Seeking Alpha

NYC Trader

View as an RSS Feed
View NYC Trader's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Apple's Story: Only The Beginning? [View article]
    hey thanks for your feedback. while my knowledge of Chinese culture is extremely rusty, from what I've read they're extremely excited about the prospects of owning Apple's products. Apple is currently the #1 brand in the world so for the Chinese people, who are facing income inequality, to be able to afford Apple is a huge feat. It proves to them that they've succeeded. That is what I would say sets Apple apart from competitors in China. But note that I said "market opportunity" in my article and only a 20% penetration into 50% of the entire country - that still leaves a lot of room for competitors.
    Apr 12, 2013. 09:08 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Stays Rotten [View article]
    So if having high margins is considered a bad investment, then what is considered a good investment? I don't understand this guy's thesis. The target price argument is flawed because it assumes that the valuation is purely driven by this bizarre ROIC argument (it's not - no stock on Wall Street is). But there are lots of factors driving valuations. Summary: Higher margins=bad because they invite competition? I'd agree if the company was valued at 100x. They're not. They're valued at 7x ex-cash. They're a premium product that trades like BBRY. Silly argument. Why is this guy being invited on CNBC?
    Sep 23, 2013. 08:17 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An iPhablet Would Be Popular But Would Very Likely Reduce Apple's Profits [View article]
    "Apple needs a Phablet"

    No they do not.
    Sep 1, 2013. 07:38 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Reality Bites, So Time To Sell [View article]
    and by the way, he included a small blurb about Apple having higher profits, but no chart showing the market share of profits in the smartphone market. Usually, Apple has over 70% by the 4th quarter (80% in 4Q11 and over 70% in 4Q12) That's the chart that kills this dude's entire argument, which is why he conveniently excluded it. I strongly dislike when people leave out significantly important information for personal gain. Why not give people the good and the bad and let them decide? "Short Apple" authors don't like to do that because it weakens their argument.
    Aug 9, 2013. 07:34 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do You Get When You Buy Netflix? [View article]
    There are good arguments on both sides, but yours isn't one of them.
    MBA analysis? It's called common sense. If you buy something for 90 cents and you sell it for a dollar - netting you 10 cents - then a bigger badder competitor comes in and "undercuts" you to force you into a marginal loss. That is a huge risk, especially when a company is trading at 75x earnings. Would you be comfortable paying Reed Hastings $75 in exchange for a $1's worth of his company if he promised you his company will 'definitely grow'? Add that to the fact that NFLX is hanging on to suppliers. This is a very high risk/high reward stock. To call it MBA analysis is sort of silly.
    Feb 4, 2011. 01:00 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yes, The Nasdaq Bubble Is Definitely Here [View article]
    So this is more complex and I alluded to this in the article. During the dot com, p/e was significantly higher. That's because even the largest constituents like Apple were trading at significant premiums. Today Apple and its value peers, which are the largest components of the Index trade at a deep discount to the Nasdaq p/e. If you take out these stocks, p/e would likely be a lot closer to the bubble levels during the dot com era.
    Feb 21, 2014. 11:25 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    they had one quarter of declining sales in china. i wouldn't say "sales in china are DECLINING" which sounds more like a continued trend - say it like it is.

    "Apple is failing to capture significant market share" - i'm not sure if you're doing this on purpose, but you're not spelling out what they're losing market share of. if you're talking about its operating system, then it makes perfect "economic" sense why one phone that had significant market share of the world's operating systems would lose to an operating system that is given away for free. that has nothing to do with Apple offering a superior hardware product. I've heard your angry anti-Apple buddies use that OS argument before, but it's a silly argument that has nothing to do with Apple's bottom line.

    In fact, Apple still has a commanding dominant share of the smartphone profits.

