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Nikhil Hingorani

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  • Netflix Bulls Don't Get It [View article]
    Great article. Really brings home the fact that fundamentally this company is rife with issues. My only concern is that there seems to be a lot of insider buying, specifically on 12/04. And the prices that the insiders paid (~$78/share) makes me wonder if they know something we don't. Any thoughts Bill?
    Dec 10, 2012. 10:07 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Starbucks Is Brewing For Investors [View article]
    Also a believer in Starbucks being a good(not great) pick for 2013. It will be a big hit amongst the masses. And for this reason may be a good pick up. However, I do have to argue one point you've made. I don't think Teavana will be a success in Asia, neither China nor India. People are too grassroots about their Tea in those countries and will scoff at Starbucks/Teavana's attempt to infiltrate the market. Coffee is a relatively alien beverage in that sense and would be more successful. With huge costs associated with international expansion, if I see news about Starbucks trying to push its Tea in China/India I may just close out my current position in SBUX (bought in at 45).
    Dec 10, 2012. 04:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Smoke And Mirrors Are Fading [View article]
    This is a classic case of sentiment winning over fundamentals. The average investor doesn't look left nor right. They just jump in because that's what everyone else is doing. AMZN will work out for the bears someday. But like you said Bill there's no knowing when. Better to stay away from the crowd favorites than to trust any sort of analysis. Thanks for the great article.
    Dec 19, 2012. 04:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SodaStream Tie-Up Could Make Sense - And Cents [View article]
    @heliskiier Can you point me to these patents? Seems most of their patents expired a while ago. "As our patent portfolio is limited, and as certain of the more basic patents on our technology have expired" (from 20-F)

    Jun 11, 2013. 02:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Technical Trap [View article]
    Agreed that the appointment of the new CEO is a good sign, but look at the decreasing quarter over quarter margins. Now with the patents expiring, Kroeger and Safeway are making their own K-cups at lower prices which means GMCR will have to lower prices further to stay competitive. In fact, WalMart was the one that boasted about how they don't need to pay royalties on K-cups anymore. Seems troubling that margins continue to drop.

    Also, the shenanigans they keep pulling will eventually catch up with them. Short term there seems to be positive sentiment which continues to take their prices up. But the short interest is still at 43% (I'm guessing from institutions). Couple that with the continuously increasing competition in their core businesses and I think it is only a matter of a 1 or 2 quarters before we see the price fall significantly.
    Dec 8, 2012. 12:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Technical Trap [View article]
    HZLIU... In general I would suggest staying away from stocks that are traded on such high volumes. Timing inflection points is a game of chance. If you are able to find value (or lack of value) in this stock based on the fundamentals then find a good entry point, get in and hold to it. Otherwise I think your safest bet is hold onto your cash.
    Dec 10, 2012. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Technical Trap [View article]
    Interesting. I think in general there is a very strong divide on GMCR. But it seems like the institutions are in general short while the retail investors are in general long. I think the retailers can also absorb a short run increase if they are sure that in the long run this is good short, which retail investors wouldn't be able to do.
    Also, the reason short sellers are convinced the company will fall in price is because of the various observations outlined in this article and the other two I linked in my article. Take a look at them. I think the case is pretty strong to go short. If you are eager to take a short position but are concerned about the downside risk then make use of options to protect yourself.
    Dec 10, 2012. 01:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters: Technical Trap [View article]
    Hahaha. That's a great observation HZLIU. I would say that it isn't a bad idea to keep half your position long because it seems like the retail investors are still pushing the price up, but you may want to put in some protective stops in case some sort of bad news causes them to flee and we see a sudden drop in the price. Personally, I am staying away from their stock completely. It feels too much like speculation.
    Dec 9, 2012. 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment