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Nowacki Asset Management

 
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  • Summer Infant Looking To Get Smaller, Smarter, And More Profitable [View article]
    I have no issues with you disagreeing with me as long as the conversation is professional. I, like most professional investors with at least tens of millions of AUM, avoid Seeking Alpha discussions because many of the amateur investors and bloggers on here with no professional money management experience are arrogant and rude. A lot of college kids with no experience investing that think they know everything and are disrespectful in an attempt to be funny. Discussions on here are more productive when they are done with respect.

    Every time you buy a share of stock, the person selling it to you disagrees with you. I have no problem with you disagreeing with me. Out of my 10 holdings, KIDB and SUMR are my two smallest positions and have the most uncertainty. They also have the most upside this year.

    Given your name you obviously value insider trades. I completely ignore them. If there was big selling, I'd re-evaluate my analysis. However, insider buying, or the lack thereof, doesn't matter to me. I'd have missed out on most of my best investments if I didn't buy just because insiders weren't buying.
    Apr 11 02:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Summer Infant Looking To Get Smaller, Smarter, And More Profitable [View article]
    "Good luck with your position - I think you'll need it."

    If what you "think" influenced the operations or value of the company, I'd be worried. Since you have no influence on operations and you cannot impact the value of the company, I will ignore your snide remarks.
    Apr 11 01:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summer Infant Looking To Get Smaller, Smarter, And More Profitable [View article]
    In terms of disclosure, I purchased 3% of the outstanding stock in the past few weeks. If the fundamentals improve over the next few quarters as I expect, I will buy more at this price.
    Apr 11 12:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summer Infant Looking To Get Smaller, Smarter, And More Profitable [View article]
    About 45% of shares outstanding are held buy insiders and 5% holders. There are many reasons why insiders buy or sell shares. For example, were insiders buying under $2 in 2012 to help boost the stock to avoid a de-listing notice from the Nasdaq?

    I've never bought or sold a stock based on what insiders are doing. I am a professional investor, insiders typically have no more experience with investing than the average American investor. If the company gets back to profitability this year the stock will do well, regardless of the fact insiders and 5% owners still control only 45% of the company.
    Apr 11 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summer Infant Looking To Get Smaller, Smarter, And More Profitable [View article]
    Both KIDB and SUMR have had a rough last couple of years, yet their FCF was positive. So they have positive FCF in the toughest of times and they are both cutting costs and expected to improve margins. The worst is behind for both companies.

    They are selling at prices of maximum pessimism, which is justified given the past few years. However, they are now both positioned to improve the bottom line and FCF, even though improving sales likely won't happen soon.
    Apr 10 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Weight Watchers Now, It's A Value Trap [View article]
    As long as there are fat people, there will be demand for WTW. I agree that it has short-term downside at this price given the challenges this year, but I expect to see the company earning $200 mil in 2016 (which is around their 10 year average income). They've earned $200 mil on much lower revenue. I expect revenue to grow in single digits, but I expect them to cut expenses.

    I am not a holder, but I will be a buyer under $20 or the first sign of a turnaround. Stock will likely be at $40 in a few years ($200 mil in income at p/e of 12).
    Apr 10 01:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Summer Infant Looking To Get Smaller, Smarter, And More Profitable [View article]
    Good summary. I started buying at $1.9-$2.10 recently based on improvements coming in the 2nd half of 2014. I also think the stock should trade at $3 by the end of the year. It's a challenging and constantly changing industry, so I would like to see some strategic acquisitions to grow long-term. KIDB is a perfect candidate for a merger.
    Apr 10 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Best Stocks For 2014 [View article]
    I like VALE at $13. PBR is also a bargain at $11.
    Mar 10 01:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weight Watchers International's CEO Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    If this part proves to be true, you are looking at net income of $250 to $300 million in 2018. The market cap today is $1.25 billion. The stock would likely triple over the next 4 years from today's price of $22:

    "Right, Glen, I'll take the first piece. Basically we said at Analyst Day that we were confident that our recruitment trajectory would turn during 2015 and that we return to revenue growth in '16 and become $2 billion Company in 2018. We believe that as much as ever and its single-digit CAGR from the 2014 starting point to get there. We're confident we can turnaround the B2C business and Collins making no great, no inroads on the healthcare side of the house also."
    Feb 15 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fresh Market: Opportunity In The Sell-Off? [View article]
    Good article. Since many of the locations are concentrated on the East Coast and the weather has been terrible this winter, I'd expect comps on the low end for the period of bad weather. If that is the case, it might create a great buying opportunity for a good company with great growth potential. I recently put a few percent of AUM in TFM at $34 and if it declines I plan to buy more on the way down.
    Feb 11 05:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GeoInvesting Responds To Bronte Capital On AmTrust [View article]
    I am not a shareholder of Amtrust and I think everyone is having trouble following the arguments (unless the readers are CPAs within the insurance industry). The uproar about the article was because shareholders thought you should have brought it up at a conference call, with management already on the phone. Nevertheless, you certainly have the right to publicly express your concerns. My clients thank you for creating volatility and a good buying opportunity of the preferreds at $17.50-$18 on Thursday. Let's see what mgmt has to say about the issue at 5pm
    Dec 16 11:47 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    John Hempton, great link. Everyone that reads this speculative article by GEO should also read that article. I've been heavily buying the preferreds from $18 yesterday to $19.30 today.
    Dec 13 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    A director scooped up $6.5 million worth of shares at $32.50 today. He now owns almost $310 million worth of stock. I guess he disagrees with the article.
    Dec 12 06:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AmTrust Financial Services: A House Of Cards? [View article]
    Buy the preferreds at $18. Yielding about 9.5%, par value $25. Much safer than the common and very good upside potential. Even if the allegations are true, $400 million in write-downs, the company should be solvent.
    Dec 12 01:59 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCI: This Stock Is Up +90% YTD, So Why Should You Avoid It? [View article]
    This was my largest holding for 2 years; I bought the convertible preferreds at $7 and sold at $32 so I've followed the company closely. The point about insider selling seems trivial when you consider management founded the company and still owns a signficant portion of the outstanding stock.

    The reason I sold is because its source of growth is from the citizens policy's they assume. From what I understand, when they assume the policies they get the premium BEFORE they have to pay reinsurance on those policies. This provides a huge short-term boost to earnings but is not sustainable. If or when they stop assuming policies, it will be interesting to see how profitable HCI becomes.

    There is a reason nearly all major insurers stay out of Florida. HCI has not been tested yet by a hurricane.
    Oct 31 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
110 Comments
55 Likes