Comments on Nico's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/nico/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/95024-has-the-economy-killed-the-health-food-craze?source=feed#comment-403957 403957 Thu, 26 Feb 2009 00:50:13 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95024-has-the-economy-killed-the-health-food-craze?source=feed#comment-288604 288604 Thu, 23 Oct 2008 10:04:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94576-need-for-student-loans-should-boost-first-marblehead-stock?source=feed#comment-265497 265497 Fri, 26 Sep 2008 00:24:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95024-has-the-economy-killed-the-health-food-craze?source=feed#comment-263787 263787 Wed, 24 Sep 2008 13:48:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-260142 260142 Sat, 20 Sep 2008 14:17:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-259672 259672 Fri, 19 Sep 2008 20:41:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-257301 257301 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 16:24:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-257196 257196 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 14:03:49 -0400
Also, I would like to complain about what happened to the ESPN channel. I used to get 'Around the Horn' and PTI on my way home from work, and now they are gone. Hanks Place turned into WIllies Place and now that sucks.

All this makes me want to move closer to work, just to stay off the road.
The only saving grace, maybe, is hearing Public Enemy on that sunny Sunday afternoon that I just can't stand another freakin' minute of the
stupid-burbs where I live.

Conclusion : The service is not worth the fees, and does not live up to the mammoth effort spent to provide it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256632 256632 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:44:54 -0400
Forget it. Not now. Its been oversold for a month now. It was oversold the day it dropped from 2.30 to 1.60. Its been oversold since, lol.
Spec stocks dont trade well using technicals. Hard to use its history, because the fundamentals of the stock change too quickly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256630 256630 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:41:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256627 256627 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:37:37 -0400 I was watching level 2 today, but not when that jump happened. I might be to avoid buy triggers. Not sure. It could have been a natural market fuction, or it might be like you said, they pulled bids. It means they think at close, those might no longer be valid. Maybe they jumped the gun to begin new shorts at that position, giving up ground, as in an atrition battle in war.
As for waiting, no I dont think thats why Mel is waiting. I think he has the deal, and knows exactly what he is doing. If that satellite is unnecessary, then kudos for finding that out. They that further proves my theory of Mel being in on the manipulation. Another cost burden to worry investors with, to help the buyins drive the price down, and you out of your shares. He knows they are getting the refianancing, or hes purposefully trying to tank the stock, bankrupt the company, and sell it off on the cheap, or lose everything. The latter is not my thinking, I will take the former. Market action today should be thrown out due to heavy manipulation and speculation on the FED decision.
But you see all the terrible news stories, the AP ran a false message, saying shares plummetted, but forgot to mention that they recovered, and had gains. The story came out at 7:30 pm, so there is no excuss. That further proves manipulation, do you really think its a coincidence all these stories after days of nothing are random? Why do they care so much? OMG, you find more negative about Sirius than you did about Fannie and Freddie leading up to their bankrupcies. Which further proves my theory of manipulation, because thats how the markets work. Its a magic show, dont look over here, look over here.
Now they are driving the stock down, we know this. That is banked information.
Now why?
1. To get you out of your shares and the big money in. Most probable senario viewing all the facts. But the most unlikely if you believe that the world is full of pricks out to get your money. Much easier for Sirius to screw current stockholders than pay for the debt any other way. It would have to be a matter of pride, morality, and fair play for this one to work. We basically have to trust Mel. Is he out for the stockholders first, the company, or himself?
2. To bankrupt the company, and sell it off on a low bid offer, to a third party buyer who can pay off the debt, and promises to keep old management, and offer them shares in their company(Comcast, Microsoft, whoever)
3. To go private on the cheap, and screw you out of the future earning, shutting you up for 2 dollars a share, which you will feel great about since the stock was at .68 cents. Its all about lowered expectations with this senario. The high anaylist guidance does not support this theory, but more of the #2 theory.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256628 256628 Wed, 17 Sep 2008 01:37:37 -0400 I was watching level 2 today, but not when that jump happened. I might be to avoid buy triggers. Not sure. It could have been a natural market fuction, or it might be like you said, they pulled bids. It means they think at close, those might no longer be valid. Maybe they jumped the gun to begin new shorts at that position, giving up ground, as in an atrition battle in war.
As for waiting, no I dont think thats why Mel is waiting. I think he has the deal, and knows exactly what he is doing. If that satellite is unnecessary, then kudos for finding that out. They that further proves my theory of Mel being in on the manipulation. Another cost burden to worry investors with, to help the buyins drive the price down, and you out of your shares. He knows they are getting the refianancing, or hes purposefully trying to tank the stock, bankrupt the company, and sell it off on the cheap, or lose everything. The latter is not my thinking, I will take the former. Market action today should be thrown out due to heavy manipulation and speculation on the FED decision.
But you see all the terrible news stories, the AP ran a false message, saying shares plummetted, but forgot to mention that they recovered, and had gains. The story came out at 7:30 pm, so there is no excuss. That further proves manipulation, do you really think its a coincidence all these stories after days of nothing are random? Why do they care so much? OMG, you find more negative about Sirius than you did about Fannie and Freddie leading up to their bankrupcies. Which further proves my theory of manipulation, because thats how the markets work. Its a magic show, dont look over here, look over here.
Now they are driving the stock down, we know this. That is banked information.
Now why?
1. To get you out of your shares and the big money in. Most probable senario viewing all the facts. But the most unlikely if you believe that the world is full of pricks out to get your money. Much easier for Sirius to screw current stockholders than pay for the debt any other way. It would have to be a matter of pride, morality, and fair play for this one to work. We basically have to trust Mel. Is he out for the stockholders first, the company, or himself?
2. To bankrupt the company, and sell it off on a low bid offer, to a third party buyer who can pay off the debt, and promises to keep old management, and offer them shares in their company(Comcast, Microsoft, whoever)
3. To go private on the cheap, and screw you out of the future earning, shutting you up for 2 dollars a share, which you will feel great about since the stock was at .68 cents. Its all about lowered expectations with this senario. The high anaylist guidance does not support this theory, but more of the #2 theory.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256520 256520 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 23:02:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94576-need-for-student-loans-should-boost-first-marblehead-stock?source=feed#comment-256514 256514 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:56:15 -0400
...or maybe you are saying they can make a living from administrative and other business. That was a brisk $1.9 million last Q

