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How Much Value Can Apple Watch Create?
- Under given economic conditions and market demand, Apple Watch can become a $20 billion franchise for Apple.
- Exquisite product design, combined with companion-based product positioning, is the secret sauce for quickly capturing market share.
- Margin Leverage from Watch will defend margin deterioration in the iPhone, iPad segment.
Apple: Passing The Baton From Financial Engineering To Business Fundamentals
- Expectations of growth in operating income and reinvestment rate will drive the multiple expansion in future for Apple's stock.
- Irrational undervaluation theme has run its course. Circumstances ripe for another run towards overly optimistic expectations.
- Market has started pricing two-sided risks in the stock.
Apple Moving Toward Another Bubble
- Management is using the direction of business fundamentals to move the stock price in the same direction, setting in motion a self-reinforcing process in Apple stock.
- Perceived as offering an asymmetric payoff, any growth catalyst will accelerate this self-reinforcing boom.
- Apple stock is now at fairly-priced levels.
Apple's Low Valuation Combined With Higher Volatility Risk - A Lethal Mix
- My fair value estimate for Apple is $585/share.
- Market will start re-pricing volatility risk in Apple if future products fail to gain momentum.
- Concentrated short volatility bets in Apple are limiting Apple's multiple from expanding, as well.
Apple - Challenging The Multiple Expansion Narrative
- Decomposing the earnings multiple offers insight into how investors value growth.
- The ongoing Capital Return Program at Apple is restricting the earnings multiple from expanding.
- Growth in Operating Income, Reinvestment Rate, and Free Cash Flow should drive multiple expansion.
- Apple - Analyzing Risk Through The Prism Of Volatility
- Apple's Valuation: Thoughts On Price And Value