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  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Ha that's exactly the point I am making in my article!!!!

    "The conclusion here is that it's merely impossible to project what will happen in the BEV industry by 2020 or how much of the BEV space will go to Tesla."

    But people are doing it - WITH THEIR MONEY - at rich valuations.
    Oct 25 12:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    I am using cannibalization in future estimates. You're a customer who bought Model S. You love it and you reserved a model X for your wife to replace her Lexus SUV. So here you have a small subset of the population that can 1. afford to buy Tesla cars and 2. is passionate enough about the vehicle to purchase it. So your model incorporates that population for growth purposes and demand. Now, instead of selling a Model S vehicle to this eligible person who would have likely bought a model S, you have to model that the customer has chosen to purchase the model X instead. Basically you're eating up demand with your new product. That IS cannibalization of an existing product. But thank you for telling me what it means.
    Oct 25 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Rik, funny you should bring that up.
    http://bit.ly/1acx4fn
    "Perhaps not surprising, many Model X reservation holders appear to be existing Tesla customers, with either a Roadster or a Model S already in their garage. Citing their happiness with the brand, many are looking to buy the Model X as a replacement for an existing SUV or non-electric car."
    What that means is we will get some existing customers buying new Model X but also we might see quite a bit of cannibalization. It doesn't affect my model at all since the price difference and volume difference between Model S and Model X should offset fairly equally over time.
    Oct 25 11:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Jona I appreciate your comments. Keep them coming :)
    The ludicrous comment was for Value.
    Oct 25 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    An average element gets 22MPG according to fuelly.com and let's say you spend $3.5 per gallon on gas with 5% gas increase per year. Let's say you drive 20,000 miles per year - that means you spent about $3k per year on gas adjusted for inflation. So during the 10 years you'll spend roughly 30K on gas. Basically what you're saying is that (20K+30K)>90K. Sounds like you need to go back to math class.
    Oct 25 11:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Beyond ludicrous. It's wishful thinking. Camry has powerful distribution channels via dealerships. Tesla has a website and a few stores. The more you write, the more I see Nasdaq bubble in your babbling.
    Oct 25 10:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Only about 5% of Other is Model X. The rest is next gen. I do not believe that a next gen with options will sell for $5k more than a Toyota Camry with options. That's just ludicrous. $50K is what it will go for. If you believe that a Tesla next gen with options will sell for 35K, then I really shouldn't be wasting my time replying to these messages.
    Oct 25 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    1. I appreciate that in your world Gen 3 will sell an infinite amount of cars, but in the world of reality - we have to make assumptions based on reality.
    2. I did not give it the PE of the companies in the the industry it is disrupting.
    3. OK.
    Oct 25 10:11 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    1. Just because I didn't give you my inputs, doesn't mean I assumed the ASP will stay the same for all their models. You're looking at a snapshot not at my formulas for individual models.
    2. 145K/yr could be off - neither you nor I know what the actual number will be. That's the point I was making. WE'RE NOT PROPHETS.
    3. OK.
    4. OK that doesn't contradict what I was saying.
    5. Ok so I never said their numbers are low because there is no demand. There are many reasons for a company's numbers being low. That should be factored into the stock either way.

    I am not going to respond to the comment you made in the end. I realize that attacks from cult followers is a part of the game. :) Thank you for reading.
    Oct 25 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Thanks. I agree that Gen 3 will be the top seller for them starting in 2016, but I've applied a sticker price of $50,000. If a Camry is selling for 30k+ at the top end, I just can't imagine that a Tesla will sell for 35K-40K. I assumed $50K.
    Oct 25 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Model S has a base price and the suggested retail price WITH options. I used the ASRP. I didn't even include tax, tag, and title that comes with purchasing a car. That would make it even more expensive. Do you actually know how much a model S sells for WITH options?
    Oct 25 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Incorrect. Other refers to Model X AND the next generation, something I noted in my article. You should read it before making irrational claims.

    "During that year, the assumption is that the company would sell 55,000 units of its Model S and 90,000 units of its Model X and its NEXT GENERATION vehicles at a lower average price."

    In fact if it wasn't for the next gen car, the stock would be worth about $20.
    Oct 25 09:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    What's interesting is that because I am saying their stock is trading irrationally, people immediately assume that I am also a Tesla hater. DISCLOSURE: I am actually a huge Tesla fan and my model shows that the company WILL succeed (I hope that it does) - that doesn't mean the stock is trading correctly.
    Oct 25 09:01 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Have you ever looked at this country's income distribution and the market opportunity for people who can afford $80,000 cars? It's tiny. In the markets Tesla has entered globally it's even worse. It's awesome that you can afford an $80,000-$90,000 vehicle, but you should look at this country's income distribution before you make your assumptions about how much Tesla can realistically sell.
    Oct 25 08:59 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Very Disruptive And Extremely Irrational [View article]
    Right, so they'll increase production by 300-400% with their current Model S... sure they will ;). The entire BEV market will likely barely surpass 80K and you're assuming that the luxury automaker will take 90+% of the entire market when they're currently capturing 42%? Think about what you're saying. You're hoping the impossible will happen.
    Oct 25 08:30 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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