Comments on NuWire Investor's articles RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/author/nuwire-investor/articles http://seekingalpha.com/article/172857-the-stimulus-package-s-real-jobs-impact?source=feed#comment-756611 756611 Thu, 12 Nov 2009 03:10:35 -0500
It is pointless from an economic standpoint to try at this point in time to fine-tune the calculation of jobs saved or created by the stimulus package. One could argue, for example, that if there had been no stimulus intervention during the critical October of 2008 to March of 2009 period, then a much deeper recession or even a deflationary depression would have ensued with millions of further job losses extending for years into the future. One can also argue that job growth may be surprisingly brisk within two quarters by which time the economically dampening effect of the October of 2008 to March of 2009 period in the minds of consumers and employers will have further dissipated. On the other side, it can be argued that much that was in the stimulus package was not effectively targeted at job market issues and that the jobs effect is consequently modest. Only time will disclose the real answer to these conjectures.

The important thing, as NuWire Investor stresses, is that stimulus is not prematurely withdrawn, even at the risk of some modest inflation (and there really isn’t a significant indication that this is imminent), until the recovery really takes hold solidly in the real economy.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/172857-the-stimulus-package-s-real-jobs-impact?source=feed#comment-756127 756127 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 18:06:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/172857-the-stimulus-package-s-real-jobs-impact?source=feed#comment-756069 756069 Wed, 11 Nov 2009 17:06:01 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123931-more-money-to-aig-say-it-ain-t-so?source=feed#comment-413175 413175 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 15:20:48 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123931-more-money-to-aig-say-it-ain-t-so?source=feed#comment-412490 412490 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 09:36:26 -0500 if i spilled a barrel of oil on the coast, which then caused tens of thousands to clean up, do you think i will get the same nice treatment that was given these AIG execs? losing 60 BILLION dollars is the same as 10 exxon valdez spills -- but then again, exxon valdez execs mostly got away with that mess too. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123931-more-money-to-aig-say-it-ain-t-so?source=feed#comment-412137 412137 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:27:11 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123931-more-money-to-aig-say-it-ain-t-so?source=feed#comment-412133 412133 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 00:18:54 -0500
www.nytimes.com/2009/0...

dealbook.blogs.nytimes...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100553-real-estate-industry-looking-for-another-bailout?source=feed#comment-388932 388932 Sun, 15 Feb 2009 02:07:23 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113770-u-s-household-debt-burden-declines-first-time-in-50-years?source=feed#comment-350112 350112 > "While this news could be viewed negatively, I prefer to look at it in a positive light." >> >> "it is great to see Americans finally taking control " >> Taking one number, like outstanding debt, and dividing it by another number, like the number of American households give a resultant number - average indebtedness. But the measure is meaningless unless one looks at WHY it changed from earlier periods. To what degree did bankruptcy chargeoffs lower the debt ? How much in credit card debt chargeoffs ? How many people applied for more debt and were turned down ? How much debt was transferred by creditors to their non-performing portfolio of accounts in structured payoff plans ? Until and unless you know why the number changed, your conclusion is more than optimistic, it is unjustified. Statistics are only numbers until tested for significance. The devil is in the details. I'm just guessing here, but I suspect the drop in the number you reported has little or nothing to do with people "taking control". External financial circumstance are mandating a whole lot of changes that people are NOT choosing to make.]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:29:12 -0500 > "While this news could be viewed negatively, I prefer to look at it in a positive light." >> >> "it is great to see Americans finally taking control " >>

Taking one number, like outstanding debt, and dividing it by another number, like the number of American households give a resultant number - average indebtedness. But the measure is meaningless unless one looks at WHY it changed from earlier periods.

To what degree did bankruptcy chargeoffs lower the debt ? How much in credit card debt chargeoffs ? How many people applied for more debt and were turned down ? How much debt was transferred by creditors to their non-performing portfolio of accounts in structured payoff plans ?

