Nick Gogerty

Stress Test Results Seem to Be Changing Daily

In retrospect, the Stress tests were very well named :)

Banking Won't Be Fun for a While

Banking shouldn't be fun, it is risk management.

Liquidity, Solvency and Acute vs. Chronic Banking Systems

my own thought in terms of replacement operators are private credit providers. Eventually they would morph into banks. Think of the trading houses and agents in Japan.

It would be in efficient and fragile, but evolve and become robust. The current fix may not create a robust system, but rather maintain a chronic one that is systemically beyond recovery.

The Dividend Dilemma

nice article. The E in the PE ratio is shrinking pretty fast and the average PE on the S&P is around 15. Average means half of the time the ratio is below that. In a world where junk yields +20%.
A 5% yield on the S&P, depending on your forward looking earning bet 20:1 looks a little high. The P component could see 20-30 hit. Equities are extremely high given the level of uncertainty right now and contraction in earnings. S&P 600 isn't a crazy number for valuation.

Five Key Quotes from MBIA on the Monoline Industry

The media spotlight has focused on other bright shiny objects, but the monolines are massive problems which really haven't gone away. Expect the muni portfolio to start looking rough in 9-18 months as the demand on services increases while property tax re-assessments (rolling 7 year basis) shrink the tax base.

Is the U.S. Banking System Safe?

Analysis and conclusions correct.

Home Equity LTVs In Stratosphere

nice article. Some good data compilation.

How Ivory Tower Economists Created the Housing Bubble

affordability. A capital asset is only worth what someone can pay. nickgogerty.typepad.co...