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NYC Trader

 
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  • Apple's Story: Only The Beginning? [View article]
    while what you say might be true in the near-term, their market share currently reflects a minimal penetration in China (which in my example is 5% of China). income distribution in China very much follows a bell-curved shape and as you move towards the middle of the curve, you've got an enormous opportunity. How can you deny that such a strategy would create huge growth?
    Apr 12 09:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Charting Apple's Relative Underperformance [View article]
    Actually you are incorrect. It is "currently" not. If you want to get into the philosophy of how momentum works, I'd be happy to do that with you. But the problem with your thesis is that its entirely based on a backward looking premise.
    Apr 2 10:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I (Finally) Gave Up on Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    The only reason I hold small portions of JNJ in every portfolio I manage is because it is about as recession-proof as they come. Nobody expects JNJ to be killing it. Most investors I know who hold are in it for the consistent yield. With that said, as yields on other instruments rise, sure, go ahead and rebalance.
    Mar 4 10:12 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Files for IPO: Potential Threat to Sirius XM? [View article]
    You are right, Pandora is having trouble monetizing their model, but their operating losses are decreasing over time and their "listeners" time has tripled over a year. It's an impressive under the radar attack and if they continue to spread at the same growth, they might just be able to use the projected razor thin margins to cover costs and attack the OTHER companies' subscribers.

    In terms of data plans, we all know that more people are using unlimited plans and there is obviously enough demand out there that 3 major car companies redesigned their vehicles to include Pandora in them. Do you really believe that SIRI management is not concerned about that?

    "I believe their challenge vis a vis subscription is the very specific nature of what they offer. How much would people be willing to pay for customized stations based on music choice algorithms alone not matter how cool that one capability is?"
    They're pretty set on offering talk radio as well.

    The more people continue to use Pandora, the more they become a threat to SIRI. Don't underestimate the value of free.
    Feb 13 07:31 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pandora Files for IPO: Potential Threat to Sirius XM? [View article]
    Mental,
    Your examples aren't really that great - because the revenue dynamics in Coke/Pepsi and BK/McD are identical. They've survived by adjusting marketing and in rare instances used price wars. When a competitor uses "free" as the model to attack a subscription based service - and 86% of SIRI revenue comes from subscriptions - that is quite a serious threat. Yes, maybe you and thousands of others would continue paying and NEVER switch, but to say that no one would consider switching is irrational and illogical.
    Feb 13 03:13 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Financials: Polished Exterior but Check the Oil [View article]
    I am all for fair analysis and if there was some sort of an interesting thesis here, I would fully respect it, but this guy is trying too hard to make this analysis into a Star Trek theme with rockets, oil, fuel, and the engine getting us there. And then of course there is the dubious "A- earnings quality." What is that? If you're trying to create your "brand," which is what you're doing with the whole "Merriam Report" thing, pushing a "Sell" rating on one of the strongest global companies (with an extremely explosive earnings growth) and not adequately supporting your thesis is not the way to do it.
    Feb 10 02:41 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Do You Get When You Buy Netflix? [View article]
    I think you make great points about why Netflix is a good company, but you're ignoring some key financial data that would possibly make this a really horrible investment, especially for an "early retirement fund"
    Is it worth $300? $400? When would you sell?
    Feb 4 08:44 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Internet TV War and Its Potential Casualties [View article]
    I left certain players out because it's very difficult to get hard data on private companies. Your point only adds to the argument that Netflix is facing an even tougher battle, however. More share to divide among other players.

    You say: "Netflix is the best value in demand video today, bar none - best price, best selection, best quality."
    Let me ask you a question, where does Netflix get its content? Do they own it or were they getting the content from providers at a cost? Do you think there is a possibility that this content cost might increase thus decreasing the already thin Netflix margins? It's irrational to say "NO" because that is one of the main issues of not owning your own content. Read up on Porter's 5 forces and understand that when you have suppliers, there are high risks that under an extremely competitive environment, the suppliers have a lot of power.

    My follower count went up. You should join too. Sounds like you need all the advice you can get.
    Jan 6 12:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Internet TV War and Its Potential Casualties [View article]
    1. I am not short Netflix.
    2. Everything I said above is true...and the last sentence is my opinion. It remains to be seen whether NFLX is a sustainable stock.

    Now, BMW says: "SEC and FBI shoudl look into their practices and see who represent." Really? What laws did I break exactly? Should I become a doctor or a lawyer before I can start writing my opinions on Seeking Alpha? Or perhaps I should be censored so you could trade freely. Is that what you're suggesting? I've been analyzing companies for quite some time now, so I am fairly certain that I am qualified to dissect the companies and present the risks.

    Your whole statement sounds like something an irrational investor would say when he gets emotional about a certain position.
    Jan 6 11:09 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Competitors Are Like Piranhas Chewing Up Apple [View article]
    I just looked at this Moto G. It looks like the watered down version of the Moto X. This is NOT a premium offering. They're attracting the discount market - not the market Apple targets, which will be more of an issue for Samsung than Apple.
    Apr 8 04:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple Really Doomed? [View article]
    Really? How are the Mac margins relative to PCs? You better take a look at what happened to Dell before you make such predictions.
    Mar 24 02:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of 2 Nasdaqs: This Bubble Is Real [View article]
    "Still it does not add value to blindly cry bubble for every stock that rises."

    Your entire index is being fueled by irrational rising - as I showed. 71/100 stocks are trading at an average P/E of 43, but that number is small in comparison to the actual Nasdaq Composite Index's stocks a large portion of which are trading way above that average of 43. I don't believe the Nasdaq should be trading at multiples this high and the only reason the entire index looks OK is because the value stocks are dragging down the P/E significantly.

    In terms of Amazon trading at 30X cash flow, there are some funky numbers in that operating cash flow. If you're comfortable with that valuation method, be my guest. I'm not. It also doesn't compare favorably to Apple's P/CF of 9X.
    Feb 28 10:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of 2 Nasdaqs: This Bubble Is Real [View article]
    You are correct. CAGR: 27%. I will ask them to edit that. Thanks for pointing that out.
    Feb 28 09:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: 15% Drop - Only The Beginning Of Crash [View article]
    well you have to expect "fires" to keep up with the ramp-up. they'll go up relative to their production. the issue is the amount of publicity they're getting. i'm sure there was a mercedes on fire somewhere in the world during this past week. nobody really cares. tesla fire? boom... news, social media, huge publicity. the problem is not the fires - it's the amount of publicity they're getting. i actually don't think the fires are a huge issue for the company.
    Nov 7 10:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Still No. 1 But Slipping Fast [View article]
    yes -3%... did you read the point I was making? iPad 4 release was Q113 - Y/Y growth? +48%. iPad 3 release on Q212 Y/Y growth? 151%. A7 is getting much better reviews than predecessors. I'd expect solid growth Y/Y especially since many more retail stores now than last year + more locations.
    Nov 1 01:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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