...but there is always the imminent return of the asset backed securities market and the company's return to their most profitable line of business-collecting up front fees for facilitating securitizations to bring FMD back.

Actually it isn't exactly clear from the analysis where FMD is going to make money--something that has puzzled me since its collapse. Would appreciate any insight--it has me stumped. I would like to find a reason to buy at these prices.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256508 256508 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:52:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256498 256498 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:36:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256397 256397 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 20:30:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256361 256361 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:28:27 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256353 256353 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 19:12:19 -0400
Ok. So now we see SIRI is DOWN .03 (from yesterday's close) @ .82 in the after hours (bid/ask .82/.83). If anyone saw what happened today @ 3:58-9P (one minute before the close, jacking from .76 to .88 in one tick) you just saw how fast SIRI will take off WHEN (not if) the new financing gets done (and which will now happen even sooner than Mel might have even thought due to the swing below $1). This is not '02, where they had the luxury of taking their time. They now have people to answer to big time--among others, can you say Howard Stern and his 34M shares he got as part of his $500M deal? He and his agent have lost a ton of cash and are not happy. Howard's not quite everything the company is, but he put them on the map and keeps them there. But today's EOD action shows how fast the MM's will raise their bids on positive news. Believe it, they are scared shitless to be down at this level, knowing how wound up things are to the downside--yet they will keep pounding it lower...unti they have a reason not to. Today may well have just been the bottom but maybe not since they closed up. I think short of the "the big news" they might still be able to close in the .70's (dipping again into the .60's intraday)--but we're close. My guess is that there must have been a rumor right at the end today and it was run for the hills--quickly exposing the higher priced MM's--thus the quick jump. After the rumor is exposed as untrue, it's right back down. Whenever SIRI announces the refi news-after the 4PM close or in premarket, this stock is going to scream it's going up so fast, as all the MM's scramble to get out of the way--as they keep trying to outraise the other. If you've ever watched that happen, it's a beautiful thing.

A current tchnical:

************
RSI

According to the RSI which is currently at 26.09%, below the critical value of 30, SIRI is oversold. This means that there has been significant recent downward momentum that is not sustainable. Although the stock may not begin to rally, selling pressure can not continue at this level.
***********

A pretty good article from today. The takeaway from this NON-HOLDING gent is all of the upside. He includes the few downsides as due diligence, but his bent on the prognosis of the company is actually positive. For all the reasons he's listed, no way SIRI is going anywhere but up once the cloud is lifted. Hang in there longs...

