Nick Zheng

Long/short equity, event-driven, biotech
Nick Zheng
Long/short equity, event-driven, biotech
Contributor since: 2013
Agree, valuation is low, but it may keep low for a foreseeable future for the following reasons: 1) approved drug is just an improved chemo; 2) yes, future rests on MM-121 and MM-302, but so far nothing really convincing (actually quite disappointing).
"$16-$20 could actually be cheap". It seems you really believe a shell is worth $100M. CLDN is the latest example. After r-merger, it trades almost at the same price. I will be very surprised KBIO will be surprised to settle above 5.
MEIP? The doctor could have made a wrong diagnosis.
This long (very long) seeking alpha article may lack concrete evidence that APDN is falling. Its technology is finding more use, and government is giving out more grants. DNA authentication is an interesting technology, and I see its future. May be a good buy after 50% knock down. The price could be hyped, though.
please note the reduction of IL-17A is shown in ex-vivo, not in human bodies. So early!
VTAE has shown magic numbers in ex-vivo data, but only find they are wrong in later studies (both Alzheimer and diabetics). So will this be exceptional? really doubt.
Excellent article! If you have a news letter on biotech investing, I would subscribe.
"...2 of which are in late-stage development". What are those 2 drugs?? It will be wise not to jump the gun.
sorry, typed wrong word. should be "addictive", not "additive".
I am yet to be convinced that TRV130 is something significantly different from Morphine. It still targets mu receptor, and still additive like morphine. In addition, TRV130 is not more effective than morphine, though side effect profile looks better, but FDA should require more additive study. There are many versions of opioid pain killers with better additive profiles. A very long road for TRV103 ahead.
The only potential revolutionary pain killer in pipeline could be from Cara Therapeutics (CARA).
Not excited by TRV103. Don't you think we already have enough additive opioids on the market?
An excellent article on a biotech stock. Just finished reading and amazed by your research on it. Your expertise as well as your time/effort are very appreciated.
I have not read such a scientific and objective piece at seeking alpha for a while. This one is simply beautiful and shining. Enjoyed it.
Thanks!
Nice article. I see CLVS could be sold before commercialization. The management was in a mood of selling. The company is at much better shape for a high premium. Two BTDs with blockbuster potential should grab $5-10B. The wonderful PARP inhibitor could be expand to other solid tumors.
the claim of unapprovable sounds like bold prediction with lots of steroid.
Hope it runs to 10. Why revenue is so low ($1M/quarter and going down)??? Who wants radioactive materials inside the body? CS-131 has been around for so many years, and sudden breakthrough? Some must believe so.
Nice article. I guess this co may not stand as a single for too long. How do you think?
I have no doubts in long perspective for biotech industry. Technology, demographics, and policy are merging to support better drugs and novel therapies.
Short term gyrations are inherited in its risk nature of drug development, and they provide numerous trading opportunities.
Long term is good for investors; short term good for traders. Better stick to an individual's money managing philosophy and risk tolerance.
Agree. I like a piece of negative article. This article showed all facts: imbalance, lack of dose effects, very small numbers of pts in trials, and potential troubles from translation of surrogate biomarker to medical events. Nothing is wrong with this article. The conclusion is for every investor to make, either long or short on your own money. I just welcome any critical thinking.
stock price going to $1.50 (complete failure)? You'd better keep your fingers crossed. you will be lucky to get cash value (0.3/share?).
$MEIP is a reminder again: do not trust non-controlled small clinical trials, no matter how good they are. Also, MEIP has a bad history: it was failed Marshall Edwards, Inc, a subsidiary of Novogen (NVGN)!
It was a junk, and now it just gets proved again.
Better buy better biotech stocks, preferably over $1B market cap.
good question. I would rather read an article written by someone who puts real money there.
Nice article. I am long RMTI. Now I am thinking to have a paired trading: short AMAG/Long RMTI. RMTI is valued only half of AMAG, which should be inverted soon.
This co is dubious. Excellent article. The stock is ripe to drop back to $3-4.
I am surprised that an article of such a low quality is accepted by Seeking Alpha. Only questions, neither answers, nor any useful analysis.
