Nick Gogerty

IP Video: King of the (Media) World

The 40% profit margins and 30% cash flow in this scenario for providing a commodity service (bit pipe) might be considered optimistic. Most utility service provider have margins that are a shadow of those figures.

The cable companies and Telcos provide walled garden services (voice and limited video channels) which are products of a fast fading era. Some other countries with less monopolistic offerings and regulatory regimes point the way forward and it is not 40% profit margins.

RIM's Secret Weapon: Lower Bandwidth Consumption

relying on bandwidth efficiency as a business operational edge is the very definition of an exponentially shrinking moat.

10 Hedge Fund Best Ideas

nice article and I like the approach and work on this one. Well done Meb.

The 10 Most Important Technology Developments of 2008

the singularity progresses...

seriously, this is a myopic view of "technology". biotechnology and materials sciences "nanotech" among others made great progress. The title should be information technology.

2009 Will Be a Painful Year for Mobile Device Vendors

commodification from a feature set is hitting the phone market at the same time that phones last longer for consumers. A double whammy. Shrinking replacement market with a lower differentiability on the margin line. Looks like lower revenues and lower margins. Time to start looking for the next bubble.

Each Time I See Google's Android Pitch I Like It Less and Less

the real cost of the phone is the network access(infrastructure)... the software is marginal to that. Looks for changes in network technologies or topologies to shift what is actually a shrinking and rapidly commodified business. A good software radio, open roaming protocols eventually rolled out on a localized basis, Wimax etc. could radically shift the cost structure. bits is bits. A more interesting wireless play is Google's move O3B. A Bigger human impact than android potentially.

Who Will Win the Home Entertainment Battle?

Internet protocol wins. The box, vendor etc. will be irrelevant in 5 years time. various fads and phases will show up. In the end it will be just another mega browser. IP uber alles.

Flash Seems to Be Coming to Apple's iPhone - But Is That a Good Thing?

flash has support for VOIP. nice way to tunnel through the international dialling rates. Carriers won't like it, but it is inevitable.

Will Google Phone Be Good for Carriers?

The carriers offer a walled garden called Voice. this will disappear in 5-10 years and with it the premium they charge. A combination of VOIP, SIP trunking and inteligent Unified communication will end run the garden. The Carriers will then offer a commodity IP dialtone at reasonable rates, there will of course be the expected impact on margins and equity values of those carriers. IP uber alles: Music companies, TV & Cable, phone companies...

15 Value Hedge Funds - Portfolio Update

Meb is a pretty bright guy and synthesis of other concepts can be very useful.

iPhone App Developers Find Weaknesses in AT&T's Fake Walls

Most telco's are closed systems by design and now by business model requirement. Does anyone really believe that overpriced PSTN service won't be bumped by IP based services. $0.15 txt messages etc. are the dinasours diet. The Telco's are in a commodity business, they just don't know it yet. The future is going to see telcos eeking out smaller margins as they really only supply pipes. Bits is bits. IP uber alles.