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  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    You want me to count up the P/E of all the Nasdaq value stocks and compare them to the P/E to all the Nasdaq growth stocks? I could do it, but someone would have to pay me for my time. :)
    The general Nasdaq Composite Index of 30 P/E is nowhere near where it was in the dot com bubble days (something I mention in the article), when it was at above 100. I mentioned that during the dot com days, there really were no "value" stocks. Everything was trading at a "premium". Today the largest components of the Index (aapl, msft) are actually trading at an enormous discount. Taking these few large components out would increase the P/E significantly.

    In terms of who you should believe, you should still always do your own research after reading any article or analyst piece.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    Thanks for your comment.
    I wouldn't say "short all you can"
    Like some others mentioned, there are scenarios in which this rally could extend. I would suggest another Index or other stocks over the Nasdaq, but "short all you can" can backfire. Got to be careful with that too.
    Feb 23, 2014. 09:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    I think if the Nasdaq corrects, it would have an effect on the overall market, but the broad market would outperform. I personally would not get out of defensives and value anytime soon, even if I do feel like a correction is coming, as I have a longer-term horizon.
    Feb 22, 2014. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    All in due time.This is the very early stage of the "new Media" industry. While I give Netflix a lot of credit for revolutionizing the way we watch television today, they're going to have to fight an enormous battle in that market.
    Feb 22, 2014. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    @Mahler
    Here's what I say in the article:
    "Will there be those who pay up? Of course. The return on your dollar is significant if you actually use the service, even in lower-cost regions where WhatsApp is more widespread. At the same time, many could also switch to competing free services."

    The reason I'd say some won't pay up is because $1 in India is not the same as $1 in the US. For example, in India, where Whatsapp is widespread, the per capita GDP is $1,400 vs. $52,000 in US. That means if you're a family where money is tight - you'll think long and hard before purchasing an app, especially if you're a teen or just starting out.
    Feb 22, 2014. 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    I'm only required to disclose the securities which I discussed in the article. In this instance, of the subset of securities I discussed, being long AAPL would be in line with my thesis.

    Having said that, I'd like to respond to the general folly of your comment.
    "The whole rally" lasted for quite a while now. How in the world would you know my portfolio's composition during this time or what I've bought and sold to protect my portfolio?

    I am writing these articles to help the investment community understand my personal macro perspective. I am not doing this to "gain" credibility with "most". Like my disclaimer says, I do this to express my views. It helps that I've been a professional in this field for a very long time.
    Feb 22, 2014. 11:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    You're talking about the Nasdaq 100 not the Nasdaq Composite Index which includes 3000 stocks and is much broader. For example the Nasdaq 100 was not trading at above 100 P/E during the dot com bubble. The Nasdaq Composite was. This article is about the Nasdaq Composite.
    Feb 22, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    I wouldn't say 75%. You still have companies that are trading at multiples they didn't trade at during the bubble (like ebay & yahoo). I would also say that we're nowhere near the dot com bubble and neither would I expect an 80% drop in the index. But I definitely think any serious challenges to some of the growth companies I've mentioned would have a broader effect on the Nasdaq that would bring it in line with the S&P 500. So yea I'd say a 40% pullback wouldn't surprise me.
    Feb 21, 2014. 05:12 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    @bud
    Thanks for your comment. Which of these overvalued companies are you referring to? From a financial standpoint and I've included proof in the article, these companies are extremely inferior to the value stocks. Some of them introduced great concepts, but do not yet have the operating margins to face competitors on price for instance. A company like Netflix could we wiped out by a company that would introduce a popular video concept to its larger user base.

    In terms of the value stocks being in decline, they all currently have sales growth, but of course if I were investing in these companies, I'd make sure their products are actually selling well.
    Feb 21, 2014. 02:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    Sounds like you place absolute "reliance" on analyst assumptions and cash flow models to project forward earnings. I don't. Some "senior analyst" changed his Apple price target from 900 to 450 in a few months' time with almost no new information. What changed? Right.

    The fact that you believe a Chinese slowdown is a catalyst for growth in our own markets makes me wonder if you understand how interconnected the global economy is and why investors continue to bet on these firms even at the higher multiples.

    If this was 1999/2000, someone like you might say "put all your money into this thing! It's got more legs. The analysts said so!" ... And they did. I'd rather take a more conservative approach and miss out on irrational gains in order not to lose my hard earned money.

    Thanks for your comment, but my suggestion is if you're criticizing anyone, maybe use original thought.
    Feb 21, 2014. 02:07 PM | 35 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    So this is more complex and I alluded to this in the article. During the dot com, p/e was significantly higher. That's because even the largest constituents like Apple were trading at significant premiums. Today Apple and its value peers, which are the largest components of the Index trade at a deep discount to the Nasdaq p/e. If you take out these stocks, p/e would likely be a lot closer to the bubble levels during the dot com era.
    Feb 21, 2014. 11:25 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: This Is Ridiculous [View article]
    Good points. The other issue with Google is that they're currently a one trick pony - advertising. This space is extremely saturated and if anyone successfully attacks Google's model, their revenues could plummet. I wrote about Apple doing something like that - and will expand on my ideas in the near future.

    http://bit.ly/1md23hI
    Feb 13, 2014. 10:46 AM | 27 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Still Time To Short Apple [View article]
    you're betting against a company with 160 billion in cash, that is valued now at 290 billion ex-cash on operating income of 50 billion. you say:

    "That sort of balance sheet re-arrangement is dangerous in tech since it presumes sustained earnings at levels that at a minimum are in doubt and distracts management from its real job of advancing its technology."

    There is actually ZERO evidence for such a statement. In fact, it's likely that Apple will buy back shares and introduce disruptive technology in the future. And that's the right thing to do. Why can't management do both? The iPhone, iPad, and the Mac aren't going away - and their margins are here to stay. these products will continue producing revenues for Apple. New products will likely add some value as well in the longer term.

    You keep making that tired market share argument. If your analysis wasn't spin... I'd actually take what you say into consideration.
    Jan 29, 2014. 08:26 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Disruptive Mobile Payments Could Threaten Google [View article]
    that's what i'm here for :)
    Jan 29, 2014. 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Disruptive Mobile Payments Could Threaten Google [View article]
    It is Apple's. The language I got is from their patent here:
    http://1.usa.gov/1bx1GEu
    But if you scroll down on the link you provided, it in fact says that the patent was transferred to Apple on August 3, 2011. I guess that explains that.
    Jan 28, 2014. 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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