The Fed Is Not Pushing Stock Prices Higher [View article]
Paul,
I agree that earnings are a primary market driver, but the past 5 years show a striking correlation between monetary base and market moves: http://bit.ly/YwBYNB
Additionally, showing the downward trend in US, Japanese, and German bond rates doesn't prove that Fed easing isn't propelling the stock market. Japan has been easing for the past 20 years. Germany has kept money relatively tight, but it has low rates because of its safe and powerful economy. Essentially, while you could argue that the three countries have different monetary/fiscal policies, the real similarity causing the relative low rates is likely that they have strong economies and are safe places to put money. Similarly, if you took three strong S&P companies with vastly different business plans but strong income statements, they would all have relatively low bond rates because they are safe places to put money.
Electronic Arts (EA -7.7%) is now seeing big losses, as the Street concludes its March quarter warning takes priority over John Riccitiello's resignation. Game developers Activision (ATVI -2%), Take-Two (TTWO -1.8%), Zynga (ZNGA -1.7%), and Glu Mobile (GLUU -6.8%) are also lower, as is retailer GameStop (GME -2.3%). EA's warning comes a few days after NPD provided more downbeat retail sales data for the industry to chew on, as aged consoles and a shift to mobile gaming continue taking a toll. (earlier) [View news story]
I agree generally. Not sure mobile is going away. However, console is a whole different beast. I believe the game play on consoles will keep getting more in-depth and story driven, with better graphics. I believe prices will be able to rise and these games will ALL be downloadable, like they are for Steam, and margins will get better for gaming companies. Just different animals. Anyone that has spent a lot of time gaming (me...) knows the allure of a great console gaming experience.
Freeport-McMoran Copper: A Sold Long-Term Holding [View article]
I believe I did send it in to editors as "Solid"!... Sometimes editors change things, at least that's the theory I'm going with. Maybe it was my fault... Copper broke key support last night on Cyprus & China news, so this may really test its $31 support.
Tiffany: A Large Shareholder Loaded Up On This Stock Last Week [View article]
I think you are correct, and that's probably what Qatar thinks too. Gems and precious metals should hold their value well in a world awash flooded with money.
I know I'll get killed for that title... It wasn't my first choice, but editors can be persuasive. First choice for title: "Crouching Dollar, Hidden Bonds." Much vaguer, how I like it.
The bonds breaking out of the channel are what have me transfixed. Not down today...
Is The Market Stalling, Reversing Or Resting? [View article]
Who said sell, haha? I just enjoy trying to predict market movements. It depends on your time frame. If you are a buy and hold investor, then don't sell, or maybe use a collar. If you trade more frequently -- like a swing trader -- a move like this would be more relevant. That's why I didn't say "sell now." All depends on your style of investing/trading.
Personally, I use opportunities like this -- where I see a moderate pullback in a larger bull market -- to add puts as a hedge. If we sell down to 1460, it would help offset losses.
Marvell Technologies: Buy, Sell, Or Hold? [View article]
Thanks for the comments Frank. Not sure about the Fast Money thing you refer to, since I don't have TV. I spotted it as holding of Einhorn and the other "hedgies," and thought it would be worth exploring. Also sorry about the spell-check. It does usually catch most things.
Is The Market Stalling, Reversing Or Resting? [View article]
Hi Stanley,
My feeling is that we see a moderate pullback in next couple weeks. I am not calling a top.
I believe the bull market continues as long as the Fed is infusing liquidity, and we eventually see new highs. I don't think earnings are indicating growth that would probably precede a hiring boom, so the Fed will continue QE...
Maybe recent increases in consumer spending, especially by <90k earners, indicates their debt has been paid down enough for them to start making bigger purchases. And this could lead to more widespread earnings growth, then hiring, etc... Its probably just easier to watch the monetary base.
Is The Market Stalling, Reversing Or Resting? [View article]
I agree Eagle, probably too many people predicting it, but seeing JNK diving the last week got me suspicious. I guess that is why I'm only leaning towards a mini-pullback to 1490 for now...
The Fed Is Not Pushing Stock Prices Higher [View article]
I agree that earnings are a primary market driver, but the past 5 years show a striking correlation between monetary base and market moves: http://bit.ly/YwBYNB
Additionally, showing the downward trend in US, Japanese, and German bond rates doesn't prove that Fed easing isn't propelling the stock market. Japan has been easing for the past 20 years. Germany has kept money relatively tight, but it has low rates because of its safe and powerful economy. Essentially, while you could argue that the three countries have different monetary/fiscal policies, the real similarity causing the relative low rates is likely that they have strong economies and are safe places to put money. Similarly, if you took three strong S&P companies with vastly different business plans but strong income statements, they would all have relatively low bond rates because they are safe places to put money.
Best
Electronic Arts (EA -7.7%) is now seeing big losses, as the Street concludes its March quarter warning takes priority over John Riccitiello's resignation. Game developers Activision (ATVI -2%), Take-Two (TTWO -1.8%), Zynga (ZNGA -1.7%), and Glu Mobile (GLUU -6.8%) are also lower, as is retailer GameStop (GME -2.3%). EA's warning comes a few days after NPD provided more downbeat retail sales data for the industry to chew on, as aged consoles and a shift to mobile gaming continue taking a toll. (earlier) [View news story]
Freeport-McMoran Copper: A Sold Long-Term Holding [View article]
Tiffany: A Large Shareholder Loaded Up On This Stock Last Week [View article]
Tiffany: A Large Shareholder Loaded Up On This Stock Last Week [View article]
Different U.S. And European Economic Policies Have Implications For What Stocks To Own [View article]
S&P Poised For Pullback To 1460 [View article]
The bonds breaking out of the channel are what have me transfixed. Not down today...
How Close Is Capstone Turbine? [View article]
Top 13 Stocks For 2013 [Part 3] [View article]
Is The Market Stalling, Reversing Or Resting? [View article]
Personally, I use opportunities like this -- where I see a moderate pullback in a larger bull market -- to add puts as a hedge. If we sell down to 1460, it would help offset losses.
Marvell Technologies: Buy, Sell, Or Hold? [View article]
Is The Market Stalling, Reversing Or Resting? [View article]
My feeling is that we see a moderate pullback in next couple weeks. I am not calling a top.
I believe the bull market continues as long as the Fed is infusing liquidity, and we eventually see new highs. I don't think earnings are indicating growth that would probably precede a hiring boom, so the Fed will continue QE...
Maybe recent increases in consumer spending, especially by <90k earners, indicates their debt has been paid down enough for them to start making bigger purchases. And this could lead to more widespread earnings growth, then hiring, etc... Its probably just easier to watch the monetary base.
Check this out from Caldaro: http://bit.ly/Y1rNve
Best, N.P.
Is The Market Stalling, Reversing Or Resting? [View article]