Njord Wind

Why Isn't Midwest Wind-Generated Power Blowing East?

epeon: Gather some more data. New onshore wind farms cost anywhere from $.05 - $.09/ kwh, depending on the wind resource. While existing coal plants may generate in the range you mentioned, new coal plants will cost as much or more than wind. The PTC is worth just north of $.02/kwh, so unsubsidized wind would cost $.07-$.11/kwh. Your estimates for gas plants are roughly correct, until gas prices go back to $6-$7/MMBTU. Your rhetoric about "electric bills doubling" is ignorant and irresponsible.

Buffalo Wild Wings: Costs Are Getting Out of Control

Admittedly, inventory accounting is not a large issue for this company, but then again, it isn't a large part of my thesis. All I said was: "It's usually a red flag". Perhaps you'd care to comment on something more substantive? Please try to avoid name-calling, it's unbecoming.

I was unaware the "sports bar" concept was previously unfriendly to college students and blue collar beer swillers. Has the segment heretofore been accessible only to yuppies and hipsters? The only thing the CEO has executed is sell tickets on her stock, and I'm pretty sure (but I'll double check) that the NCAA tournament occurs every year, so it'll be reflected in the comps already. Except that last year we weren't in the midst of a terrible recession and they were buying wings for $1.25.

As to John, I don't go short and then look for negatives. I find the thesis, do the research and then go short. Hope never enters into the process.

Black Swans and Greenwashing Solar and Wind

Are you serious about Khosla? Co-founder of Sun Microsystems, former GP at Kleiner Perkins, current head of well respected venture shop Khosla Ventures.

Don't Be Fooled - Short Selling Restrictions Do Work

Wait a minute - your premise is essentially "I thought the market declines on Monday and Tuesday were more 'orderly' than those of last week and therefore the short ban is 'working'" ("orderly" and "working subject to one's own definition). Sounds more than a little tenuous. I'm also extremely skeptical of the idea that there is a way that markets "should" behave.

Remind me again how short sellers cause solvent companies to go BK? Did short sellers cause LEH to lose billions of dollars? Don't be stupid, these companies got themselves into trouble.

While it might look good in your textbook, there are large differences between a short position and a synthetic short position made via options.

What do you expect Chanos and Kass to do? Sit by and accept it? The SEC is legislating their business models out of existence - you'd better believe they're going to protest it.

Naked shorting has always been banned, should be banned, and the ban should be enforced. I'd also be fine with them bringing back the uptick rule. But this heavy handed ban was brought down so people could think the SEC was "in control", only to later discover the thing was so hastily implemented and crudely constructed that the SEC was clearly as out of it as ever. It's caused ill-concieved havoc in the stock loan, ETF and options world. That said, I would fear its expiration, because we are indeed in a manipulated market at the moment, and look out below when the ban comes off.

E*TRADE Financial: It Was Good to Be Long

At 3:59 on Friday someone sold 4M shares. The value of that holding is north of $15M, so the person selling it is likely an asset manager with assets in the hundreds of millions, minimum. You think you know more than them?

Not trying to take a position either way on ETFC, just pointing out that the block sale is not a relevant data point.

E*TRADE Financial: It Was Good to Be Long

At 3:59 on Friday someone sold 4M shares. The value of that holding is north of $15M, so the person selling it is likely an asset manager with assets in the hundreds of millions, minimum. You think you know more than them?

Not trying to take a position either way on ETFC, just pointing out that the block sale is not a relevant data point.

Why We're Nuts About Acorn Energy

I wouldn't be too concerned about insider holdings. The only real insider here is John Moore, the CEO, who owns about 4% of the company.

I also wouldn't think about this company in terms of "earnings". For example, that $2.45 in earnings you mention includes nearly $29M in gain on sales of COMV shares - not exactly sustainable earnings.

I definitely wouldn't think of them as an "energy" stock in the usual definition; that term usually means oil and gas related stocks. The stock has been under pressure recently because COMV, of which they still own a significant amount, is down from $14 to $6 in the last month. However, I'm relatively bullish on COMV as well, so I wouldn't worry about this.

I like to think of this company as a nice portfolio of mid to late stage venture companies, without the fees of a real venture investment. I think any of their portfolio companies could one day double the value of the company, if you can just wait 2-3 years to realize the value.

Brokerage Stocks: Trouble on the Horizon?

Did I say something "this company has pretty good visibility", and therefore the likelihood of them missing badly was poor? Being short OXPS at this price has terrible risk/reward, especially if your short thesis is: "I think they're going to miss".

Titan Machinery: Doesn't Anybody Look at Valuation?

You can reach me at NjordWind at Yahoo dot com. I welcome informed discourse on any of my picks, especially if you disagree with me.

Brokerage Stocks: Trouble on the Horizon?

The only forward looking numbers I cited were earnings - on a trailing basis P/sales and P/ebitda are at all time lows. Furthermore, this company has pretty good earnings visibility, at least into the next quarter. This is because they provide us with monthly updates on DARTs, new accounts, margin balances, etc. This means estimates for the current quarter already have 2 months of information built into them. I've got my own model for estimating earnings, it has performed quite well, and it's currently pointing towards the high side of analyst estimates for this quarter.

Could you please elaborate on the "current conditions" under which OXPS can't make more money? I've already pointed to the high correlation of OXPS revenues to CBOE volumes to show how it's quite easy to see revenues and net income increasing year over year. Your short thesis does go beyond "I've got a feeling", doesn't it?

Here's one thing to think about: How, exactly, does capital flee the market? Hint: It doesn't take the bus.

Brokerage Stocks: Trouble on the Horizon?

Whoops: Disclose needed - long OXPS.

Brokerage Stocks: Trouble on the Horizon?

Can't say I agree with your short thesis. I don't know a lot about IBKR and even less about SCHW, but I've spent a fair amount of time on OXPS. I've noticed their revenues (and, because of their very stable margins, net income) correlate very highly with quarterly CBOE volumes. The model could use a little work because I don't break out PFOF and interest income, which will be declining to flat in the current environment. However, 2Q08 CBOE volumes were up 27% versus the prior year period, meaning commissions and other brokerage income should remain strong. We've also seen DARTs, net new accounts and margin balances hang in very well during April and May, although admittedly June was a very bad month, and may have scared some people away. Furthermore, the retail investor has hung in thus far, and of course options can be used in either market direction. Bottom line is I've got several indicators pointing towards upside to the 2Q numbers. Do you have something you can point to besides "The stock and market have gone down and thus I don't think they'll hit numbers"? Not trying to be antagonistic, I'm just looking for a little more detail.

On another note, if you've been short these stocks for awhile,well done, good trade thus far. If you've just initiated the positions recently, however, I think you're in the wrong place. In addition to everything I mentioned above, OXPS is currently trading at all-time lows in P/Forward earnings, P/S, P/EBITDA, pretty much every valuation measure, and they numbers aren't even that high: 12X forward earnings and 7.7X EBITDA. Margins have remained steady. The stock has already fallen 37% this year (after a 49% rise in 2007); still, I think you missed your chance.

Broadwind Energy: Fun with SEC Filings

Unfortunately, I can't reveal my identity or cost basis in BWEN. I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with the company, in fact I think they're executing well and have been reasonably impressed with management thus far. I'm flat out jealous of Tontine, the foresight to be buying this stock 2 years ago at $1.50 is tremendous. However, as I've outlined, I think there are several indicators that the fundamental value of the company is significantly below the current trading value, and thus the short position.

For me, investing is a business and I don't become emotionally involved in stocks. Ergo, the movements of stocks in my portfolio has 0 correlation to my bathroom visits.