**********
A Sirius Gamble (SIRI)
September 16, 2008 | By Ben McClure

While Sirius XM Radio (Nasdaq:SIRI) is worth a look, it’s not for the faint of heart. The satellite digital radio broadcaster's stock has the potential to at least double in value in the next 12 months, yet the risk of it disappearing off the radar screen altogether is equally high. Sirius XM is out-and-out gambling and is only for those with nerves of steel.

Sirius XM shareholders are probably feeling like one of the company’s satellites has crashed on their heads. Since Sirius and XM completed their merger at the end of July, the stock has plunged more than 70% and is now trading for about 70 cents. Back in December, the stock was $3.75.

You can’t blame investors for cutting and running. Sirius XM is sitting atop scary levels of debt. The merged company now has more than $3.4 billion in debt, with more than $1 billion of it coming due next year, including $300 million in convertible senior notes due as early as February. Running cash flow negative, Sirius XM won’t have enough cash to pay off the debt on its own steam. (Learn about debt ratios and how to use them to assess a company's financial health in Debt Reckoning.)

In the midst of a full-blown crisis affecting lending markets, getting some of that debt refinanced before February will be no easy feat for Triple C-rated Sirius XM. Without a debt repayment or a refinancing, Sirius XM shareholders could see the value of their shares descend deeper, possibly to zero. Yikes.

So, think of an investment in Sirius XM as a bet that the company can pull off a financing deal. The risk of failure is high, but there are reasons to think the company will make it through the next year.

For one, it’s hard to imagine Sirius XM’s creditors pulling the plug on the company without too much reluctance. Lenders recognize that the company, while cash-strapped, is not failing. They know that if its looming debt obligations are resolved, Sirius XM will be a self-sustaining business.

The company is increasing revenue while quickly decreasing costs. Pro-forma revenue should come in at roughly $2.4 billion this year and $2.7 billion next year. With synergies from the merger of Sirius and XM tallying up to more than $425 million per year, Sirius XM management projects EBITDA to move from a $350 million loss this year to a $300 million gain in 2009. A white knight that steps in will get a piece of a going concern with an encouraging cash flow outlook.

Sirius XM could also do a deal with an industry partner looking to take advantage of its large and growing subscriber base. The newly merged Sirius XM is expected to close out the year with 19.5 million satellite radio subscribers. Its target for next year is 21.5 million. To put that number into perspective, the company's subscriber numbers are not far behind those of cable giant Comcast (Nasdaq:CMCSA), which has 24.6 million subscribers. Potential partners that come to mind are Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL), Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) and satellite TV operators such as DirecTV (NYSE:DTV) and Dish Network (Nasdaq:DISH).

At the same time, while it would be a tough sell in the current credit environment, going private may be another option for Sirius XM. The prospect of sustainable free cash flow could be a draw for adventurous private equity and leveraged buyout investors. (For more on this topic, read Private Equity A Trendsetter For Stocks.)

Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin certainly has the wherewithal to clinch a financing deal. Karamazin is arguably one of the top media executives of the last few decades, having sat at the top management positions at both CBS (NYSE:CBS) and Viacom (NYSE:VIA).

The upside on a successful deal may be well worth rolling the dice on Sirius XM. If Karmazin can make things happen, the share price will almost certainly head higher. According to various Wall Street analysts, Sirius XM could be worth anywhere between $2 and $5 per share.

Unless it gets its act together, Sirius XM runs the risk of going broke. Equally, a resolution of its debt obligations will restore confidence in the stock. Blue sky and speculative - that's the gamble.
By Ben McClure

