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  • Apple lower amid report of muted China Mobile demand, price concerns [View news story]
    The photos clearly contradict the NYT report. The photos show long lines and packed stores. Clearly more than "a dozen" as reported by NYT. I've always thought of the NYT as an agenda driven newspaper. It seems to me like they'll blatantly manipulate truth to get the results they need.
    Jan 17, 2014. 01:19 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Story: The Beginning Has Arrived [View article]
    If the expectations for the China market is for the Chinese to line up in front of stores, then you're not going to get that. The China market is very different than the US market. Apple is trying to take share in China from competitors... that's a slower process.
    Jan 17, 2014. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Story: The Beginning Has Arrived [View article]
    great point. likely slightly underestimating. i will add to author's pick so people can keep this in mind.
    Jan 16, 2014. 02:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Story: The Beginning Has Arrived [View article]
    "if this has a nice 2014 and goes to $650 I'm going to sell most of my shares because the growth of a giant can only slow"
    If you're looking for aggressive "growth" you might be right. If you're looking for something that has the potential to grow, return a nice dividend and/or still have a soft landing if beta crashes, I think this is the best bet.
    Also, your growth does not only come in the form of "earnings" growth. It could come in the form of share buybacks as well. What other company has $150b sitting in their drawer right now ready to buy back aggressively if shares fall? Less shares outstanding would raise price significantly during recovery.
    Jan 16, 2014. 11:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Story: The Beginning Has Arrived [View article]
    @scott - at the least, my view is that Apple's fundamentals should be reviewed and compared to peers regularly by shareholders .
    Jan 16, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Major Catalysts For Apple In 2014 [View article]
    "2013 was not the best year to be an Apple (AAPL) investor. Overall, the stock only gained 2,18 % which is a measly return (not considering dividends) compared to the Nasdaq Composite which in the same period gained 34,20%."

    Not if you bought at $400 in April! Then you're beating the Nasdaq.
    Jan 16, 2014. 10:29 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple - Is It Losing The Battle Of The Ecosystems? [View article]
    Funny I just wrote a piece saying how the ecosystem is something Apple hasn't even tapped into yet.

    In terms of your statement of: "Apple's stock price has been stuck in a range between $500-550, even as the market makes new highs."

    Not only is your statement false as of this week, but Apple has beaten both the S&P and the Nasdaq in the last 8 months on a relative basis.
    Jan 16, 2014. 08:24 AM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains A Good Short [View article]
    But I'd argue that everything you've mentioned above is well known to the investment and analyst community and has been for about a year now. You're arguing that the markets haven't recognized any of the above yet. I argue that they have and it's precisely for that reason that Apple trades at a discount. My argument is that you're beating a dead horse over and over again when this has already been recognized by the market. My point above is that Apple has some of the smartest people working there and I am sure they're figuring out ways to address the issues above - that's the surprise. What you're arguing is the same old argument you've had for the last 8 months. I mean why keep saying the same thing over and over again? We got it.
    Jan 13, 2014. 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Remains A Good Short [View article]
    "I am an unmitigated Apple bear and make no apologies for being one."

    There are lots of good "bear" arguments out there, but they are usually in conjunction with "bull" or "base" cases. No rational person out there is screaming "sell" on Apple right now. You're likely one of the few. The issue I have with your arguments is that you think that you're smarter than a company with the smartest CEO and employees in the world, a company that has tens of thousands of developers working on apps for it around the clock, that you think you're smarter than some of the most seasoned board members in the world, that you're smarter than the $150 billion in cash that Apple has just sitting there. You think that a company that records sales of $171 billion in a year is about to lose 25% of its value - without offering any good argument. Apple continues to build up its base, it continues to shatter records and you keep making that silly market share argument that has been true since the 1990s. Since you started writing, Apple has exploded UP. Show us the chart of Apple since you started writing bear articles on SA in your next article. Thanks.
    Jan 10, 2014. 01:40 AM | 42 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    Had a chance to read it once more and here's my take.

    I like the initial analysis of "authors" as it gives us a good read on SA authors - but I'll be completely honest with you - use it as a trading tool? Seriously?

    First of all, a 1 yr backtest as you probably already know means you have very weak results, especially since many of the authors are the same person (I think I have about 7 of those long articles and only 1 writer has all the sell articles). You alluded to that in your article - but you should have made that abundantly clear to your audience.

    Second of all, you say that it's as good of an indicator as any other technical indicator out there. No it's not. Because it's not backtested and therefore we have no idea if it works. It likely doesn't. Many indicators are based on extremely well tested data, not a 4 paragraph article on one stock.

    Third of all, once you do have a larger sample size over a much longer period of time, you should check if there is a relationship between SA article bias and stock price? (or whatever your thesis is). My feeling is that there will be a strong correlation between sentiment and price (the opposite of what you're suggesting). Meaning that if everyone is writing that you should buy the stock, it's likely that it makes sense to buy the stock given the information that these people are offering, not that there is "bias" out there.

    I just think you need to bring this down to earth a bit... it's at best very very very incomplete and at very early stages. I woldn't call this an "indicator" just yet, especially since the opposite is likely true.

    And what happens if Michael Blair stops writing? lol
    I'm just stunned that you think this is a good trading tool.
    Dec 13, 2013. 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Seeking Alpha Authors Biased When It Comes To Apple? [View article]
    Woah... did you just go through all those articles and pull that data manually? How long did it take you?
    It is interesting and I appreciate the time you put into it. I generally like data analysis - so thanks.
    Dec 13, 2013. 02:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Would-Be Shorts: Bide Your Time, Apple's Run Will Be Over Soon Enough [View article]
    I am offended. Michael Blair didn't give me a shout out in this article. I gave him a shout out in my article!
    Nov 29, 2013. 04:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's iPhone Losing The Smartphone War? [View article]
    Funny you say 2008/2009, I was making good money shorting Apple UNTIL that one day when a reversal destroyed ALL my gains. It was so powerful and ugly for me that day, that I decided to do a buy and hold and 119. I sold it at 400, then bought back at 500- rode it out to 700, put a trailing stop going into the election, which triggered at 685, and have been buying back since they crashed. There are so many reasons why Apple is the best play in the market right now - I don't really get the short Apple claims.
    Nov 28, 2013. 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's iPhone Losing The Smartphone War? [View article]
    yes, that is why I wrote this article. read some of my other pieces - I've tried to offer some information - like longer term financial expectations. to me it's important to see if Apple is meeting these targets that I've projected - if yes, good - I'll hold, and if not, I then decide what my next plan is.
    Nov 28, 2013. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Memo To Apple: Prepare For Weak Holiday Sales [View article]
    "The stock now trades at an estimated 12.65 earnings, after accounting for Apple's $37 billion in fiscal 2013 net income. The prior year, Apple businesses generated $41.7 billion in net income."

    Cheap shot. Everyone knows that prior refreshes of iP5 & iPad 4 were not as successful as the current iP5S & iPad Air. They're also selling in more geographic segments. Their products also appeal to users with higher degree of buying power (vs. cheaper products). You're asking your audience to expect flat growth going forward - but demand we've already seen for iP5S & iPad Air completely proves your argument wrong. I just don't understand why short Apple authors aren't being honest or realistic.

    I've attached a reasonable model of unit shipment growth in an earlier article (below) - you should have done the same. Just stating that they'll have flat growth without doing due diligence (especially in a short article) appears to me as an unfinished piece.
    Nov 26, 2013. 10:45 AM | 23 Likes Like |Link to Comment