Seeking Alpha

Northwest Stock Maven

 
View Northwest Stock Maven's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Amarin: A Physician's Perspective On Vascepa [View article]
    Pharmapro, you write suspiciously like some Pronova malcontents have in the past. You lose all credibility with these lines, back-to-back:

    "...You don't even know the most rudimentary basics here, so what is the point of writing this nonsense?

    Read Alex Heisenberg's articles instead for some reality based information..."

    While there are cautionary notes to counter some of the more ardent bulls' hubris--and DocRx repeatedly offers cautions in his article--suggesting that Heisenberg has a good grasp of reality does not bear up under even a cursory reading of his self-serving tripe.

    This is the guy who advised dumping Amarin and loading up on Celsion a few weks before CLSN crashed--and maintained his buy until the bitter end. That was followed with advocating for AFFY, again followed by a major crash-and-burn for his acolytes. So when he says AMRN is going to tank, well, it sounds pretty bullish to my ears, and your citing AH as an expert in 'reality based information' suggests your own grip on reality may be a tad weak...
    Feb 26, 2013. 12:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    YM,
    JZ left Reliant in August 2007; the sale was completed in November.2007 Talks didn't just start in September, and Joe was COO at the time. And several other high-ranking Lovaza alums are on the Amarin team.

    This is, however, a test of patience. Knowing the facts is key to having appropriate confidence in one's investment, per Buffett.
    Feb 22, 2013. 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Should have read 'phase III', not 'phase II'...
    Jan 31, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Steve,
    That was a good call on CLSN. I got lucky; sold my CLSN around the time of your call, and bought more AMRN. Yesterday I was wondering if that was a good move, lol. CLSN has an interesting approach, and I hoped--still do, for the sake of the ca population it would serve--that it would prove efficacious.

    I got out ahead of the phase II results simply because it was a binary event at a critical time. Upside was significant, but the downside was, too. Part of my investment process is to determine my tolerance for max pain; I am generally unwilling to hold any investment through phase III reporting. And today I'm feeling smart, but lucky, too.
    Jan 31, 2013. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    I wish you were correct, but unfortunately, the clock started ticking with PDUFA. It continues ticking while were in limbo; I believe until it it's decided pone way or the other, we have de facto protection--maybe Steve R or another knowledgeable poster can verify this.
    Jan 31, 2013. 10:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Chunk, that YMB post is wishful thinking. I wish it was true; it would move things along in a hurry. Rather, the risks run along a continuum, and the therapies to deal with the risks are a complex mix of statins, Lovaza or Vascepa fish oil derivatives, fibrates, niacin, etc. Docs will go with what is familiar until they are educated that something else is better, or at least that what they are prescribing is not efficacious. The latter is causing both fibrates and niacin to lose favor, to the benefit of VASCEPA in the long run.
    Jan 30, 2013. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    bee, I cannot speak for Steve, but the OB updates do, indeed just appear one day. Usually at the end of the 2nd full business week of the month; next up is around Feb 15th.
    Jan 28, 2013. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Steve,
    It's 'rapeseed' not 'rape seed', more commonly called 'canola'. Haven't heard of it as a source of omegas, though flaxseed is noted for that. I don't think its a threat at this time, though in ten years, with gm efforts, who knows? Right now, VASCEPA is the only game, and will be for probably five years minimum. Could top dog for a lot longer than that. Even if Monsanto or someone can create a gmo EPA, Amarin still has patent protection until 2030, and exclusivity agreements that have tremendous vsalue beyond their contract value in their creation of significant barriers to entry for VASCEPA competitors.
    Jan 21, 2013. 08:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Facts And Risk/Reward Suggests Current Pricing Is A Great Entry Point [View article]
    Lots of positive movement for AMRN today, for a change. Large jumps in volume and price. Some are speculating that NCE is imminent, though I am not convinced. Nonetheless, AMRN has clearly found bottom, and is starting an upward trend as the FDA's NCE determination, the VASCEPA sales roll-out, and discussions with partners for ANCHOR and/or potential buyout all loom in the coming few months.
    Jan 17, 2013. 02:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Facts And Risk/Reward Suggests Current Pricing Is A Great Entry Point [View article]
    Nomaly,
    Sometimes you've got to dig to get better information. Agreed, Novacep's plant is not being built solely for Amarin, but it's the major driver. If you read the French press, such as this article in the 'Economy' section of LeMonde (http://bit.ly/10BJbyr), you will learn this about why they are building this project::

    "(The Mourenx facility is),,,a project of 30 million euros intended in particular for supplying the American Amarin in highly purified omega-3. The financial arrangements of this investment, supported by local and Total, is not yet completed. "We need to prove that Amarin our manufacturing process works," said an employee of Mourenx. Which requires at least a year and a half."

