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Night Heron

 
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  • Loral's Next (And Last) Chapter [View article]
    You make a really strong case, Chris. My only question is this: if the valuation of LORL is as cut and dried as your analysis suggests, why are the parties taking such a long time to reach a deal? Why don't they just agree on $90 or whatever and get it over with? Do they have a different valuation than you? Do they have an incentive to drag things out?
    Aug 13 12:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Portugal Telecom Mispricing Went And Other Musings [View article]
    This was clearly an excellent call. But let's go back a step. How did you know that the Portuguese market would react so favorably to the CEO's resignation?
    Aug 11 11:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VOXX International - Explosive Upside Potential Based On Exciting New Products [View article]
    Very interesting thesis. I see in the press release that VOXX has only invested $3 million in EyeSee360 (360Fly), and the same amount in EyeLock (myris). These seem like rather small investments. Are you more impressed by VOXX's potential profits from the investments in EyeSee360 and EyeLock or by VOXX's potential profits from partnering in product sales of 360Fly and myris?
    Jul 31 06:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AudioEye Expects 1,400% Growth With New Government Mandates Requiring More Accessible Technology For Disabled Persons [View article]
    Can you say more about valuation? Your $5 price target implies a market cap of $275 million, which is more than 30 times the expected 2014 revenue of $8 million.

    Even the current price is 6 times expected 2014 revenue, and 3 times January's price. Is the current price too low? Is this really an undiscovered stock?
    Jul 24 02:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynk Technology Is The New Scheme In Town [View article]
    I'm confused, BuyersStrikeWP. Are you saying IB is willfully participating in the CYNX scam? Why would a large broker take that kind of risk?
    Jul 11 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China XD Plastics: When The Numbers Don't Add Up, There's Over 80% Downside [View article]
    What's the vertical axis on the DSO chart? Should it be some number of days, instead of a number in the tens of millions?
    Jul 11 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cynk Technology Is The New Scheme In Town [View article]
    The one thing I don't understand is how the insiders would control the short rebate? Isn't the short rebate set by the brokers?
    Jul 11 08:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings Considerable Capital Appreciation And Yield Opportunity In New, Underfollowed Reinsurer [View article]
    Very thorough and convincing analysis. I only have one question: if BCRH is worth $44, why was the Montpelier willing to do an IPO at $20?
    Jul 9 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP, LLC's Lot Portfolio Is Worth 84% Of Its Enterprise Value, Giving Shareholders Homebuilding Exposure At A Discount [View article]
    Why do you say 2008 purchases are undervalued? Your Trulia charts show higher prices in 2008 than now.
    Jul 4 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: The Dividend Will Eventually Be At Risk [View article]
    What's a fair price for PM?
    Jun 28 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Chrome Arbitrage And $300 On The Sidewalk [View instapost]
    Very interesting, thanks. I just want to clarify the nature of you met. When you say "one could bet on each and every one of the other horses (and 2x bets on the four most likely challengers)," is that what you did? Were your bets win, place, or show?
    Jun 25 10:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Grossly Overvalued - 75% Downside, 90% Of Wells May Be Losing Money [View article]
    The other ethical issue raised by the poster is that the article was made available to PRO subscribers before the rest of us. I'm not wild about that, either, but it's how the PRO service works; that's what the PRO subscribers are paying for.
    Jun 23 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Grossly Overvalued - 75% Downside, 90% Of Wells May Be Losing Money [View article]
    I can understand the emotional reaction, too. But think about it this way. DOM has an intrinsic value of about $3, and if you held to termination that was all you're ever going to get. When the shares were priced at $11, as the author wrote, "Those holding long positions will make more money--significantly more money--selling shares today than if they hold them for the long term." So the author was alerting longs (as well as shorts) to an opportunity. And actually the opportunity still exists: even at $6, it still makes more sense to sell than to hold. So longs who read the article and respond appropriately are actually better off than if the article had never been written. And longs who choose to hold despite the article are in the same situation that they would have been in otherwise.
    Jun 23 09:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Grossly Overvalued - 75% Downside, 90% Of Wells May Be Losing Money [View article]
    Just a comment on threads suggesting that this article hurt long-term income investors. I don't think it did, really. Over the next 4-5 years, DOM will still produce the same distributions that it was going to produce if the article had never been written. If you were a long-term investor who planned to hold DOM for the next 4-5 years (after which it will likely terminate), this article hasn't affected your current or future income. This article just gives you a better idea what your future income is likely to be.

    All that the article changed is the current market price, and that only matters if you were planning to sell very soon. If you were planning to hold for 4-5 years, your situation hasn't changed.
    Jun 22 10:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Grossly Overvalued - 75% Downside, 90% Of Wells May Be Losing Money [View article]
    Great digging.
    Your options must have turned a tidy profit, possibly with more to come.
    Jun 19 12:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
321 Comments
121 Likes