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Nitin Gulati  

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  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    For something out in next 20 years, would you the price now that's the question.
    Jun 20, 2015. 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    3000-3500 store count opportunity was laid out by management , and if you believe opportunity is much bigger than this , obviously you know something which management doesn't. I clearly laid out "Thus, the market is valuing Chipotle's brand extensions Shophouse and Pizzeria Locale between $7.5 billion to $9.1 billion". And if you are willing to pay that much for a concept that hasn't even taken off the ground , you definitely can , but i suspect if it will be a profitable endeavor for you
    Jun 20, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    Don't ignore investors get over-excited on upside and panic on downside. This short will turn into good winner, but needs patience- a risk I am willing to take in current market scenario.
    Jun 17, 2015. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    But don't forget unit economics , capex requirement is creeping up, if comp growth slows, only alternative is to jack up the prices again. But raising prices could turn consumers away given there is now cost to switch for consumer.
    Jun 17, 2015. 08:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pier 1 Imports - Deep Value Stock Poised To Outperform Williams-Sonoma [View article]
    I think its a circular argument : Growth is slow hence capital is excessive but if we invest , investment community will invariably punish the stock for short -term depression in margins because street unfortunately holds a myopic view.

    While I can see your argument on paying excess capital back to shareholders via a special dividend payment, but given the sentiment around the stock, I can easily someone making the case for expanding the buybacks.
    Jun 15, 2015. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pier 1 Imports - Deep Value Stock Poised To Outperform Williams-Sonoma [View article]
    I should have included FCF but nevertheless I think I clearly laid out my thesis on it. One can argue buybacks are a financial gimmicks, but buying back share at the undervalued levels is accretive for the shareholders, and that is a reality which can't be dismissed.
    Jun 15, 2015. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    Shareholder returns and recapitalization indeed is a possibility but market hasn't woken up to the reality that CMG is maturing . Once that sets in , multiple will contract. Besides the fundamentals, overall market is getting closer to a deep correction, which is another risk for CMG at these levels
    Jun 12, 2015. 06:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    It basically comes down to what assumptions are you making and are they justified? Use an ild mathematician's trick that sets some variables to zero and then ask what would it look like then??
    Jun 11, 2015. 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    Well by projecting its a well run business you can fuel expectations notably, precisely thats what CMG is. Rapid expansion will eventually catch but unfortunately risk of loss by then will sit in shareholder laps not the management.
    Jun 10, 2015. 11:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    That's true !! Its disappointing this is a clear writing on the wall , yet no one accepts it
    Jun 10, 2015. 02:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    marvin

    Question is if you are long term buy and hold investor would you rather buy near peak levels or broader market top levels , when several extraneous factors can create a notable downside. Combine it with slow-down in growth
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    While I don't underestimate the impact of leverage , I rather not overstate the growth potential.
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    It needs to drop a lot below $550 to make it an attractive long term investment. Don't forget the bond market rout, which will inevitably push your expected return higher as well.
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    But will slowing comp growth , those reinvested earnings earn less returns. Yes, you can make an argument clean balance sheet and more focus on buyback can support the share price, but trust me when market wakes up to slowing growth they will sell first and ask questions later .
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'When Facts Change, I Change My Mind': Coming Around On Chipotle [View article]
    With the broader market or I should bond market rout which we are about to witness, corrections in growth stories will be steep and likewise more painful.
    Jun 10, 2015. 01:15 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
441 Comments
246 Likes