Until and unless you know why the number changed, your conclusion is more than optimistic, it is unjustified. Statistics are only numbers until tested for significance. The devil is in the details. I'm just guessing here, but I suspect the drop in the number you reported has little or nothing to do with people "taking control". External financial circumstance are mandating a whole lot of changes that people are NOT choosing to make.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113770-u-s-household-debt-burden-declines-first-time-in-50-years?source=feed#comment-349879 349879 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 13:05:47 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113770-u-s-household-debt-burden-declines-first-time-in-50-years?source=feed#comment-349614 349614 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 10:22:41 -0500
Hmmm, we have a rise in the personal savings rate, but with a crash in gasoline prices, that doesn't necessarily signify increased frugality.

You also might want to read some of Elizabeth Warren's work. Though the article cites her with approval, it misses a few major points: she found that most bankruptcies resulted not from spendthrift ways, but from health crises, personal crises (divorce), or other matters that aren't exactly outgrowths of spendthrift ways.

If she's right, then a drop in household debt might be better explained by people who are in pain who defer treatment...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113770-u-s-household-debt-burden-declines-first-time-in-50-years?source=feed#comment-349468 349468 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 08:53:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332507 332507 Here's a partial list of the "Bushies" who fomented the housing bubble: > > > Barney Frank > Shelia Blair > Harry Pelosi > Nancy Reid > Jamie Gorelik > Maxine Waters > Franklin Raines > Gregory Meeks > Lary Clay > James Earl Carter > William Jefferson Clinton > > But wait! Something is wrong here. These Bushies are all Democrats!]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 17:46:04 -0500

On Dec 17 02:11 PM troglodyte wrote:

> Here's a partial list of the "Bushies" who fomented the housing bubble:
>
>
> Barney Frank
> Shelia Blair
> Harry Pelosi
> Nancy Reid
> Jamie Gorelik
> Maxine Waters
> Franklin Raines
> Gregory Meeks
> Lary Clay
> James Earl Carter
> William Jefferson Clinton
>
> But wait! Something is wrong here. These Bushies are all Democrats!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332420 332420 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 16:14:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332407 332407 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 15:59:49 -0500
i suppose if 1 considered "that the peasants are @ war with the vampires", it would be OK, but some peasants are also vampires, & perhaps some vampires are not.

The circus of good & evil.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332352 332352 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 15:01:44 -0500
The obligation is not to pay the loan... the obligation is to live up to the contract (aka mortgage) which clearly spells out the consequences for stopping payments.

If it's a good business decision for someone to walk away then they should read their contract (mortgage) carefully and see what power they have and what power they don't have.

Do you think the banks feel 'obligated' to help anyone but themselves?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332293 332293 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 14:11:09 -0500
Barney Frank
Shelia Blair
Harry Pelosi
Nancy Reid
Jamie Gorelik
Maxine Waters
Franklin Raines
Gregory Meeks
Lary Clay
James Earl Carter
William Jefferson Clinton

But wait! Something is wrong here. These Bushies are all Democrats!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332272 332272 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 14:00:38 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332123 332123 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 12:05:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332089 332089 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 11:38:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-332056 332056 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 11:14:01 -0500
I'd like to look at a few points...
[He already stole the appliances, and now he plans to take advantage of the lenders some more.]

Did he steal them? How do you know? There are plenty of cases where the renters have their own appliances in a SFH situation.

And, what evidence do we have that he didn't try to work things out with his lender?

[Since taxpayers are basically on the hook for many of these lenders, he is also taking advantage of taxpayers.]

Yeah, and so is AIG, and most of Wall Street, and all these other firms that are now posing as bank holding companies.

[If we can figure out a way to limit the bailout to only those homeowners who actually want to stay in their homes and who can afford to do so, I might be more inclined to support it. But any bailout, or other measure, that supports guys like this, will never get my backing.]

Apparently you haven't noticed that most workout activity, as well as most legislation have excluded all but owner-occupied properties.

... which is a possible reason why he's not trying to save the property.

