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Nikhil Nichani  

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  • A Buy-Write 'Dogs Of The Dow' Strategy For 2012 [View article]
    I like this strategy, but as mentioned it should be accompanied by selling puts as well. If you sold a $17.50 strike put today with same maturity, the stock would have to fall below $21.20 ($20.36 if you factor in the 2 year dividends) (.86 was the put price) before you experience any losses. And based on your expectations for Intel, I would feel very comfortable to buy an additional 100 shares at $17.50, so it wouldn't be a bad strategy..

    Also what you could do then is short the stock at $21.20 to buffer off the losses between $21.20 and $17.50, therefore you really don't experience any losses until the stock falls below $17.50. And if you short it at $21.20 it goes back up, close out at $24.25 and you are net zero. (EDIT: or just sell it at $21.20 and then buy it back at $24.25, which would result in the same thing)
    Jan 3, 2012. 05:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Your mREITs Immediately [View article]
    The problem is not your investment opinion, the problem is people going crazy just because someone has a different view then them. As long as your ideas work, thats all that matters. I've learned from my time at Seeking Alpha that people mostly post negative comments because they disagree with the opinion, not because it doesn't make sense
    Jul 25, 2011. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Micron Shares Pricing in Growth? A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis [View article]
    May 6, 2011. 01:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Sell Off Hitting Historic Levels [View article]
    Do you guys have a table showing what Silver did after such a historic sell off?
    May 5, 2011. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Micron Shares Pricing in Growth? A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis [View article]
    Fair enough. But in calculating DCF models, you are required to make a lot of assumptions that are arrived at through thorough research of the company and the industry. So yes you can include consolidation of industry and implementation of SSD drives to become the standard in the industry into a DCF model. It is not a guessing game and works just as well as your assumptions are. Stocks move on expectation of cash flows, and your cash flow expectations are what move the stock price in a DCF model. When calculating assumptions, I'm not just giving it an arbitrary number. I can obviously take into account the effects of all the scenarios mentioned when I predict growth rates. A good DCF valuation requires all the implementations and research you just mentioned.

    But as you said, quantitative analysis is not enough. Qualitative research should also be done. The purpose of this article was to conduct the quantitative research.

    Now there are different approaches to the DCF valuation such as how you calculate WACC and if you use perpetuity growth or exit multiple etc. and all of that depends on what you feel is right for your company, but to say DCF has a high failure rate is very naive. As I said, your valuation is only as good and accurate as your assumptions and your assumptions are based off thorough industry and company research.
    May 4, 2011. 01:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Micron Shares Pricing in Growth? A Discounted Cash Flow Analysis [View article]
    Uhm you would have to read 10ks and look at prices of DRAM and NAND to create a DCF model. What is your approach to valuation if you don't consider cash flows to capital providers?
    May 3, 2011. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EUO: An Opportunity to Short the Euro [View article]
    Dividend Growth,

    Can you please provide me the source of that phenomenon?
    Apr 9, 2011. 08:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's Time to Short the Yen [View article]
    Apr 5, 2011. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ireland and ECB Put Euro Into Spotlight [View article]
    I personally have not red it yet, but I've heard When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson is a great read. It is on the German hyperinflation.
    Mar 2, 2011. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking to Get Into Equities Now? I'd Think Twice [View article]
    I understand, but here is my take at it. Basically there are a lot of negative catalysts in the market right now just as there were in spring last year. Although fundamentally companies were improving, the macro economic picture was deteriorating, which gave the market a significant correction. Once all that cleared out, we started to rally again because as it was in march last year, fundamentals were still strong but fundamentals control long term movements, not short term movements where any kind of catastrophic event - or the threat of - can scare the market and cause a significant pull back. So I feel as if we are in or approaching the same macroeconomic mind frame we were in last spring where the slightest hint of trouble from anywhere in the world could knock off a 1000 points or more on the dow...and this is my outlook for the short term to extremely short medium term.

    No matter what your time frame is, I believe come late April-early May, you can get a much better price for whatever you want to invest in
    Feb 17, 2011. 12:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Holdings of U.S. Treasuries Surpass China's [View article]
    So with the Fed now funding majority of the Governments operations, how is the Fed any longer a separate entity?
    Feb 6, 2011. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Egypt ETFs Lure Investors in Droves [View article]
    Absolutely absurd. All the people piling into EGPT are in for a rude awakening; when Egyptian markets and banks open, there will be a huge shortage of cash and everyone will run to liquidate.
    Feb 1, 2011. 06:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Companies Facing Upcoming Tipping Points When Reporting Earnings [View article]
    I would be careful with the OPEN short. Although the company is ridiculously valued, its posting some ridiculously high margins. Irrational valuations in the market can continue
    Jan 26, 2011. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Companies Facing Upcoming Tipping Points When Reporting Earnings [View article]
    Why is that so hard to believe?
    Jan 26, 2011. 04:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • David Tepper: 'I Am Cautious but I Am Optimistic' [View article]
    Tepper is about 50% rise late in Micron. But still a good stock IMO. I've been holding it and recommending it since September
    Jan 21, 2011. 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment