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Nick Gogerty » Comments » BIL

  • Bear Market? Numbers Don't Add Up [View article]
    Equities yield roughly 4.5% on a PE basis. Historical average from 1930 for the US is 6.8%. Historical equity risk premium over 10yr US TSY is 3-4%. The market is either expecting 30%+ earnings growth or it may be in for the surprise you mention. I bet on the surprise being more likely which would be a 20-30% decline. Dow 8,500.
    Sep 25 08:54 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Treasury Bond Bubble [View article]
    CDS counterparty risk and muni bond insurer relatd downgrades, make me want to run to the short of the curve for awhile.
    Jan 21 10:57 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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