Ben McClure is director of McClure & Co., an independent research consultancy. Before founding McClure & Co., Ben was a highly-rated European equities analyst at city of London-based Old Mutual Securities. He also spent several years as a business/technology journalist at the Economist Group. Mr. McClure graduated from the University of Alberta School of Business with an MBA.
At the time of writing Ben McClure did not own shares in any of the companies mentioned in this article.
************]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256322 256322 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:02:51 -0400
"I bought as many shares as I could as the price was dropping and have no regrets what so ever. As everyone knows, the reality of the market is that rumor and irrational emotional reactions toss it about. This forces panic selling among the long holders with the short sellers and options traders cleaning up the spoils. This is just a fact with many getting caught up in the mindset of doom and remorse. Now for some personal speculation. As far as coming up with their $300 mil. and $400 mil. payments, there is no financial institution on the planet that would let this one slide into default. Especially not in the current climate. Think about it. Bankruptcy means collecting ultimately only pennies on the dollar and being trapped in years of litigation, which would throw their investment into the same place where many now hold their heads. This also would have a ripple effect across the board for them causing further reaching damage. This approach is really not an intellegent option. Mel K. is playing his cards exactly the way he should with his conservative figures and hazy confidence regarding the February payment deadline. He is leveraging Sirius’ position into a 6-month window to pressure the financiers to ultimately negotiate that “sweeter deal” Sirius should inevitably acquire. By making his announcement, he has left investors scratching their heads, with many of you playing “follow the looser” off a cliff and pulling the price down with you. With just a few words, he has effectively put pressure on the lending institution to scramble quickly to the negotiating table before the stock value and public confidence of the company that they have a huge sum of money invested in plummets even further down the tubes toward oblivion. This would make it more difficult to realize a payback of their loan investment at all. I would still look for the price to bottom out around .67 within the next few weeks before we see any steady upturn. For me, I am going to patiently hold on to my 300,000 shares and ride this one out till the end!"

Well, it bottomed out today at .68 and I bought 15500 more shares. I may ultimately be wrong, but so far all my instincts seem to be pointing in the right direction. Now for another crystal ball prediction. Siri will be trading consistently on the north side of $1 by Friday of next week. I also think that it is probable that there will be a huge surge once the refinancing terms are in place. This may take a few months, but in the meantime it seems that the shorts are exhausting themselves and the stock price will be controlled by the long holders, easing the price up to the $2 mark before the refinancing news is released. This could mean that Siri could be trading closer to the $3 mark by the years end. Just expect massive upticks like todays to repeat themselves over the next few weeks (as well as some down turns) And for the love of God... HOLD YOUR SHARES LONG LONG LONG AND DON'T PANIC!!! You know panic is what drives the market down! If you are fearful of losing your hard earned cash you should never invest in the market in the first place! After all, the stock market has become a casino with the only difference being your money does not vaporize until you cash out. My exact share count as of today is 322,554. I have another buy order in for tomorrow for 16000 more shares at .77. That will put my average at 1.29 per share and I am holding with that. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256321 256321 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 18:01:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256314 256314 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 17:58:35 -0400
Today I heard about the new Slacker, the same old Pandora royalty problem , Apple - Ipod connections using software fixes and I don’t really care. The reality is that this company is in your new car right now and half of the installed equipment is not even turned on. Its just waiting to generate revenue.

Programming of the company can be on the internet anywhere in the world right now with your subscription. It already has consistent programming nationwide, soon to be the “best of” content anywhere with a lot more than music, and the stock price definitely sucks right now.

I have been saying along with those here, that the debt, unlike some people have said, matters. The next 60 days will determine the companies future in the investment world and to us retail investors.

If they don’t secure financing for the Feb, 09 debt, all confidence will be gone. With that secured, pushing the May 09, currently Performing Credit facility should be easy enough.

In the financial “Killing Fields”, which have now and always will be Wall Street towards companies not able to pay for their debt, this company will survive or fail.

With what will easily be over $3 billion in revenue, there isn’t any way that they won’t secure financing. Banks, Investment Banks, and Private Equity, make money by lending money to those companies that can pay them back at a premium. There aren’t many options for them either.

This business model will be funded, period. There aren’t many opportunities for those lending money to improve their balance sheet right now. This company pays its bills, now and in the future. I am long Sirius and will be until its over.

So worrying about whether you paid .65 or .75 or .85 cents for this stock is prudent, but irrelevant. Bankruptcy in this economy and the general market is real to a lot of companies whose business model has just collapsed. That is not what is going on with this company. JMHO.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256306 256306 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 17:49:20 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256259 256259 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:59:44 -0400
Do you have LVL 2? If so, were you viewing at the close? How many MM's pulled bids at 3:58 when the price went from .77 to .88 in one up tick? I saw it in real-time but don't have L2 to see the MM's.

This my investor friends, is how the manipulation happens...hang in there longs...what you are seeing right now is a classic Wall Street play. SIRI's price today has NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on either the health or viability of the company. Don't jump!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256245 256245 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:46:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256231 256231 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:25:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256229 256229 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:23:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256221 256221 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:06:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256215 256215 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 16:03:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/95556-is-sirius-xm-headed-the-way-of-old-radio?source=feed#comment-256204 256204 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 15:51:49 -0400