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Nick Zheng

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  • Sophiris's PRX302 Misses Efficacy Threshold In Interim Readout [View article]
    Biochemically, PRX302 sounds a perfect drug, a targeted bomb, for localized prostate disease. Phase IIb data look good, even higher dropout rate in placebo seems to tell the drug is working. The only data that I do not like is that the prostate size does not shrink more in PRX302 arm, but I do not understand why.

    Looking forward, this co still have hopes. There are a few pathways to move forward.
    1) stick to PRX302 should the management still have strong confidence in it.

    2) license out PRX302, and let others test it on local prostate cancer/BPH. (Big US pharm may not take it on failed interim analysis. But some Chinese and Indian pharm may grab it without paying high upfront. Considering the huge markets there, cheaper clinical trials, more predictable regulatory pathways, this drug should be enticing to them.) The IPSS scores are very subjective, which require careful control in clinical setting to ensure the trials will yield good data. I will call it an art rather than science. Risks of BPH trials are extremely high even the drug works indeed because of high placebo effect.

    3) ditch PRX302, and change the direction. Over 20M cash and smart management could find a new promising drug, for example, adaptive immunotherapy.

    I think management has to do something. This is a cheap stock, a good buy for value investors who have enough patience. An open-minded management is the key to future success.
    Dec 17, 2014. 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Aethlon Medical up on successful Ebola treatment [View news story]
    two questions:
    1) Does physical reduction of the viral load really helped cure the disease? A single infected cells could produce tens of millions of viral particles.

    2) Was the reduction of the viral load really due to the filtration? The immune system could be awaken and clear them out.

    Not to mention the patient had all other treatments, and a single patient. If such a simple method (using an affinity column) could cure the disease, why so late today?
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bearish behavior for Alcobra [View news story]
    "If the down trend continues, then it is a clear signal that somebody knows something and it ain't positive. Longs beware."
    Possible, but not necessary negative results.
    Sep 29, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: BioSpecifics Announces Positive XIAFLEX Data For Cellulite [View article]
    BSTC is way overvalued for its tiny income from AUXL. Commercial potential may reach its bottleneck soon. Cellulite is a cosmetic issue. Unlike for curved penis or finger, I doubt patients will like the painful shots.
    Aug 27, 2014. 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merck Collaboration Could Add $150M To Advaxis' Present Value [View article]
    The biggest issue is that after careful examination of ADXS-HPV phase II trial in India, the trial may be a total failure, which was done with many red flags. I have written an article on it months ago, and the management could not answer my questions about the toxicity issues about two positive arms. So no follow up articles from me. The collaboration with Merck is nothing, absolutely nothing. Have you seen a collaboration with a pharm giant when the partner only provides testing drug only, and it is worth a PR?
    All those PRs and articles are useless without validated trial data.
    Aug 26, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Bio - You Can See This Data, But Not That Data [View article]
    yes, Linda Powers needs cash in 3Q. But NWBO always does some tricks to hype stocks before selling shares. So wait for a jump before shorting it.
    Aug 13, 2014. 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    with this Ebola, investors start to know the name TKMR, not just ALNY. So upward potential is huge.
    Aug 8, 2014. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira up premarket after FDA alters TKM-Ebola IND status [View news story]
    agree. Just the beginning of RNAi story about TKMR.
    Aug 8, 2014. 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Ebola Trade Run Its Course? [View article]
    One of greatest articles I have ever read at Sorry for Adam F who does not know the science. He is more interested in helping his buddies. He is right at 80%, but for this one, he was terribly wrong, as wrong as he was on DNDN's provenge and maybe SRPT's drug for DMD.
    Aug 5, 2014. 12:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira riding another company's Ebola wave [View news story]
    Suddenly there is a "secrete" mouse serum that 'cure" ebola?! who really believe it? RNAi from TKMR worked, and much more effective. It takes lots to time to develop an anti-infection disease. I agree the urgency will shorten the development time, but you can not say a secrete mouse serum (antibodies) used on two patients is the solution. The conclusion by some is too quick. And there is no logic that FDA would not lift the clinical hold ASAP on TKMR because they allowed two patients to use the mouse serum.
    Aug 4, 2014. 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Data Not A Home Run, But Got Company In Great Scoring Position [View article]
    good article. The take-home message is:

    "If all 5 missing patients were non-responders, results would not be statistically significant." So from FDA view, this trial failed.

    But co said ITT was stat sig, but hidden in 8 k filing. Why not tell us in its PR? what is P value? Why drop out? The ratio is not right 4:1.

    The per protocol analysis is Tricky, that is why a biotech company often states the data of per protocol analysis as circumstantial evidence in PR. So tricky as the CEO.

    Staying away has higher chance to survive in a land filled with unmarked landmines.
    Jul 25, 2014. 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Modern Management Theory Perspective Of The Chinese Dream [View article]
    What is Chinese Dream? I know American Dream: a good job, a good house, a good family, and a good future for our children so every one will be respected to live with his/her dignity in a fair and free society.

    When someone made a copy of word xxx Dream, did he know what a person really wants?

    Fuck any xxx Dream that has no concrete meanings.

    Jul 24, 2014. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: Is The Clinical Hold Sell-Off A Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    A well thought article. Enjoyed reading it. RNAi looks to be out of favor because of fatigue. Not excited about RNAi for near term (1-2 years), but TKMR is a stock to keep because of lower valuation than its peers. A safe stock to play.
    Jul 22, 2014. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ugly Truth Behind Ohr Pharma [View article]
    Dr. Sacerdote has an odd conclusion, but he did think the data is promising in visual acuity. If this is true, then I do believe that squalamine eye drop has a future even with competition from OPHT.

    The history of a biotech is full of drama. So there is no logic that a cheap chemical could not turn out to be a miracle. In reality, there is a long history of development of squalamine that has already cost tens of millions shareholders' dollars. It sounds like that OHRP finally has made it to work for good.

    Your analysis is based on historical analysis. While that is useful, but the historical data should be trumped by more recent validation. Like Adam Feuerstain who was not scientifically trained, his analysis sometimes driven by emotional conviction in his brain (often from other hedge fund sources) rather than driven by updated clinical data. He did excellent jobs, about 80% chance to be right. Because of his influence, when he is wrong, lots of traders/investors got trapped. One case was DNDN in which he had wrote articles after articles predicting immunotherapy would not work, but it did worked and stock soured to 50. I have met investors who had lost millions betting its failure by reading AF's stories again and again.
    Jul 1, 2014. 10:57 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conatus Pharmaceuticals: Following In Intercept Pharma's Blockbuster Catalyst Steps [View article]
    An interesting article, but overly bullish. The tainted history of Emricasan behooves more cautious evaluations from phase II trials before confidence build up. Nonetheless, I am long, and I believe this stock is undervalued in view of huge upward potential.
    Jun 30, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment