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Nick Zheng

 
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  • Northwest Bio - You Can See This Data, But Not That Data [View article]
    yes, Linda Powers needs cash in 3Q. But NWBO always does some tricks to hype stocks before selling shares. So wait for a jump before shorting it.
    Aug 13 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Tekmira Clinical Hold Lifted [View article]
    with this Ebola, investors start to know the name TKMR, not just ALNY. So upward potential is huge.
    Aug 8 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira up premarket after FDA alters TKM-Ebola IND status [View news story]
    agree. Just the beginning of RNAi story about TKMR.
    Aug 8 07:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has The Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Ebola Trade Run Its Course? [View article]
    One of greatest articles I have ever read at seekingalpha.com. Sorry for Adam F who does not know the science. He is more interested in helping his buddies. He is right at 80%, but for this one, he was terribly wrong, as wrong as he was on DNDN's provenge and maybe SRPT's drug for DMD.
    Aug 5 12:20 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira riding another company's Ebola wave [View news story]
    Suddenly there is a "secrete" mouse serum that 'cure" ebola?! who really believe it? RNAi from TKMR worked, and much more effective. It takes lots to time to develop an anti-infection disease. I agree the urgency will shorten the development time, but you can not say a secrete mouse serum (antibodies) used on two patients is the solution. The conclusion by some is too quick. And there is no logic that FDA would not lift the clinical hold ASAP on TKMR because they allowed two patients to use the mouse serum.
    Aug 4 01:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inovio Data Not A Home Run, But Got Company In Great Scoring Position [View article]
    good article. The take-home message is:

    "If all 5 missing patients were non-responders, results would not be statistically significant." So from FDA view, this trial failed.

    But co said ITT was stat sig, but hidden in 8 k filing. Why not tell us in its PR? what is P value? Why drop out? The ratio is not right 4:1.

    The per protocol analysis is Tricky, that is why a biotech company often states the data of per protocol analysis as circumstantial evidence in PR. So tricky as the CEO.

    Staying away has higher chance to survive in a land filled with unmarked landmines.
    Jul 25 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Modern Management Theory Perspective Of The Chinese Dream [View article]
    What is Chinese Dream? I know American Dream: a good job, a good house, a good family, and a good future for our children so every one will be respected to live with his/her dignity in a fair and free society.

    When someone made a copy of word xxx Dream, did he know what a person really wants?

    Fuck any xxx Dream that has no concrete meanings.


    Jul 24 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tekmira Pharmaceuticals: Is The Clinical Hold Sell-Off A Buying Opportunity? [View article]
    A well thought article. Enjoyed reading it. RNAi looks to be out of favor because of fatigue. Not excited about RNAi for near term (1-2 years), but TKMR is a stock to keep because of lower valuation than its peers. A safe stock to play.
    Jul 22 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Ugly Truth Behind Ohr Pharma [View article]
    Dr. Sacerdote has an odd conclusion, but he did think the data is promising in visual acuity. If this is true, then I do believe that squalamine eye drop has a future even with competition from OPHT.

    The history of a biotech is full of drama. So there is no logic that a cheap chemical could not turn out to be a miracle. In reality, there is a long history of development of squalamine that has already cost tens of millions shareholders' dollars. It sounds like that OHRP finally has made it to work for good.

    Your analysis is based on historical analysis. While that is useful, but the historical data should be trumped by more recent validation. Like Adam Feuerstain who was not scientifically trained, his analysis sometimes driven by emotional conviction in his brain (often from other hedge fund sources) rather than driven by updated clinical data. He did excellent jobs, about 80% chance to be right. Because of his influence, when he is wrong, lots of traders/investors got trapped. One case was DNDN in which he had wrote articles after articles predicting immunotherapy would not work, but it did worked and stock soured to 50. I have met investors who had lost millions betting its failure by reading AF's stories again and again.
    Jul 1 10:57 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Conatus Pharmaceuticals: Following In Intercept Pharma's Blockbuster Catalyst Steps [View article]
    An interesting article, but overly bullish. The tainted history of Emricasan behooves more cautious evaluations from phase II trials before confidence build up. Nonetheless, I am long, and I believe this stock is undervalued in view of huge upward potential.
    Jun 30 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind: Strap Yourselves In And Prepare For Lift-Off... Or Not [View article]
    Four issues made NKTR's Exubera a failed product even at strong marketing arm of Pfizer: 1) bulky; 2) lung function tests; 3) lung cancer risk; 4) 30% more expensive than injectable insulin.

    MNKD's Afrezza solved issue #1, but not #2 and #3; we have no info about the pricing of Afrezza (but expecting more expensive). So the question is: will easy-to-use make Afrezza a success while Exubera failed miserably?

    Afrezza is version 2.0 of Exubera, a better product. But financially, we all know MNKD may have more troubles: little cash, a big debt, dilutive convertibles/warrants, and lack of a deep-pocketed marketing partner.
    Jun 30 08:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Phase II Calamity Dooms Ohr's Eye Drops [View article]
    Your article sounds odd. I could not understand why an eye drop twice a day has no value if it works, just because there is an injectable competitor.

    First, doctors could not mix Fovista (RNA) with Lucentis (or other antibodies) in a vial and inject them as a single syringe if the phase III trial is not done as such. That is all your assumption without evidence that mixing will not have any unwanted effects.

    Second, your quick conclusion that an eye drop will not be used by patients or recommended by doctors is like a quick conclusion by Adam Feuerstain that the trial has failed dismally just because p>0.05. My mother has used an eye cream twice daily for more than two decades until she passed away. While Fovista is a competitor to squalamine eye drop, but they do not appear exclusive. They have different delivery routes. To me, an eye drop is easier to administered than an injection. Your conclusion is really odd because it is against our common sense. Maybe because you are a doctor, your goal is different from a patient. While both a doctor and a patient want an effective medicine, a doctor wants something that make them indispensable, smart and rich, but a patient wants something that is easy and cheap.
    Jun 28 02:26 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ohr Pharmaceutical: No Cure In Sight [View article]
    look around we compare the data of squalamine eye drop in visual improvement, it performs pretty well (65% improvement vs 62% of Fovista of $OPHT) even though the p=0.18. The p value could improve as the size goes up and the time lapses (more improvement was seen as trial progresses).
    It looks to me there is no reason that FDA will not allow to change the primary endpoint. Visual acuity is more relevant.
    Adam Feuerstein's article really pushed sellers waiting to trigger the selling buttons, but his arguments is more journalist style than scientifically sound.
    Jun 27 08:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did Short Sellers In Inovio Listen To The Wrong Piper? [View article]
    Agree. Just release the data and let's see. But would INO delay (hide) the data as NWBO? I had never met a public biotech like NWBO before, but it could be used (followed) by others.
    Jun 23 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merrimack Pharmaceuticals: The Sleeping Giant Of Cancer Care [View article]
    Future of MACK is getting murky after Sanofi walks away. MM-121 is still questionable (Confirmatory trials are needed to test the hypothesis of biomarkers, and thus smaller targeted cancer populations at best). MM-398 is the life support now, but we could not deny the questions surrounding its trial design and commercial potential should it be approved in a year later. Should MM-121 turn out to be effective for biomarkers-positive pts, or should FDA approve MM-398 as 2nd-line prostate cancer, this co has the potential to double or triple. My bet is that this stock will languish for months as confidence in its management and pipeline erodes.
    Jun 20 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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