Seeking Alpha

Nitin Gulati

 
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  • How Much Value Can Apple Watch Create?
    Fri, Sep. 12 AAPL 55 Comments

    Summary

    • Under given economic conditions and market demand, Apple Watch can become a $20 billion franchise for Apple.
    • Exquisite product design, combined with companion-based product positioning, is the secret sauce for quickly capturing market share.
    • Margin Leverage from Watch will defend margin deterioration in the iPhone, iPad segment.
  • Apple: Passing The Baton From Financial Engineering To Business Fundamentals
    Wed, Jun. 4 AAPL 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Expectations of growth in operating income and reinvestment rate will drive the multiple expansion in future for Apple's stock.
    • Irrational undervaluation theme has run its course. Circumstances ripe for another run towards overly optimistic expectations.
    • Market has started pricing two-sided risks in the stock.
  • Apple Moving Toward Another Bubble
    Mon, Apr. 28 AAPL 121 Comments

    Summary

    • Management is using the direction of business fundamentals to move the stock price in the same direction, setting in motion a self-reinforcing process in Apple stock.
    • Perceived as offering an asymmetric payoff, any growth catalyst will accelerate this self-reinforcing boom.
    • Apple stock is now at fairly-priced levels.
  • Apple's Low Valuation Combined With Higher Volatility Risk - A Lethal Mix
    Wed, Mar. 19 AAPL 39 Comments

    Summary

    • My fair value estimate for Apple is $585/share.
    • Market will start re-pricing volatility risk in Apple if future products fail to gain momentum.
    • Concentrated short volatility bets in Apple are limiting Apple's multiple from expanding, as well.
  • Apple - Challenging The Multiple Expansion Narrative
    Tue, Mar. 11 AAPL 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Decomposing the earnings multiple offers insight into how investors value growth.
    • The ongoing Capital Return Program at Apple is restricting the earnings multiple from expanding.
    • Growth in Operating Income, Reinvestment Rate, and Free Cash Flow should drive multiple expansion.
  • Apple - Analyzing Risk Through The Prism Of Volatility
    Sun, Mar. 2 AAPL 24 Comments
  • Apple's Valuation: Thoughts On Price And Value
    Wed, Feb. 26 AAPL 45 Comments
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