Nico Inberg

Long/short equity, growth, commodities
Nico Inberg
Long/short equity, growth, commodities
Contributor since: 2013
Hi Anand,
It's of course hard to predict, but fundamentals are strong for palladium and platinum. Strong demand could be offset by lower overall metal prices and easing tensions between Russia and the Western world.
For the first time since its inception, high-frequency trading, the bogey machine of the markets, is in retreat. According to estimates from Rosenblatt Securities, as much as two-thirds of all stock trades in the U.S. from 2008 to 2011 were executed by high-frequency firms; today it’s about half. In 2009, high-frequency traders moved about 3.25 billion shares a day. In 2012, it was 1.6 billion a day. Speed traders aren’t just trading fewer shares, they’re making less money on each trade. Average profits have fallen from about a tenth of a penny per share to a twentieth of a penny.
What i meant by that, is that although people feel we are at a top at the moment, we're only 25% higher than 15 years ago. So maybe the stock market is not as high as we think it is.
Wasn't Ukraine a black swan? Or the fiscal cliff? Remember anyone? Greece? The Euro?
To me it looks like a lot of people are just buying ETF's with quality stocks, which keeps the markets up. When buying on a regular basis, with a long term view, a downturn might be even welcome every now and then.
By the way, a lot of algo's are out of the market since the volatility is so depressed the last two years.
You're right about that. But Ms Yellen is not the only one sitting behind the wheel. Draghi, the Japanese and even the Chinese are willing to inflate the monetary system as well.
What do you think will happen when Italy, Spain, France and even the US will be forced to pay 4- 6 % on their bonds, instead of the current rates? Let alone the too-big-to-fail banks in the western world, who get their funding at extremely low costs.
That's why, my guess is that low interest rates are here to stay.
I am not saying it is a great time to buy stocks. On the contrary, they are quite expensive. But they are expensive for a reason. When that reason (low interest rates) disappears, things can change.
What is a top? Looking back, the S&P has risen 25% over the last 14 years. With annual dividends of 2-3% and decent profit margins for the, QUALITY stocks, there is no reason to sell them right now.
And 'a price earnings ratio of 15 to 16 for healthy, cash rich, multinational companies' is something different than P/E's of 100 and more for the Tesla's and Twitter's of this world.
Thanks for your comments, SimpleData.
As you probably know, no text on the internet should be taken literally.
My point is that the policy of the central banks, together with meager economic growth will benefit the quality stocks. Until interest rates are rising, i see no downturn in this stock market.
Banks and governments will try and stretch the low interest rate period for as long as they can.
I'm looking into it, I will come with an update shortly
Investors fear that the Waterberg project will be worth much more than the company is aware. It might therefore be wise to first complete exploration before letting potential buyers in.
I don't think this has to take more than 3 to 6 months
Considering the world as old as a billion years, the Western world is pretty late with changes too...
a thousand years go by faster than you think...
According to my information, in Russia there is a huge surplus of females. I suggest the Chinese go find themselves a woman overthere, it is not too far from home.
Not even property and index trackers, rumour has it that the next thing to invest in for the BOJ is the shares themselves.
Dear Anand,
PAL is in the hands of Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) They gave PAL a 15% loan with assets in the ground as mortgage. This means any one else who would consider taking over PAL would first have to pay off BAM. I do not see this happening in the current environment. More likely is that PAL is running out of money in time and again has to ask BAM for an additional loan. What will happen then? That is unclear yet, but so far BAM is holding the key to PAL's future.
I was kind of hoping Stillwater would pick up PAL but they are busy right now getting rid of their foreign investments first. The presence of BAM did not make things easier for a potential take-over
Dear Mboeniger,
My apologies for being not clear on this subject. Trackers, or ETF's, are low-cost investment tools which follow a certain index, commodity or sector. For example, if you invest in the 250 leading companies worldwide, you don't have to worry about buying the right stock or whether you're in the wrong sector or geographic area, because you've got everything covered. It is wellknown that 80% of fund managers are not able to achieve a higher yield than the benchmark, e.g. the overall stock indexes.
Examples of trackers, or ETF's with worldwide exposure:
Think Global Equity (250 leading shares worldwide) ;ISIN NL0009690221 ;
iShares MSCI World UCITS ETF (Inc) (IWRD) ISINIE00B0M62Q58
In most European countries fracking is prohibited. But the American oil industry did already get approval and will not rest before they get all the oil out of the ground
The oil revolution in the US could reduce the deficit in the coming years. If much of the oil dollars stay in the US instead of being transferred to the arab countries, and the US becomes a net exporter of oil, things could change for the better.
Earnings might be a little shy of expectations the coming quarters but that doesn't change the circumstances the Fed has created. In fact, it is even more reason for the Fed to keep rates low, because companies are still holding back in hiring extra workers.
considering the movement in the stock there could be something going on. I'll check it out later today
thanks, it worked
thanks DF, I've only found the PDF-file on their website.
Hello Johnny,
Although Nairobi is further from Johannesburg than Los Angeles is from Chicago, you have a clear point when it comes to the labor unrest in South-Africa. The government is far from stable but let's not forget that the past five years your money in the western world could have been confiscated too, banks suddenly nationalized etc.
I for myself think that the proposition of PLG is quite unique but of course it remains to be seen whether they will be able to get production started in 2015. For now, the share price of PLG is not reflecting my opinion, although they have managed to issue new shares earlier this year. I guess we need to wait and see what progress they can make the coming months/years
It is my understanding that the Waterberg project is about to go into production somewhere in 2015. Regarding the cost of mining, they expect an average price of $655 , which is mentioned in their latest update. Of course these are only assumptions and they figured that out because of similarity with other projects in the area.
There is a lot of buzz around the SA project but none of it is yet materialized. But it adds up to my view that PGM is my favorite stock in the sector.
As for not completing the $260 million loan, the reason the company gives is that they have not yet completed the hedging agreement. At the current price, CEO Michael Jones said he is not very eager to hedge palladium. And due to the money raised through the share issue, he is in no hurry to do so. Sounds like the man is quite confident about the price development of the beloved material.
My restraint regarding PAL is that I fear they will run out of money before they can start mining underground via the new shaft. Because of the fact that the underground assets have already been mortgaged to BAM, it will be hard for PAL to raise new money from any other than BAM again. The terms won't be any easier then, is my guess.
On the other hand, if mining succeeds in time, things can improve radically. But that's why I said, I first would like to see the shaft in progress.
Now on PLG: It is my favorite because of the fact that they have enough cash on their balance sheet to at least stay in business for another three to four years. I am a little worried about the $260 million loan, which has still not been released.
Regarding the labor unrest, some say that is good for the commodity prices. I do not share that view since I consider that unethical.
Every man killed is one too many of course. But we have to bear in mind that things in South Africa run different than here in Europe or in North-America.
I am not exactly aware of the current situation but I have confidence in the company's ability to keep the operations afloat.
Anyway, thanks for your extensive comment, I hope readers ( I sure did) can use it for making up their own minds
haven't you read the part: the biggest risk?
thanks D, I'll look into it
Thanks Kellie I appreciate it. About the word terrorists, you never know where an internet discussion is gonna end....
Hi CT,
thanks for the complement. It is 7 indeed
Hi enviro112,
Now the price of gold is going down, people talk about 'paper manipulators'. Do not forget that the same "paper manipulators' were responsible for the huge surge in gold from $700 to $1900.
Hence, the real question is: were will gold be once most of the "manipulators" are gone?