    Those who know this information have an investing advantage over those who don't. Use it or not, it's your choice.

    As to your claim that the markets must be pricing AMRN appropriately, it is true that at any given time, an equity is only worth what you can get for it. However, Warren Buffet became the worlds's richest man by identifying where the market was failing to appreciate underlying equity value. The greatest risks to Amain's value are in the rear-view mirror at this point; specifically obtaining a favorable PDUFA determination and securing some key patents. There are clearly some risks that remain, but the risk/reward for Amarin at this point is very compelling.

    Reliant was bought out by GSK for $1.65 billion at a time when Lovaza generated sales of about $200 million/year. Currently, with a thin slice of the market available to VASCEPA, it generates a billion dollars per year in the US. I stand by my projections of price appreciation over the next twelve months. Readers, of course, should exercise their own due diligence in making their investment decisions.
    Jan 17, 2013. 10:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Facts And Risk/Reward Suggests Current Pricing Is A Great Entry Point [View article]
    I think NCE is likely, though I'm not up at Steve R's 99% probability. I'm probably thinking more like 70%, but in any case, the delay is due to changes in how the FDA manages the NCE process. With those changes, they want to be certain that whatever their decision, its strongly defensible from any legal angle that might be raised. Rest assured, whatever the decision, courts are going to get involved.

    I think resolution is close; it could be any time in the next three or four months. Personally, I'm hoping for Friday ;)
    Jan 16, 2013. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Facts And Risk/Reward Suggests Current Pricing Is A Great Entry Point [View article]
    Differences in opinion are what make markets. There is no paperwork for patients with insurance to get the 'coupon' rate, which meets or beats Lovaza. You are correct, though, satisfied Lovaza users are unlikely to switch unless their doc suggests it, and provides info as to why it makes sense. I expect a ramp up over several months, as prescribing docs become more broadly informed about the whys of VASCEPA's superiority to Lovaza.

    Insurance companies are about paying for better as opposed to less effective treatments, as it reduces their exposure to greater costs. And the liability of not moving to a more effective treatment is significant in the US; not so much elsewhere.

    As to what percent Lovaza patients qualify, I expect its a significant majority, given the clear direction from the FDA that Lovaza is inappropriate for lower TG patients, due to its unfortunate side effect of raising LDL levels by up to 45%, while VASCEPA has no such effect. Physicians are not going to prescribe an off-label use that may harm their patients.

    The promise of VASCEPA is sufficient that Novacep is building the world's largest chromatography plant to handle the tremendous demand coming in about 18 months.
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    I kind of like the symbolism of what an approval on the Ides of March would do to short positions, though I'm okay with an earlier approval...
    Jan 16, 2013. 10:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Facts And Risk/Reward Suggests Current Pricing Is A Great Entry Point [View article]
    Besides the fact that VASCEPA is a better fit for the Lovaza market than is Lovaza--and it's generating $1.4 billion in sales worldwide annually--VASCEPA is also showing promise as a therapy for the much larger 200-500mg/dl high tg market. This population is 10x that of the 500+ group you reference. And some insurers (e.g., Coventry, the Us's 7th laregest insurer, recently bought out by Aetna) are already allowing coverage for the lower use, a use which Lovaza is contraindicated for.
    Jan 16, 2013. 09:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin: Facts And Risk/Reward Suggests Current Pricing Is A Great Entry Point [View article]
    I don't think we're looking anywhere close to three years. I think uptake will be slow to start-as it would be for most drugs where there is already a treatment in place for a given condition, even if the treatment is markedly inferior. People will run out their supply of current meds, unless they feel bad, and high trigs and CVD don't generally make folks feel ill day to day. However, as the word spreads among cardio docs--and I think AMRN has a crackerjack team to accomplish that marleting--uptake will accelerate. Within the year, Lovaza will be losing significant share to VASCEPA, and revenues will start getting attention. I think we're looking six to 18 months to see a buyout; six months will likely produce a price in the mid to upper 20s; 18 months will be over $30, imo.
    Jan 15, 2013. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AMRN by Northwest Stock Maven
COMMENTS STATS
37 Comments
40 Likes