farmland will likely revert to trend as will grain prices.
    Nov 19, 2014. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Piketty's R>G Inequality Discovery Really Just A PE Ratio? [View article]
    One could argue the value of capital is not its claim on a share of GDP which reflects a historic value or as a crude proxy of Revenue flow.

    Capital's value comes in the form of expected profits. An enterprise producing 50% of GDP but no net profit has little value in capital terms, unless a potential acquirer can create a net profit. GDP reflects a past aggregate gross flow of value. Capital is valued or (priced) relative to future expected excess value flow accruing to the owner.

    Capital as priced in present terms always reflects future value expectations. Nobody pays much for a piece of land, factory or company that will yield 0% net return relative to the value put into it.
    Aug 26, 2014. 11:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gogerty, The Nature Of Value [View article]
    For Those interested in Free Chapters and a preview of the graphics in The Nature of Value, visit

    There is also a FREE Nature of Value mobile app in the i-tunes store and Google play store. If you have questions, feel free to ask me. I am the author and a seeking alpha contributor.
    Aug 10, 2014. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Seems To Be An Unstoppable Force Of Nature, Not Unlike The Jet Stream [View article]
    Those interested in Bitcoin may be interest in a currency representing solar electricity generation. Caveat: I am an economic advisor for the project.
    Jun 12, 2014. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla, SolarCity, And The Birth Of The Lithium-Based Economy [View article]
    and if a graphene ultra-capacitor should have higher energy density storage capacity in a few years or some other meta-material? Current "winner" tech is less important than momentum on the experience curves. see below.

    Just saying Lithium doesn't have a guarantee to be the storage tech of the future. As storage densities increase the underlying technologies may shift to other materials. Lithium is mature and the cost curve is promising but might want to take a look at competitors and there performance trajectories.

    and now for a plug, my book is out from Columbia University addressing technology and a bunch of other things.
    May 7, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Revisiting Berkshire Hathaway's Newspaper Portfolio [View article]
    One aspect to Lee that should be addressed is the local competitive dynamic. The Buffalo news only became a winner after its sunday edition launch killed the other competitor leaving it with monopolist's margins. If the competitors to Lee's major revenue generator's are in a weaker position and likely to go under, margins and profitability could expand significantly after their demise.

    Lee enterprises may be sick, but if others are sicker and disappear, Lee could recover rapidly. Economic strength even in a declining industry like newspapers is driven by the competitive context on a go forward basis. Lee will also need to allocate capital to those papers which have a distinct survival edge without allocating to those markets or areas where the competitive position makes little sense.
    Aug 17, 2012. 07:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trillion Dollar Trading System From 1871 To 2011 [View article]
    The data doesn't include dividends or an inflation adjustment. The original series does offer these. Drop me a line if you would like the sheet or just put in "shiller Data" into google and get it directly from his website.
    Jan 9, 2012. 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trillion Dollar Trading System From 1871 To 2011 [View article]
    The plot on the Semi-log chart is first order curve fit using the default excel function. I don't believe the means are actually important. My own opinion is that the "market" is the output of a very complex function and so the mean is highly unstable.

    I believe more in trying to understand individual companies. The risk of using the market mean relative to its wide variance as seen by the 20 year rolling returns is the potential for institutional shortfalls such as pension funds.

    The plots or more illustrative of what may be flawed expectations of a highly unstable and complicated process.
    Jan 9, 2012. 07:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Trillion Dollar Trading System From 1871 To 2011 [View article]
    One caveat, Shiller manufactured the data pre-1957 as the index in its present construction only started then.
    Jan 6, 2012. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Would Put An End To The Gold Bull Market? [View article]
    Don't forget the potential impact of non-US Central Bank selling. Although unlikely, if it took place, would be a potential damper.
    Aug 22, 2011. 10:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment