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Nitin Gulati  

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  • The Fresh Market's Bull Thesis Is Profoundly Flawed [View article]
    Well the market definitely ascribes TFM to organic food retailing and there are numerous studies indicating that this sector is indeed entering a mature phase. I will be happy to post them here.

    If you don't think TFM is an organic food retailer, than please put some color on what sector it belongs to and what multiple would you ascribe to it.

    I bet multiple will be significantly lower, which is a lot of market participants are afraid of. if they present argument on it. Circularity
    May 25, 2015. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market's Bull Thesis Is Profoundly Flawed [View article]
    As adoption goes mainstream , differentiation, if amy goes away
    May 24, 2015. 10:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market's Bull Thesis Is Profoundly Flawed [View article]
    Well the market places them in this category an if they are a niche business why so high multiple
    May 24, 2015. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tilly's: Greatly Overvalued [View article]
    I have valued TLYS two times in the last 6-8 months. At first during Nov last years when it was trading close to $7 per share. At that time I purely based my estimate from a normalized free cash flow, which suggested earnings power of $11 at least. Seeing TLYS at massive discount to its earnings power I initiated a long position on it. Earlier this year I valued TLYS with all the details. What I noticed was short term profits were a consequence of investments to build e-commerce infrastructure. As these investment begin to phase out , profit will return to their normal level.

    Secondly I noted that TLYS management was trying to right size the store footage and count , which should have created tailwinds for profitability once environment for teen retails turned around. In my opinion, TLYS purely suffered a traffic slow down, but once inside the store, conversion and average ticket was steady.
    I assumed negative comps for the first year and hoped management would rely on store growth to deliver the growth before they begin to rachet down on their plans.

    All went well so far , but I had to revise my estimate from $16.8 to $15 purely based on my estimates for my store count.
    Mar 24, 2015. 07:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble - Short [View article]
    Yeah it doesn't mean investors should love it but merely stating that negative working capital is a reflection of debt/ liquidity problems is not correct either.
    Mar 17, 2015. 08:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble - Short [View article]
    "As is decipherable from the definition, a negative working capital implies that the company is having trouble meeting its short term expenses. " ask any company CEO they would love negative WC. Negative WC means your suppliers and vendors are financing your short term operational requirements .
    Mar 17, 2015. 06:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm - Quantifying The Capital Return Program [View article]
    As mentioned , QCOM's reinvestment rate is 38 percent, which means retention rate is 62% (1-0.38). Sustainable growth rate ( G) over the last 9 years is 7.5 % and cost of capital ( C)is 9.1%. Hope it helps
    Mar 10, 2015. 11:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Qualcomm - Quantifying The Capital Return Program [View article]
    According to the press release " Qualcomm intends to repurchase $10 billion of its common stock within approximately twelve months of the date of this announcement, in addition to its current commitment to return a minimum of 75% of its free cash flow to stockholders through stock repurchases and dividends."

    So this is on top of returning 75% of free cash flow
    Mar 10, 2015. 07:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Abercrombie Shares At An Inflection Point Now [View article]
    caret311

    That's exactly I have been saying. At this price level, risk-reward is shifting
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coty: Can't Cut Your Way To Growth [View article]
    Let me ask you this ; " would you pay 20 times for company whose revenues probably will grow at anemic 1-1.5% overall". Even though they are growing in emerging markets , majority of their revenue still comes from US.
    After this cost cutting , what's next : revenues aren't going to grow in high single digit even

    Why that multiple then
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • J.C. Penney Has Less Volatility Ahead [View article]
    Retail space in U.S. Is undergoing capex cycle to integrate omni channel strategies . While store rationalization was much needed to stop it from bleeding , low hanging fruit is vanishing now. Company needs to steer itself towards a sustainable path and omni channel will be a key.
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can U.S. Equity Still Deliver If The Fed Hikes? [View article]
    My simple take : fed' intent though indirect from QE was to suck out the volatility from market . Now when they get back to normalized stance, a natural consequence would be volatility
    Given the levels valuations are currently at , upside volatility will be limited and overshadowed by downside volatility
    Feb 28, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Abercrombie Shares At An Inflection Point Now [View article]
    Ralph Wanger

    I agree completely teen retail is an extremely fickle market. And congratulations on making the dough from your short position. Stock has now lost almost 50 percent of its market-cap.

    Who is to say ANF rivals who are enjoying their success now wouldn't suffer as fashion changes.

    Risk reward is changing to the upside
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abercrombie Shares At An Inflection Point Now [View article]
    While I agree that revenue decline better than expected is not the definition of growth but my friend in real lot it changes the perceptions. At the end it's a game of managing expectations. I am not saying stock can't go down from here but risk reward is shifting to the upside . Even though this time it's for ANF, people behavior doesn't change much: how ppl reacted to AAPL, NFLX , COH , WFM in last two years .
    Yes ANF became a victim of its own success , and it's paying for it's self inflicted wounds.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Abercrombie Shares At An Inflection Point Now [View article]
    I m not saying ANF can't go down from here but risk reward is shifting to the upside given extremely bearish sentiment. Fashion my friend changes very swiftly and people switch to it similarly.
    Feb 27, 2015. 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
420 Comments
241 Likes