Just as it's been mentioned that there are no atheists in foxholes, or libertarians in financial crises, there are few idealists in foreclosure.

Futhermore, depending on the location of the subject property, he may well be doing the investors a favor. Abandoned properties are a bit of a problem.

The mention that it may be a year before they foreclose has less to do with a moratorium than the fact that the servicers are backlogged, and the investors (judging by their spirit-of-the-season, self-imposed foreclosure delays seem to indicate that they're expecting Uncle Sam to shoulder some of these losses.

After working on the front line of this situation for some time now, I'm fairly critical of most of the players in this scenario. The short-sightedness, the stepping over dollars to save pennies, the sheer size and scale of denial (ALL parties on board)... is astounding.

However, things are much improved when compared to 18 months ago. I'm neither defending nor condemning this man for his actions. It's just that I'm now much less of those acting in their own best interest.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331990 331990 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:42:15 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331953 331953 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:22:05 -0500
What I am curious about is, to what extent did the industry prey on people? I've seen the ads for "solving all your problems with a HELOC", or "finding the home of your dreams no matter your credit." The people who responded weren't graduates of Rocket Science Academy. And the regulators were...well the Bushies replaced the regulators with yes men.

NPR's "Big Pool of Money" does a good job of summing up predatory lending.

So I want to see everyone pay. But I want to see the predators pay more.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331951 331951 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:21:35 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331906 331906 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 09:59:13 -0500
He took another $5M out by shrewdly refinancing his unsold houses for cash out as the homes escalated during the bubble. For example one house sold for $1.6M recently and it had a $2.5M loan on it. It cost him $1.7M to build but it appraised at $2.7M at the peak.

Bottom line he extracted $9M minus some court costs and never sold half of the homes he built. His corporation is bankrupt but he'll just create a new one. He thinks he did great as a builder.

Note that he didn't plan for any of this to happen. He just sort of fell into it. Initially he didn't know he could keep the rent and not send it onto the banks. Once he figured that out he used the courts to delay the foreclosures while collecting as much rent as he could.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331853 331853 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 09:27:52 -0500
In some markets we are experiencing an over correction in home prices however if these people will hold on some of their value will come back. If I tried to sell my home today it would be down about $200k compared to 2 years ago. My value will return when the private mortgage backed securities market stabilizes and the lenders once again open offer legitimate credit opportunities for higher priced homes. This does not relieve me of my obligation to pay my loan and for those who can afford to pay but simply stop paying we should build a whole bunch of debtor prisons. If this guy would have just stayed where he was he could have recovered a sizeable portion of his investment in a few short years.

Every program announced to "fix this mess" is exacerbating the problems we have and creating new ones. This guy in Florida should be charged with debt avoidance. The courts should be expediting these foreclosures, not delaying them. Thank God I live in Georgia where we can kick deadbeats like this guy out in as few as 4-8 weeks after they default. That also gives us the flexibility to work with families who are legitimate owners and are trying to stay in and pay for their homes.

I too have simpathy for individuals who are placed into difficult circumstances due to loss of employment, illness and other unavoidable situations but have no sympathy for the ones who signed liar loans saying the made twice as much money as they actually earn. This is why the modification programs have been an abysmal failure seeing more than 50% return to default status within 6 months or less.

It is time to end the bailouts
It is time for Americans to accept full responsibility for the bad investment decisions they made
It is time for the courts to expedite the inevitable
It is also time to totally dismantle our current mortgage securitization model and rebuild it in a way that is transparent, true and easy to evaluate.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331810 331810 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 09:04:30 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331738 331738 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 07:44:14 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111113-why-would-we-want-to-bail-out-this-homeowner?source=feed#comment-331712 331712 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 05:49:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110012-brazil-s-economy-still-going-strong-but-for-how-long?source=feed#comment-327976 327976 Fri, 12 Dec 2008 21:14:34 -0500 See Brazil on the top of the world is a bigg drean for every Brazilia and namy peaceful people around the globe!!
It may come to be true one day!]]>