Very nice piece about a failed biotech co. A life cycle that many IPOs of 2013-2014 may eventually go through.
Nice article. If NASH phase II works out, Tobira (ex Regado) would be another PCYC-like turnaround story (from 0.55 to 140).
Similar situations may happen for other "failed" biotech stocks: SPHS, KBIO. SPHS may change direction as soon as the management find its drug for prostate does not work out, but not clear until today. KBIO still has a phase II drug (KB004) that will announce data by mid 15. The mAb seems to be effective for some types of cancer. So stay tuned.
low quality article. You should have presented the data in a comprehensive manner, and be critical. Why once weekly has no responders, and worse than once every three weeks? hard to explain, I think. Few is interested in how big is the market before the drug looks promising. So far not really.
And the tech is not "revolutionary". There are many nanoparticle delivery methods under testing. For examples: MACK and SVON.
Interesting to read. Historically biotech outperforms, but it could easily correct by over 30%. So I will not be surprised to see IBB at 200 again. Valuation is really stretched. Even cancer immuno-therapy such as CAR-T takes years to do clinical trials. The side effects still need to be worked out. In addition, there are lots of hypes surrounding the key word immuno-cancer-therapy. For example, ADXS is using the bacterial infection that has been tested for a decade. There is no real data to support it has helped HPV cancer from its failed phase II trial in India. And newer and safer immuno-cancer therapy may emerge or it is ignored right now, such as SRNE's investment in Neukoplast CAR-TNK.
Biotech wind could blow strong suddenly, and change direction very quick. History repeats. We have seen wax and wane a few times in many hot technologies/drug development: RNA drugs (anti-sense, interference, ribozyme, etc), gene therapy, immunotherapy, stem cells. The only area that has been consistently yielding good data/drugs seem to be in monoclonal antibodies.
Nevertheless, I am positive in biotech. Long term, it outperforms general stock market. IBB is where we should put our retirement money there and not touch it for 10-20 years.
Biochemically, PRX302 sounds a perfect drug, a targeted bomb, for localized prostate disease. Phase IIb data look good, even higher dropout rate in placebo seems to tell the drug is working. The only data that I do not like is that the prostate size does not shrink more in PRX302 arm, but I do not understand why.
Looking forward, this co still have hopes. There are a few pathways to move forward.
1) stick to PRX302 should the management still have strong confidence in it.
2) license out PRX302, and let others test it on local prostate cancer/BPH. (Big US pharm may not take it on failed interim analysis. But some Chinese and Indian pharm may grab it without paying high upfront. Considering the huge markets there, cheaper clinical trials, more predictable regulatory pathways, this drug should be enticing to them.) The IPSS scores are very subjective, which require careful control in clinical setting to ensure the trials will yield good data. I will call it an art rather than science. Risks of BPH trials are extremely high even the drug works indeed because of high placebo effect.
3) ditch PRX302, and change the direction. Over 20M cash and smart management could find a new promising drug, for example, adaptive immunotherapy.
I think management has to do something. This is a cheap stock, a good buy for value investors who have enough patience. An open-minded management is the key to future success.
two questions:
1) Does physical reduction of the viral load really helped cure the disease? A single infected cells could produce tens of millions of viral particles.
2) Was the reduction of the viral load really due to the filtration? The immune system could be awaken and clear them out.
Not to mention the patient had all other treatments, and a single patient. If such a simple method (using an affinity column) could cure the disease, why so late today?
"If the down trend continues, then it is a clear signal that somebody knows something and it ain't positive. Longs beware."
Possible, but not necessary negative results.
BSTC is way overvalued for its tiny income from AUXL. Commercial potential may reach its bottleneck soon. Cellulite is a cosmetic issue. Unlike for curved penis or finger, I doubt patients will like the painful shots.
The biggest issue is that after careful examination of ADXS-HPV phase II trial in India, the trial may be a total failure, which was done with many red flags. I have written an article on it months ago, and the management could not answer my questions about the toxicity issues about two positive arms. So no follow up articles from me. The collaboration with Merck is nothing, absolutely nothing. Have you seen a collaboration with a pharm giant when the partner only provides testing drug only, and it is worth a PR?
All those PRs and articles are useless without validated trial data.