    Come up with something more original next time as evidence.
    Sep 13, 2013. 10:59 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL +1.6%) roundup: 1) Take this one with a big spoonful of salt: "Some Wall Street sources close to some Apple executives" tell Forbes contributor Gene Marcial some at the company are looking for a replacement for Tim Cook. 2) CIRP estimates the iPhone 5 made up 53% of Q1 U.S. iPhone sales, up slightly from Q4's 50%. Meanwhile, citing Verizon's Q1 iPhone mix, BMO (Outperform) now sees Apple's latest iPhone accounting for 55% of Sep. quarter iPhone sales, down from a prior 70%.  3) A Foxconn worker speaking to China Business claims Apple returned 5M-8M iPhones "due to appearance of substandard or dysfunctional problems." (Citi) (BGC/Avondale[View news story]
    A Forbes contributor says that someone says that people close to Wall Street say that shareholders say that some executives say... riighttt. Ha.
    Apr 22, 2013. 01:36 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Really Doomed? [View article]
    "The profits and success Apple has enjoyed the last couple of years are STILL attributable to Steve Jobs vision."

    Yes and a guy named Henry Ford once had a vision too. Despite "just" refreshes for the last century, Ford continues to sell cars and pay back an impressive dividend to its shareholders. Your suggestion that Cook needs to churn out new gadgets is laughable considering that the iPhone is the highest margin retail product out there
    Mar 24, 2014. 10:09 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Major Catalysts For Apple In 2014 [View article]
    "2013 was not the best year to be an Apple (AAPL) investor. Overall, the stock only gained 2,18 % which is a measly return (not considering dividends) compared to the Nasdaq Composite which in the same period gained 34,20%."

    Not if you bought at $400 in April! Then you're beating the Nasdaq.
    Jan 16, 2014. 10:29 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung's New Strategy Is A Worry For Apple [View article]
    "In the last few quarters, Samsung is gained share in the smartphone market at the cost of Apple but without hurting Apple."

    What exactly does that mean? How can a company gain share at the cost of another company, but not hurt them? It sounds ridiculous. If Apple has no interest in the "cheap phones" market, then they're not losing a thing. When you write your articles, your name appears all over the web and when you make statements like the one above - you're risking losing credibility. Use care and judgment before publishing statements like that. I say this to you constructively.

    One more thing - you state that Samsung's renewed focus into software will supposedly "challenge" Apple. A couple of companies tried that route - how did it work out for them? I like seeing evidence - not cheerleaders.
    Nov 25, 2013. 12:17 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's iPhone Losing The Smartphone War? [View article]
    Well that is incorrect. Why in the world would you assume that? 58% of shipments in 2012 were phones other than Samsung. Not only are you assuming that this enormous amount belongs to Samsung but that companies cheap knockoffs in China are supposedly stealing share from Apple - an assumption that is quite absurd. The correct numbers are the ones I provided above BASED ON THE SURVEY YOU PROVIDED. In 2012, NET, Apple won 12 million more customers from Samsung.
    Nov 22, 2013. 11:49 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's iPhone Losing The Smartphone War? [View article]
    Your math is wrong. This is a 12 month period... so what you're doing is giving Samsung the benefit of 12 month shipments and Apple 1 quarter shipments (and their weakest quarter too!) Apple shipped 137 million iPhones in 2012 and Samsung shipped 216 million. If 7% of Samsung came from iPhone that is 15 million and if 20% of iPhone came from Samsung that is 27 million. Nice try.
    Nov 22, 2013. 11:18 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Huge Ecosystem Blunder [View article]
    Afam, but you're missing the point. Apple is not in the business of selling their phones to people who are looking for cheap stuff. That's why they're a $500 billion company.
    Sep 13, 2013. 12:24 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tim Cook: The (Negative) $250,000,000,000 Man [View article]
    I don't think it's Tim Cook's job to "shape" the market value of Apple's stock price. His job is to make sure the company has strong operating results. Just because the stock is trading on CNBC's schedule, doesn't make it Cook's fault. This is the market. If you can't handle the market losses - maybe go for non-tech stocks. Try staples.
    Apr 19, 2013. 05:01 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment