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  • Tesla's Extremely Irrational Price: Part 2 With Bull Case Scenario [View article]
    Right - so in your world, a bull case scenario is where cannibalization of future products does not exist with new vehicle introductions some of which sell for half the price, and the world is made up of infinite millionaires who are all just impatiently waiting to buy Tesla cars. In your world, Tesla will just start stealing market share and profits from auto companies and dealerships, while they all just sit and watch as their companies collapse. In your world, a bull case scenario is where Tesla has a pure monopoly of the BEV market. When I write my articles, I use realistic judgment... I don't just throw around numbers like you and say "Hey it's worth $300 because they'll sell this many cars because I said so!!!" - There are income distribution considerations, there are disposable income considerations, affordability levels, risks, etc. YOu consider NONE of those. While I don't discount explicitly, I do consider the risks when building out a model. And by the way, in the future when you're talking about the PEG ratio, keep in mind that the G refers to bottom line growth, not top line. Maybe consider reexamining your price targets there since you don't even know the PEG formula.
    Oct 28 11:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's 64-Bit A7 Processor A 'Gimmick'? No, But It's Not The Next 'Big Thing' Either [View article]
    I'm just curious what kind of innovative phone concept are you looking for? There's more demand for the 5S than any other phone in the world right now. What exactly are you looking for? I've never seen any writer write more negative articles about one company than you. The company is doing quite well... they're generating cash flow... but you still continue to bitterly hate. I also noticed that your hate articles about Apple have increased lately. What's the deal man?
    Oct 28 11:02 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Remains Not Viable And Borderline Illegal [View article]
    there is no incentive to save any currency UNLESS you have trade channels in which you can purchase products for lower prices. there are ENORMOUS incentives for companies to purchase products from a country in which a currency suffers a shock. what you're saying is actually disputed by thousands of studies, facts, and just plain logic.
    Oct 28 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    you make a good point. I should have explained. they've diluted their shares considerably over the last 2 years (from 100 to 120 millions). Will they make payments in the form of options that will dilute shares further over time? in my opinion yes. I also wouldn't say the company is making "big profits" considering they've been in the red for quite a while (with exception of one quarter). It's attractive for Tesla to pay key employees with options over time. assuming 40 million dilution over the next 7 years is not so outrageous given their prior dilution during previous years.
    Oct 28 02:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Remains Not Viable And Borderline Illegal [View article]
    1. sure players coming together to purchase on-the-run bitcoin - creating what seems like demand - but actually artificial demand - in bitcoin... greater fools then start purchasing the short supply of bitcoin that is left in the market thinking that there is actually value in it further running up its value. then the smart people dump their bitcoin at a huge profit. there are no regulators overseeing this market - how do you know who's buying this currency?
    2 & 3: these are NOT commodities - they're artificial products backed by the equivalent of nothing. there is no value in them, no "real" demand in them, like there is in demand for gold, silver, oil, orange juice, etc.
    Oct 27 10:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Remains Not Viable And Borderline Illegal [View article]
    in reference to point #2, you are 100% wrong. It absolutely can collapse. You are right that "on the run" bitcoin supply is predetermined, but "off the run" bitcoin supply can be dumped by current investors and that can cause an oversupply of bitcoin with very little demand causing the value to crash. In such a situation, who will purchase the bitcoin at a lower price to save its value? there are no incentives for anyone to save it.
    Oct 27 08:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Remains Not Viable And Borderline Illegal [View article]
    1. There is no regulation of bitcoin so you could easily use a scheme to increase its value. The regulatory body that does monitor bitcoin is the FBI. lol Yea enough said.

    2. there is no "trade" by which bitcoin is backed. Meaning if a country's currency collapses against another currency, you could increase the value by boosting your exports. In bitcoin, no such trade exists (unless you count money laundering).

