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Nikos Theodosopoulos

 
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  • Juniper Has The 'Edge' Over Cisco [View article]
    In addition if you look at the commentary from the last conference call, the company mentions how edge routing is being impacted by traditional/older products. It seems to me that Cisco needs a refresh at the edge and customers to figure out how to compare/deploy their two different core offerings before they can resume solid overall growth in service provider routing
    Feb 1, 2014. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juniper Has The 'Edge' Over Cisco [View article]
    It is fair to say that the ASR has done well in the past but at a declining rate of growth as Juniper has launched the MX2020. I believe what you will see is a further slowing of Cisco's ASR growth in the near term quarters. Lets see what happens when Cisco reports on February 12th.
    Feb 1, 2014. 03:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juniper Has The 'Edge' Over Cisco [View article]
    I find Dell'Oro is an outstanding firm in industry analyst reporting. They cover several of the markets that both Cisco and Juniper compete in (e.g. routing, switching, security etc.). Anyone looking for quality industry reports on such areas should consider Dell'Oro in addition to the ones you mentioned.
    Feb 1, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Juniper Has The 'Edge' Over Cisco [View article]
    I do not have a conviction one way or another on 4Q earnings, but peers like JDSU, JNPR and ERIC have generally performed ok in 4Q. Risks I would be concerned about are ALU has more emerging market exposure than most peers, and it has a history of inconsistent results. Hopefully the new CEO and CFO have lit a fire under the company to be more consistent.
    Jan 31, 2014. 10:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Juniper Has The 'Edge' Over Cisco [View article]
    I view the new CEO as a positive catalyst for the company. He seems to be working diligently in right sizing the company, driving a results driven culture and meeting with customers frequently. On top of that, capital spending in telecom seems to be on a rebound this year. Its not clear longer term how ALU will do, but I am hopeful it will continue to well in 2014.
    Jan 31, 2014. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble 2.0 In Cloud And Social Networking Stocks? [View article]
    I have not done this analysis, but I think to do it properly one has to look at total media based advertising (i.e. on-line, TV, radio, newspaper) and see how on-line has been eating into the total media ad market. One has to look out 5 years and estimate what % of the total ad market will on-line own. The bull case on these stocks is on-line continues to take away from traditional media advertising dollars.
    Jan 30, 2014. 08:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble 2.0 In Cloud And Social Networking Stocks? [View article]
    The Microsoft CEO selection will be important. From what I read in the press, I would not view the selection of the Ericsson CEO as positive for the company. Perhaps the internal candidate Satya Nadella would be the best choice of the ones discussed in the press.
    Jan 21, 2014. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble 2.0 In Cloud And Social Networking Stocks? [View article]
    I think the market is pricing in that Splunk, Workday and FireEye will grow as fast as CRM and VMW did when they were at the same revenue base. That basically means these companies will grow sales from $200M to $1B in about 3 to 3.5 years. CRM and VMW were the exceptions in terms of this growth. For example, VMW was a play on server virtualization which experienced rapid growth and acceptance in the market and they ended up dominating the market. Citrix, however, did not see the same level of adoption and growth in desktop virtualization software. Splunk is currently the main supplier of big software for searching, monitoring and analyzing machine generated big data. With the growth of unstructured data (e.g. social media feeds and data from Internet connected sensors), I think the company will experience similar growth to prior leading disruptive companies. Workday is selling cloud based software for HR and finance management to corporations and so far has shown a resemblance to the growth of Salesforce.com which was disrupted the customer relationship management market by moving it to a SaaS model. FireEye is seeking to move advanced persistent threat security to a cloud based solution. Historically, the comparable companies in the security market sold special purpose appliances. I hope that helps.
    Jan 19, 2014. 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble 2.0 In Cloud And Social Networking Stocks? [View article]
    As I mentioned in a prior reply, my cost basis for these three stocks is much lower and I have continued to move my stop losses higher as the stocks have moved higher. Its fair to say that given the additional appreciation in 2014, I may chose to close the positions in the near future.
    Jan 18, 2014. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble 2.0 In Cloud And Social Networking Stocks? [View article]
    I like Splunk for the longer term but may seek to take profits given high valuation
    Jan 18, 2014. 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: What Happened And What's Next [View article]
    The Internet things will be a long term trend that will dramatically increase the number of entities that are connected to the web (e.g. appliances, sensors in auto, machines, wearables etc…). I don't see this is a factor impacting the stock over the next year or so.
    Nov 25, 2013. 11:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco's Cloudy Wireless Ambitions [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments. Some quick replies below:
    1. The purpose of the article was to evaluate what Cisco's strategy might be when the CEO said in the press Cisco plans to disrupt the wireless infrastructure market. I was not trying to suggest Cisco would be successful or not, but rather what they may developing.
    2. If Cisco is pursuing C-RAN, my guess would be they invested or funded a start up that is working on special processors for such a market that perhaps could run on standard servers or even some derivation of Cisco's UCS offering.
    3. The value of C-RAN to an operator is efficiency of baseband processing as it becomes more centralized, lower energy consumption and less interference among cells. C-RAN has already been identified as a function within the NFV framework, so operators are thinking longer term C-RAN can be implemented via software features on centralized baseband processors.
    Nov 3, 2013. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insieme - Cisco's Likely Strategic Objectives [View article]
    In my article on Cisco on May 17th, I mentioned Cisco is likely to acquire a security company. Now that they acquired Sourcefire in Security and Meraki in Enterprise Mobile, I do not see any glaring holes in their main lines of business. Acquisitions of start-ups are still likely in areas in the are of Mobile Customer Experience and Analytics, but I do not see another large acquisition in 2013 on the order of Sourcefire and NDS. There are articles suggesting Cisco is looking at Blackberry, but I would be surprised Cisco acquired them as they already failed in their consumer efforts in the past and Cisco does not like to buy declining businesses with declining market share. There may be some elements of Blacberry Cisco would look at (e.g. patents), but I doubt they would acquire the entire company.
    Oct 6, 2013. 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insieme - Cisco's Likely Strategic Objectives [View article]
    Yes, Insieme is also targeting Arista. I put Arista in the category of companies mentioned above under "more open switching platforms that offer more robust software operating systems than Cisco has traditionally offered". Cisco is very focused on trying to stall the growth of Arista given its success so far in the data center as a disruptor in the switch market and Insieme is a key part of the attack plan on Arista.
    Oct 4, 2013. 11:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Insieme - Cisco's Likely Strategic Objectives [View article]
    Thanks for the comment. It is definitively early days in the SDN market and predicting the ultimate outcome for Cisco and others is difficult at this time. It will be certainly interesting to watch!
    Oct 4, 2013. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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