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Nick Pollari

 
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  • Mark Thoma says ~200K people will lose unemployment benefits in California and other states today. Under the terms of last year's agreement in Congress, benefits would be cut off if jobless rates fell below certain thresholds; despite a weak job market, rates have been falling. "Will a cut in benefits motivate workers who have become dependent on the program to go out and find jobs?”  [View news story]
    One can only pray
    May 12 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    I won't need to write an article when it hits $11 because that isn't a reality as far as I'm concerned. You should check out the CNN Money article on DDMG as well.
    May 11 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    Looks like some of that hype is flowing out of the firm. $7.50 now from the about $9 when I wrote this article.
    May 11 04:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    I would actually really appreciate a full education on the hologram business if you have the time. Please message me about it if you have the opportunity.
    May 10 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    Once again everyone,

    I maintain my current view that management is certainly painting you a rosy picture and selling you a dream. I don't think its a pipe dream but I think they aren't acknowledging the risks of their new "strategy."

    One thing every bull case here hasn't mentioned is the total compensation for Textor for 2011. Pretty damn high when your fiscal net income was > -$100M. He has a huge incentive to keep this price elevated and he cant even vest his options until $9.50.
    May 8 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    Thank you for your support. I enjoy the conversation whether I agree with him or not. You never know when you might genuinely miss something and it takes someone like "Modernist" to point it out. This just isn't one of those cases.
    May 7 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    Nice other two comments by the way... You provide some great evidence for your "ideas".
    May 6 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    Facts and fundamentals, who needs em right?
    May 6 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    I am not short yet but will be announcing it in these comments when I am.
    May 6 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    1st paragraph; I understand that the financials presented are what you can call "backward looking" but due to the attempting shift in their model I cannot even attempt to forecast future financials. I understand the meaningful change but that isn't going to happen instantly like the flick of a light switch.

    2nd paragraph; Simply mentioning that you are going to attempt to move into new markets doesn't really say much. Actions speak much louder than a few words on entering new target markets. Without providing sound data and potential forecasts of these new markets and a detailed explanation of their strategy I remain skeptical. Remember, its all just words until it becomes actions.

    3rd paragraph regarding upcoming issues; I am not sitting in my office with my paperwork but if I am not mistaken the number of shares that are locked up is quiet significant. The firm only has 40M or so shares outstanding. For their sake I hope they have some big presentation/announcement on a really bright future based on some hard data to offset their next earnings release.

    Regarding their conference call; They had a fine conference call in their explanations but I want to actually see change. I don't want to be a shareholder hoping/praying that their new strategy is going to be realized in full and relatively quickly.
    May 6 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    My bear case is based on the fundamentals presented to me and the fact that changes in business models don't generate results instantaneously. I understand their ideas about their future, where they want to be, and what they are striving for. In fact it is actually a moderately decent idea with potential. That doesn't mean that all of this comes to fruition in the next quarter or the quarter after that. Even for such a small firm a strategic shift takes time.

    Their bull case is presented in a way that doesn't acknowledge the risks involved in my opinion. If I presented you a case where we could grow our firm XX% per year between international and domestic growth using a new strategy I am sure you would be intrigued. If I failed to acknowledge that this new untested strategy came with risks I would be offering quiet a skewed view wouldn't I?

    Regarding my use of the word "majority";
    I simply don't want to waste my time looking up the stats. These are known and very public facts.
    May 6 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Hologram Tours Present Big Opportunity For Live Nation And Madison Square Garden [View article]
    Like I said in my article, love the tech, the innovation, and the ideas. I just don't love their financials. All I'm saying is their next quarter is going to say a lot. $32M in cash and equivalents as of Q4 2011 and $37M due in fiscal 2012. That doesn't look great. You may also want to look at their FCF's, I opted not to include that in my article since the average reader doesn't understand it. It tells a good story about the firm.
    May 5 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    The fundamentals are that this company is running itself into the ground. Hype is great, their innovation is great, but unprofitable firms that are running low on cash and have a substantial amount of debt to pay back within the next year are never positive for a firm.
    May 5 09:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Digital Domain Media Group: Cool Tech Doesn't Mean Profitable Firm [View article]
    Paragraph 1: Merely reflects my opinion of the DDMG shareholder base.

    Paragraph 3: The rationale isn't the problem behind the investment, the problem behind the investment is the same problem facing the entire for-profit education sector. That sweeping generalization is pretty concrete fact; a vast majority of students who go to for-profit schools take out student debt, and a vast majority of those students fall delinquent on their debts.

    Paragraph 4,5: Usually new business models are modeled toward accelerating growth (which it is not), reducing costs (which it is not), or carving our a niche market (which they are attempting to do). Not to mention that switching to a new business model essentially has no effect on SGA expenses. It still doesn't change the fact that they are spending 100% of their revenue to sell their product.

    Paragraph 6: As you can see I very clearly stated that it was my opinion. Last I checked, small media company do not have intangibles that represent > 20% of their entire asset base. That is a pretty significant amount.

    Paragraph 7: It is a positive for the company and I didn't say it wasn't. The problem is that the company isn't profitable. Therefore, in the end, I believe it is a waste of Floridian (I live in Florida) tax dollars.

    I would be happy to let all of you know when we decide to enter into a short position.
    May 5 08:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible Hologram Tours Present Big Opportunity For Live Nation And Madison Square Garden [View article]
    Here is a realistic view of the DDMG financials

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    May 4 08:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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