    3. It is possible that greater fools will continue bidding up bitcoin - but that's exactly how bubbles are formed. THere is NO WAY to value bitcoin. Why would you pay for something you can't value when it could explode in your face?
    Oct 27 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bitcoin Remains Not Viable And Borderline Illegal [View article]
    Bitcoin's future value is actually close to 0. Probably the most easy to manipulate currency in the history of man. The day it crashes will be an interesting day.
    Oct 27 07:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    OK so let's say they'll sell 250,000 next gen cars by 2020 at a much higher price than people project - 50K. At 20X multiple it gets the stock to $169. So let's say the stock is trading perfectly efficiently now at 2020 projections. People have nothing left to gain from the stock by 2020? Or are they hoping for some sort of a surprise... ? My point was only that there is little upside at these prices when they're modeling out in 2020.
    Oct 27 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    @Dan,
    I remember back when I was in college, I had about 5K in my bank account from working summer jobs as a lifeguard. I started seeing these white ipods everywhere. Every day I'd see another ipod on the subway. I knew that Apple was onto something. They were trading at $10 at the time. I didn't get it then and I regretted it until 2008 when the stock crashed to like 90. I got some then... but still - $5K at $10 a share would have been $685,000 (I sold the ones I picked up in 2012). It's just wild to think about that.
    Oct 26 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For Maximum Total Return, Go For Growth [View article]
    Very interesting. Thanks for all that research. One thing I will say is that it seems that some of the "successful" companies you mentioned in the beginning have all been very relevant in our every day lives even before their heavy growth phase: sbux, monster, apple, coach... I got into Apple at 100 when I noticed that they're becoming relevant in everyone's lives... and even then I was a little late. I've found that it's a lot more challenging today to find fairly valued growth stocks of companies that are very relevant in our lives. When I do, it seems to me that they're overpriced. What do you suggest?
    Oct 25 04:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    tech... it sounds like your problem is not with my research - it's with my forward assumptions. in the case of incomes, it's the disposable incomes that should be used to gauge how many people in this country and around the world can afford to purchase cars. When you factor in the disposables that can afford Tesla, most of them don't want it... so that leaves a few who do... ok that's great. That's your demand side.

    Then you've got your plethora of supply and demand side risks to consider as well. Production risks, political risks, competitive risks, etc etc etc.

    But yes, based on what you say, it sounds like you're expecting me to lower my forward price and expand my forward volume. This has nothing to do with research... since you don't know how well the Model E will do in the year 2016. What it sounds like you want me to here is incorporate inputs that I absolutely disagree with into my own model. That's kind of ridiculous since this is MY view. In any case, not everyone is going to like everything I write - I get that. But your approach to interact with a writer is a little - how do I say this - nasty. To make markets more efficient, everyone's views should be heard. If my assumptions are incorrect, then we will see that in the future of the Tesla price. But there is no "research" that will tell you the exact average selling price of the Model E cars. You can maybe squeeze out a base price estimate from some analysts - and come out with an view or estimate of the asp of your own but to call this "research" is quite ludicrous. Your approach really reminds me of how some crazies used to defend the internet stocks before the historic crash.
    Oct 25 04:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    haven't checked but i'd assume as a whole, volume doesn't grow so much, but individual volumes of specific lines probably grow.
    Oct 25 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    No offense, but that was quite a stupid reply. the fact that you modeled gross incomes and not disposable makes me really question your ability. there was a good article about a NY family making $250,000 gross income, living in a 2BR apartment on the upper west side and BARELY saving any money. In your model, these people are supposedly ripping off the IRS and evading taxes so they can purchase a Tesla vehicle. lol.
    Let's say if your numbers are correct, 2 or 3% can actually afford to buy a Tesla vehicle after paying taxes, their mortgage payments, and living expenses. That's a couple of million households as just the starting point of creating your market opportunity estimates. Then you start peeling off the masses who would never consider buying a tesla and maybe tesla's actual market opportunity is 500,000 households IF THEY'RE LUCKY. Then you can start modeling how much share of that opportunity they can capture over time and what I am saying is that they'll capture about 20%, which is excellent for any disruptive player.
    Oct 25 01:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Jona, I looked through it... the problem with Tesla's valuation metrics is that their next gen car isn't going to hit the ground running until 2016 and the majority of the future cash flows IN MY OPINION will come from that car. That is their entry into the mainstream - the vehicle that will actually peel off considerable share from your BMWs, etc. Because it happens so late in the game, it's EXTREMELY risky to model it at such a high growth rate as this guy does. Yes it MAY happen... but we don't live in a one player takes all world. We live in a competitive environment and so much could happen by 2016. The difficult part about all this is valuing cash flows that occur so many years out. That's why I disagree with this guy's main point on valuation: "There is no hard evidence or even any indication to suggest that Tesla will be unable to attract demand to keep pace continuously with growth at a 100% compound annual growth rate for many years to come."

    This is an outrageous assumption. We're not talking about phones or electronics here. We're talking about cars... there are lots of barriers to entry and existing car makers will viciously protect their turf.
    Oct 25 01:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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