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Nitin B. Sharma

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  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    @Shiroitora:

    For SWHC, there are 19M shares short out of 55M outstanding. That represents 35% of the float. To borrow these stocks, one would have to pay through the nose, so in that respect, it might be a blessing. You can always buy puts, although I recommend selling puts, of course :)
    Jan 5 02:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    @Volte-Face Investments:

    Sure, the sky is falling. The market and the stock price seems to vehemently disagree with you (+30% since the short was announced). I can't believe a short thesis has been put into place just based on NICS, while totally disregarding all my past comments about:

    - Solid Company execution
    - Upcoming Inventory build-up at wholesellers in 2014
    - Growing interest in recreational guns
    - Increased marketing by these companies
    - Solid brand name of RGR and SWHC

    Lastly, who shorts a stock in the face of a $100M buyback? When you wrote this article, SWHC still had $85M worth of buyback remaining.

    I appreciate all the discussion, but do note that the gun sales story is not about growth - it is about consistent cashflow, a stable business. Anyways, all the best.
    Jan 5 02:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    Volte-Face Investments says:

    Obama cannot pass new gun control laws...He couldn't do it when his approval was 56% after newton and now his approval rating has collapsed to 44% one of the biggest approval drops in a year on record.

    Seeking Alpha Breaking News current says:

    Government proposes two new gun-control regulations
    Jan 5 2014, 01:54

    The White House has proposed two gun control regulations that the government doesn't need Congress' approval for.
    One measure would clarify who isn't allowed to own a firearm because of mental illness and would provide guidance to states about the information they can share with a federal database that dealers use to check whether a buyer is allowed to purchase a gun.
    However, mental health advocates fear that the regulations could stop those who are unwell from seeking treatment for fear that their illness would be added to federal records.
    The other proposal would eliminate obstacles that could stop states from supplying information to the database.
    Related tickers: RGR, SWHC, CAB
    Jan 5 02:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    December 2013 NICS checks out. Here:

    http://1.usa.gov/1izrQhs

    What a beautiful number. Ex-Newtown, the highest on record - ever!

    Gun sales in US have seen a structural shift.

    Long SWHC.
    Jan 3 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    Wow :) We agree to wait and watch how this story develops over the next few months then.
    Dec 12 06:58 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    QCOM is nothing if not ambitious - they have eaten INTC's lunch in mobile all the way for years now, after having publicly said they would. A server domination would give them another market to tap into. High-end smartphone growth is slowing, and QCOM is looking for growth avenues.

    Plus, think about pricing propositions that QCOM will offer to GOOG. They did the same thing with AAPL in their custom-designed chips fir iPhones.

    Lastly, I suspect GOOG is exploring this along with the likes of QCOM to see how these chips would perform and benefits that would ensue.

    Instead of looking it through just the single lens of denial, the real question is, what could GOOG gain by going this route? It is worth exploring that line of thinking. Thoughts welcome along that line.

    Disclosure: I was a QCOM employee until 2010.
    Dec 12 06:53 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Don't Believe Bloomberg's Google Rumor [View article]
    When a company wants to introduce a new product (like, in this case, in-house ARM-based chips), there are three ways to go about it:

    (1) Do it from scratch
    (2) Acquire someone who already does it
    (3) Partner with an industry leader

    You addressed the first two, but not the third. What is stopping Google from going the third route with the likes of QCOM with whom they already have a strong working relationship through their Android program? That would explain no hires as well.
    Dec 12 06:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Research Report: What Baseball Can Teach Us About NQ Mobile [View article]
    Excellent article.
    Dec 11 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson +5.8% AH; FQ2 report, FQ3 guidance clean out expectations [View news story]
    Long room ahead in terms of valuation. As just noted on the conference call, Mr. Debney, the CEO thinks that the industry is going through a long-term growth phase.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 10 05:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    Hope you saw this VF - no change in revenue guidance until end of this FY year (still 6 more months to go). As I have been sharing for the last few months, the only slowdown would have appeared if their next year sales goes below $600M - as documented in my model on my article:

    http://1.usa.gov/18SIy8m
    Dec 10 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smith & Wesson beats by $0.07, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Fantastic execution.
    Dec 10 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pep Boys -12.4% AH on weaker-than-expected FQ3 [View news story]
    PBY was on my radar last year, but then dropped off. It came back when I heard Mario Gabelli talk about it on CNBC. See this video from November 12. Fast forward to minute 8:00.

    http://cnb.cx/1e1MxS4

    Thank God I didn't listen to him.
    Dec 9 06:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    Just think about this guys. If gun business would not be a cash cow, neither would have Feinberg considered a stalking-horse bid, nor would he have been "unable" to find a buyer.

    They just don't want to sell. It is absolutely clear and has been for a while.
    Dec 9 10:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rackspace tumbles, Amazon and others lower following Google cloud launch [View news story]
    I agree with you. Every day, I notice Amazon bringing something new to the public - Kindle HDX, same-day-delivery, Sunday delivery, more content, Drones, etc. etc. etc.

    They are searching for revenue growth wherever they can find it.

    As I have mentioned in the past, AMZN will suffer immensely when the perfect storm gathers. And that perfect storm would be competitors fighting tooth and nail in every possible way against AMZN's price offerings.

    To declare AWS a "clear" winner at $5B annual revenue and this early in the game is naivete.
    Dec 4 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Civilian Gun Market Has Peaked; Downside Ahead [View article]
    To be honest, I think he is serious about SWHC. He is on record talking about how SWHC has done a good job with price discipline as well as their buybacks. He has also commented on buybacks making perfect sense for a company like SWHC when they trade at 4x LTM EBITDA.

    You make a good point about buying last year, but he didn't know that SWHC would stay at these levels for so long. Who knows what he might have anticipated. One thing I know is that he doesn't want to pay cash or raise debt to acquire - as he stated. Anything other than what the company needs, he likes to return to shareholders. He would rather dilute, but acquire an asset like SWHC, than raise debt and muddy his balance sheet.

    That is the impression that I got listening to him intently.

    Would you have any thoughts regarding the same? Also, any reason why you think SWHC is fairly valued at 4x LTM EBITDA? I can't seem to understand the gulf between these two companies, when it comes to multiples.
    Dec 2 12:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
156 Comments
112 Likes